Oregon Ducks vs. Stanford Cardinal: Some Random Pregame Thoughts

There is one critical statistical battle the University of Oregon football team almost always loses: time of possession. They rank 120th in the nation, averaging just under 24 minutes per game.

While it would be nice if the Ducks could maintain possession for at least half of the game, burning up the clock—for possession's sake alone—is hardly "critical" from Oregon's perspective. The Ducks, after all, have been quite successful in getting the most out of their meager offensive minutes.

And yet, week after week, opponents continue to gear their game strategy around ball-control and keeping Oregon's offense off of the field.

Trouble is, any team must eventually surrender the ball—by way of a punt, turnover, or score. And Oregon's offense just doesn't need a lot of time to do its work.

I crunched some numbers and came up with a statistical category borrowed from pro basketball: points per minute of possession. Oregon must be near the top of the list nationally with a 1.95. This is offensive efficiency defined.

For comparison, by my calculations, the explosive offense of No. 2-ranked Oklahoma State produces 1.91. Stanford, utilizing a less frantic offensive scheme, cranks out 1.45 points per minute of possession.

This statistic, while interesting, was used only to demonstrate the fallacy of using slow-down tactics against certain up-tempo teams.

The second prong of the ball-control argument is that it wears the opposing defense down. In most cases, this is true. In Oregon's case, not so much.

The Ducks defense has proven its ability to absorb those ball-control tactics quite well, being one of the most opportunistic (3.4 forced turnovers per game), prolific (340 return yards and 2 TDs from interceptions alone) and well-conditioned (they practice against Oregon's blur offense) units in the Pac-12.

So how will Stanford prepare for their crucial game against the Ducks this Saturday?

They will probably follow conventional wisdom and hope Heisman candidate Andrew Luck can guide their offense on long, sustained drives, eventually getting deep inside their opponent's turf—which has been a virtual Mother Lode for Stanford all season.

Yes, the red zone has been as good as gold for the Cardinal. Try to digest these incredible stats:

Stanford is 10-for-10 on fourth down conversion attempts.

Stanford has scored on 52-of-52 attempts inside the red zone.

Stanford has made 14-of-15 field goal attempts.

This should tell you all you need to know about Oregon's defensive strategy—do whatever it takes to keep the Cardinal in poor field position and out of the red zone. For the Ducks, the resurgence of a pressuring, stunting defense which resulted in six sacks and two interceptions in Husky stadium couldn't have come at a better time.

Oregon's "bend-but-don't-break" prevent defensive philosophy may even have to be shelved this week against a team which operates with such perfection close to the end zone. Speed and conditioning are one thing, but the Ducks will have to show their physical side in this one.

All the hype surrounding this game is legitimate. Make no mistake—as important as the Pac-12 championship may be—both teams are looking a little higher. And any possible path to a national championship berth goes through Palo Alto.

It should be a good one.

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