NFL Week 10 Picks: Stone-Cold Locks for Elite Sunday Matchups

You won’t find a better slate of games all season, which is why this is a special rundown of stone -cold locks you can take to the bank.

Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)

This will be a phenomenal shootout highlighted by Fred Jackson and DeMarco Murray running wild. If you’re looking for an easy over/under spread to grab, take the over 48 here.

Stevie Johnson and Dez Bryant will annihilate their opposing defenders while Scott Chandler and Jason Witten abuse safeties in the middle of the field.

This isn’t to say the defenses won’t play a role in this contest. Both defenses rely on creating pressure up front on the quarterback, so expect turnovers, which could lead to more touchdowns and ideal field position.

Considering Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tony Romo are at the helm, you have to take the man who is prone to making less mistakes. Romo will throw at least two picks in this one.

This is a gimme game—the Bills are getting too many points despite being on the road. If it’s a shootout, take the points and smile for the rest of the day.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (Pick ‘Em)

You can’t ask for a better NFC South game at this point in the year. This game could ultimately decide the division, so look for both teams to beat the living hell out of each other.

In a classy, non-Steelers-vs.-Ravens kind of way, of course. This is your definition of a finesse game. While the Cowboys and Bills will see some stellar defensive plays, this contest may only see one—the one that decides the duel.

Drew Brees and Matt Ryan will be slinging the rock nearly 80 times in this contest. Mark Ingram still isn’t healthy, so look for Sean Payton to rely on Darren Sproles’ speed to dissect the Falcons.

Julio Jones and Roddy White form a devastating WR duo—one New Orleans won’t be able to stop. Jones is coming off the best game of his young career against Indianapolis and the worst thing a defense can see is a confident rookie of Jones’ physical caliber.

Luckily for Atlanta, the Falcons have a ground-and-pound attack of their own with Michael Turner. We’ll see a heavy dose of the former ‘Burner’ turned ‘prodder’ as Atlanta keeps Brees off the field long enough to secure a victory late.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)

Nobody would have guessed the Bengals would be 6-2 right now and tied for first place in the AFC North—not even Bengals owner Mike Brown.

Yeah, that’s how low their expectations are.

Yet here they are in the biggest game of their season against the Steelers, who lost a heartbreaker at home against Baltimore on Sunday. This is essentially the Bengals’ home playoff game for the season—and they’ll lose.

Mike Tomlin is too good of a motivator. The crowd will be behind the Bengals all game, but the inexperienced Andy Dalton will feel the pressure from James Harrison all game. A.J. Green will be doubled-teamed throughout the afternoon and will fail to score a touchdown thanks to stellar safety play by Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark.  

Cedric Benson gets shut down in the run game as Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendehall break Cincinnati’s collective heart.

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)

This isn’t the most "elite" matchup, but it’s an important one nonetheless.

Tampa Bay is looking to stay afloat in the NFC South. If it loses at home, it’ll face a rough road to the playoffs.

And it will.

Houston is looking to take a stranglehold on the division and a big road win will put the Texans in prime position to enjoy their first playoff appearance in franchise history.

Andre Johnson (hamstring) is expected to miss the game, but that won’t matter. Aqib Talib will shut down whichever bum he plays against (Kevin Walter or Jacoby Jones), but Matt Schaub will dissect Tampa’s secondary with Owen Daniels.

The key is Arian Foster, who is a monster on the ground and through the air. Expect at least 150 total yards and two touchdowns out of him. Also look for Ben Tate to play a role on the ground, rumbling for at least 75 yards.

Josh Freeman (thumb), Mike Williams (thigh) and LeGarrette Blount (knee) are all banged up to an extent. That’s never good when you have to play against Wade Phillips’ pressure-heavy defense.

Take the Texans.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)

We’re heading back to the scene of the crime—where the Lions lost Week 1 last year due to the most controversial non-touchdown catch you’ll ever see.

This time, the Lions will win handedly. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson present the best QB-WR combination in the game right now. Megatron is such a matchup nightmare that the Bears will be forced to triple-team him throughout this contest, though it will all be for naught. Chicago did a fine job trying to shut down Megatron in Week 5, but he still managed to catch five passes for 130 yards and a score.

Rookie Titus Young exploited Denver’s secondary in Week 8 and will be able to do so again in Week 10.

Jahvid Best won’t be available as he recovers from a concussion, but the Lions won’t even need a rushing attack to win this playoff-atmosphere-filled contest.

Chicago is coming off a huge road victory against Philadelphia. Detroit and Ndamukong Suh had two weeks to prepare for MVP candidate Matt Forte and will force Jay Cutler to beat them.

The Lions have a far superior pass-rush than the Eagles and will make fans remember the Cutler who sat on the sidelines during the 2010-11 NFC Championship game.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

The Giants are coming off a fantastic victory against the Patriots.

Naturally, traveling to the West Coast would spell disaster. This isn’t exactly a trap game for the Giants considering they’re on the road and underdogs, but it’s odd they're receiving 3.5 points.

Clearly nobody has faith in this team after their heroic Week 9 upset.

Still, the Giants and 49ers play similar ball. Both teams pride themselves on great defense considering they boast two of the best defenders in the league in Justin Tuck and Patrick Willis. Both teams also pride themselves on smash-mouth football with Brandon Jacobs and Frank Gore.

Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) is unlikely to play, but Gore is dealing with an ankle injury of his own. Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) is likely to play for the Giants, but Braylon Edwards (knee, shoulder) is dealing with an injury as well.

Considering each squad's style of play, look for a rather low-scoring, closely played contest. Even if the Giants lose, they won’t lose by more than three points. Feel confident taking the points and the under.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1.5)

A three-game losing streak for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady’s Pats?

Yes, sir.

I never thought I’d see the day when the Pats lost three games in a row, but the Jets are out for blood this week. The score wouldn’t dictate it, but they disappointed mightily in Foxboro earlier this season.

Expect the Jets to shut down Wes Welker better than anybody has this season. Rex Ryan’s immense pressure on Brady—similar to the Giants’ game plan last week—will force Brady to make quick decisions and errant throws with the rock.

Belichick’s defense is not suited for a slobberknocker slugfest or a shootout. Look for LaDainian Tomlinson and Jeremy Kerley to make a massive impact as the Pats look to shut out Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes.

At home under the lights looking up at the stars, the Jets will not disappoint their raucous crowd and will jump ahead of their most hated foes in the division.  

Spreads Courtesy of Covers.com