BCS Projections: Top Teams Sure to Be Snubbed by BCS If Season Ended Today

The BCS is a fickle beast and is sure to change plenty between now and the end of the 2011 college football season.

For the sake of argument, however, let's say the powers that be brought the season to a shocking close today. In that event, we'd likely have LSU and Oklahoma State duking it out for the national championship, Alabama facing Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl, Oklahoma hosting Virginia Tech in the Fiesta Bowl, Oregon squaring off against Michigan State in the Rose Bowl and Clemson taking on undefeated Houston in the Orange Bowl.

A rough projection, perhaps, but not exactly one that's difficult to fathom at this point.

In that case, the best of the rest, including these teams, would be sprinkled around the rest of the ever-lengthening bowl season for fans everywhere to enjoy, not to mention gripe about.

Stanford

Should a defeat to a team as good as Oregon, however wide a 23-point margin may seem, be enough to keep Stanford out of the BCS entirely?

A 21-point loss to a similar Ducks squad didn't keep the Cardinal out of the Orange Bowl last year, but that was amidst a much weaker field overall, with the rest of the one-loss club that played in the BCS last season consisting of Wisconsin and Ohio State.

This time around, Andrew Luck and company would have to contend with the likes of Alabama, Oklahoma and Virginia Tech—all of whom are currently ranked ahead of Stanford—for at-large bids.

Tough sledding, to be sure, but the Cardinal don't have the benefit of time healing their wounds like they did in 2010, when the loss to Oregon came in early October rather than mid-November.

Arkansas

Arkansas is shaping up to be this year's version of last year's Michigan State squad—a strong team from a conference that already has two schools in BCS bowls.

The selection rules stipulate that a conference can only have as many as two teams among the top five bowls in college football, meaning the Razorbacks, despite their near-sparkling 9-1 record.

As such, it'll be off to the Cotton Bowl for Bobby Petrino's boys, who can only hope that SEC commissioner Mike Slive will find room in his heart to realign the Hogs with the East division once Missouri and Texas A&M make their respective debuts next season.

Boise State

Boise State currently finds itself in practically the exact same position as it did at the end of the 2010 season—ranked 10th in the BCS and coming off a disappointing loss that could've been prevented with one final, more accurate kick.

Last year's Broncos had hoped to sneak into the national title game as well, but alas, the role of BCS buster was not meant to be played by Kellen Moore and potato-country pals.

No team from a non-AQ conference has ever cracked the BCS with a blemish on its record, and with an undefeated Houston team already all but guaranteed to buck the system this season, it's tough to imagine the powers that be having stomach enough to allow a one-loss team to serve as a fly in the proverbial ointment.

Rank	Team	BCS Average
1	LSU	.9933
2	Oklahoma State	.9642
3	Alabama	.9099
4	Oregon	.8755
5	Oklahoma	.8400
6	Arkansas	.7974
7	Clemson	.6935
8	Virginia Tech	.6755
9	Stanford	.6747
10	Boise State	.5959
11	Houston	.567
12	South Carolina	.528
13	Kansas State	.497
14	Georgia	.453
15	Michigan State	.439
16	Nebraska	.382
17	Wisconsin	.333
18	Michigan	.295
19	TCU	.252
20	Southern Mississippi	.245
21	Penn State	.230
22	Baylor	.136
23	Texas	.120
24	Auburn	.079
25	Florida State	.071