Who Can Reach the BCS Title Game? A Plea for Total College Football Chaos

It's the middle of November, which means that we are just a few weeks away from hotly debating which teams got screwed out of the BCS National Championship Game.

Let's get a head start on that debate by figuring out exactly which scenarios can screw over which teams the most: chaos!

CHALK

According to the latest BCS standings, LSU and Oklahoma State, the last two undefeated teams from BCS conferences, are in line to face off in the national title game. Both teams have some tough hurdles to leap in the coming weeks, but the least destructive scenario seems to be that both LSU and OSU win out, creating an undefeated national title game between the best defense in football and, probably, the best offense.

Not only would the game be entertaining, after losses this weekend by Stanford and Boise State, nobody will have a legitimate complaint about not getting into the title game (sorry Houston). Chalk may be boring, but at least it will be something different this year.

S…E…CHAOS

With three of the top six teams in the BCS standings conferencing in the Southeastern region of our great football nation, it's hard to imagine the national title game without at least one team from the SEC. In fact, there's a more likely chance that the BCS championship will have two teams from the SEC before it has none.

Simply put, if Oklahoma State loses, Alabama will have to hold off Oregon and Oklahoma in the computer rankings to finish in the second position in the BCS (assuming there is no way anyone would drop Alabama down in the human polls should they win out).

Now, there still are a few ways that the SEC could actually get shut out of the title game. First, LSU could lose to Arkansas, creating a three-way tie for tops in the SEC West with each of those teams having 1-1 records against the other. In essence, the SEC tie-breaker rules would determine which team would presumably be headed to the national title game…assuming that team beats Georgia (or, potentially, South Carolina) in the SEC Championship Game.

The last tiebreaker for determining which team goes to the SEC title game is—you guessed it—BCS ranking. So if LSU were to lose later in the year to Arkansas, Alabama would likely go to the SEC title game and potentially the national title game, despite the fact that LSU beat them. That is, of course, unless Arkansas potential win over LSU would catapult them in the rankings (and computers) ahead of Alabama.

Another way: Alabama finishes the season with Auburn, and rivalry games are always wacky, so what if LSU and Alabama both lose in the last week of the season? Arkansas would likely go to the SEC title game, but would that raise their BCS ranking high enough to pass Oregon?

That scenario is crazy, but it's not as crazy at this: What if LSU finishes the regular season undefeated, but loses in the SEC title game to Georgia or South Carolina? Would LSU have enough points in the computer rankings after beating Alabama, Arkansas and Oregon that they could lose the SEC title game and still get to the national championship?

Or would a loss in the conference title game put LSU out of the top two, meaning that Alabama could get to the national title game when it didn't even play for its own conference title. How is that possible? Well, Alabama would have lost to a better team than LSU, even though there's no way LSU could lose to a better team than Alabama because LSU can't lose to itself.

It's very unlikely, but there is an outside chance that LSU could be watching a national title game between two one-loss teams—Alabama and Oregon—where both of their loses came at the hands of one-loss LSU.

Chaos.

BIG 12 TITLE GAME

Without a real title game this season after Colorado and Nebraska took off, leaving the Big 12 with just 10 teams (for some reason the NCAA has a ridiculous rule that conferences need 12 teams to host a title game which, by the way, has brought on way more of the conference realignment mess than anyone talks about), the de facto conference title game will come when Oklahoma State faces Oklahoma on Dec. 3.

Assuming Oklahoma State doesn't lay an egg against Iowa State and Oklahoma takes care of Baylor and Iowa State—the title runs through Ames!—the winner of the Oklahoma State-Oklahoma game will be BCS-bound.

As we said before, if Oklahoma State runs the table, there is no way they won't be in the title game. A win over Oklahoma will only make their BCS resume stronger. But if Oklahoma wins that game, would that be enough to put the Sooners into the national title picture?

The short answer: probably not. Oklahoma lost to Texas Tech, at home. That's the same Texas Tech team that just lost 66-6 to Oklahoma State in Lubbock. Even if a win for the Sooners would put them ahead of their cross-state rival in the BCS standings, it's unlikely they will leapfrog Oregon or Alabama in the BCS standings. Even if they beat the second-ranked team in the country, Oklahoma will need a lot of help to get to the title game.

As for Oklahoma State losing to Oklahoma and still getting to the title game, it's really unlikely given the time of year of that loss and the inability for the Cowboys to respond. Besides, while losing to Oklahoma is not like losing to Texas Tech, it's not like losing to LSU either. The other two teams in line for a title shot can boast a loss to LSU on their resumes, putting Oregon or Alabama ahead of a one-loss Oklahoma State.

PAC-12 HAS ONE SHOT

Had Stanford beating Oregon, the Cardinal would have been on the inside track at the national title game. Alas, the Ducks outclassed their division rival, giving the Pac-12 little chance to make the national title game.

Let's look at this realistically: If Oklahoma State loses, the voters will have to decide which one-loss team should face LSU between Oregon, Alabama and Oklahoma. Even if the voters put Oregon ahead of Alabama, wins over USC and Oregon State won't put the Ducks ahead of Alabama in the BCS computer rankings.

Oregon is as high as they are going to get right now in the rankings, clearly on the outside of the national title game picture unless two teams ahead of them lose. In order for Oregon to get to the BCS title game, they'll likely need Arkansas to beat LSU and hope the SEC chaos we outlined earlier takes place in some capacity.

If an SEC team is in the title game, Oregon will be hoping beyond hope that Oklahoma State loses and Oklahoma somehow doesn't leapfrog the Ducks in the process.

The shame of it all is that if Oklahoma State doesn't make the title game and LSU does, which would you rather see again: LSU-Alabama or LSU-Oregon? I'm not super excited about a 9-6 field goal kicking contest to determine the national championship. Are you? 

THE REST OF THE BCS

Boise State really made the BCS a lot less chaotic this year. Sure, Houston may sneak into an at-large spot but nobody thinks they should be in the title game like an undefeated Boise State team would deserve. The Big East doesn't even have a team ranked in the BCS top 25. The Big Ten boasts five teams in the rankings, but none higher than Michigan State at 15.

Only the ACC has an extreme outside shot at the national title game with either Clemson or Virginia Tech finishing the season as a one-loss contender (that's assuming Clemson can beat in-state rival South Carolina to end the regular season).

The two teams are basically joined at the hip, one slot apart in the Harris Poll, USA Today poll and computer rankings with Clemson currently seventh in the BCS, one spot ahead of Virginia Tech. Nice work by the USA Today voters, by the way, who have Tech one spot ahead of Clemson despite identical records and the Hokies' only loss coming at the hands (paws?) of the Tigers.

Finishing the season with one loss is one heck of an effort, but it won't be enough to get into the national title conversation unless every chaotic scenario above takes place over the next three weeks.

Regardless of who you root for, unless it's LSU or Oklahoma State, aren't you really rooting for chaos?

Go Chaos!