Bowl Predictions 2012: Who's Set to Stick Atop BCS Standings?

The latest BCS standings are out, and after 10 weeks, there's been the usual mix of expected results and shocking upsets all combined with rumblings of discontent.

However, as the BCS picture becomes ever clearer, the prognostications should become easier, right?

OK, so maybe not. We've finished Week 10, but the season is far from over and there are a number of crucial games remaining for each team in the Top 10.

Let's take a look at our own predictions on who is set to stick atop the BCS standings in 2011.

No. 10 Virginia Tech

The Virginia Tech Hokies are back in the Top 10 of the BCS rankings for the first time since 2007, and the only loss thus far for the 8-1 Hokies is against No. 9 Clemson.

The Hokies are in the driver's seat in the ACC Coastal Division, and this weekend's matchup against Georgia Tech could all but cement a berth in the ACC Championship Game (although the Hokies will also need to knock of Virginia on Nov. 26 unless the Cavaliers lose prior to that game).

The luster has come off a Georgia Tech team that many were very high on earlier this season, while Virginia Tech has been steadily plugging along.

After escaping a near disaster against Duke on Oct. 29 (a 14-10 victory for Virginia Tech), it will be interesting to see how Frank Beamer used the off week to instill a sense of urgency to his team.

No. 8 Arkansas

The No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks fended off then-No. 10 South Carolina in Fayetteville this past weekend to maintain their outside shot at capturing the SEC West this season.

The Hogs have two relatively easy games against Tennessee and Mississippi State before the the regular season finale at No. 1 LSU.

The only loss for the Razorbacks so far this season was to No. 3 Alabama way back on Sept. 24 in Tuscaloosa. If by some chance the pesky piggies defeat LSU at the end of the month, it is likely three teams—Arkansas, LSU and Alabama—will finish with identical 11-1 (7-1) records. If that happens, the BCS rankings will determine which team plays in the SEC Championship Game, and it's not crazy to think Arkansas could be that team.

However, even if the Razorbacks don't make it to Atlanta or fall to LSU at the end of the season, you can still count on the Hogs remaining high in the BCS. After all, Alabama fell a whopping one spot after losing to LSU at home. You would have to believe that losing to LSU on the road wouldn't cause much more of a drop in the BCS.

Still, the Hogs will need a ton of human voter help to leapfrog at least one of the two SEC teams currently ranked ahead of them in the BCS.  Otherwise, Arkansas will not be making it back-to-back BCS trips.

No. 7 Oregon

Before the season began, many people believed Oregon was one of those “teams of destiny.”

After a narrow loss to Auburn in last season's BCS National Championship Game, the Ducks were looking for redemption, and they certainly had the talent pool to make their national championship dreams a reality.

But after a Week 1 loss to LSU, the Ducks have been all but ignored in the national championship discussion.

That may prove to be an oversight, especially after we discover which team is the class of the Pac-12 North after this weekend's Oregon-Stanford showdown.

While the pundits have split into two camps over Stanford, one saying the Cardinal are awesome with the other saying they haven't proven anything to anyone yet, the discussion about Oregon is fairly universally positive.

The Ducks have a potent offense, and defense is certainly adequate to win games considering the points generated by the offense.

It will prove difficult for even an Andrew Luck-led offense to score enough points over 60 minutes to top the production from the offensive weapons Chip Kelly has at his disposal.

After defeating Stanford, the Ducks will take a leap forward in the standings, and will be a lock for the Pac-12 Championship Game.

No. 5 Boise State

Is there anyone out there who doesn't believe Boise State can put up another 12-0 regular season?

The Broncos seem to be stuck at No. 5 in the BCS, even though they jumped one spot in the B/R Top 25 to No. 4 (while Alabama fell to No. 5).

Still, the Broncos are starting to see a little love from the BCS computers, which placed them at No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 5, No. 5 and No. 6, respectively. Only LSU, Oklahoma State and Alabama rank higher in the computers, and the Broncos are tied with the Sooners.

It seems clear that Boise State is headed for a BCS bowl this season. The only remaining question is which bowl.

If you're a fan of Boise State, or just want to see them get that long-awaited and overdue shot at a BCS championship, you'll likely be rooting for Arkansas, Oregon and Oklahoma down the stretch. Those are the three teams that have a legitimate shot to knock off three of the four teams currently ranked ahead of Boise state in the BCS.

If you haven't had the opportunity to watch Boise State this season, the Nov. 12 showdown with the Horned Frogs from TCU (ranked No. 24 in the coaches poll) will be a great opportunity to catch up on the exploits of Kellen Moore and company.

Moore, a Heisman contender again this season, broke the all-time wins record by a starting quarterback this past weekend with Boise's win at UNLV.

While many people like to argue that Boise State doesn't play the best of the best every week, that milestone of 46 wins is no less impressive. No FBS quarterback can say they have won as many games as Kellen Moore. The only thing left now is to see if Moore can hit 50 (which would require a 13-0 record by Boise State this season).

An undefeated Boise State will find its way back to the BCS, and combined with a loss by three of any four teams ranked ahead of the Broncos, that trip could be to New Orleans.

No. 3 Alabama

The Crimson Tide have their loss, and it was handed to them in rather surprising fashion by LSU in Tuscaloosa this past weekend.

There were plenty of people who were picking the Tigers to win this past weekend, but no one expected a complete absence of touchdowns.

When B/R polled the college football featured columnists, more FC's selected Alabama to win (44) than picked LSU (30), and absolutely no one picked a single-digit score for either team. There were a whole host of 17-14 picks, but John Rozum had the closest final score, 12-10, LSU.

Predictably, the Tide fell only one spot in the BCS rankings, to No. 3. While a number of people may be upset with this almost imperceptible decline, just remember back to 2006 when No. 2 Michigan lost on the road to No. 1 Ohio State. The Wolverines also dropped just one spot in the following BCS ranking.

But also remember that the arguments for a rematch were flying around after that game, too. And the general consensus was that Michigan “had its shot” and lost. Michigan didn't deserve a rematch, and a one-loss Florida team was selected to play Ohio State in the BCS National Championship Game over the Wolverines.

Similarly, Alabama had its shot and lost. As the season winds down, expect the voters to keep Alabama out of the top two, and the Tide will have to settle for the early game in New Orleans.

No. 2 Oklahoma State

By this point in the season, we all know that Oklahoma State doesn't have much of a defense.

Of course, the Cowboys haven't needed one, as they average 50.1 points per game against some top-of-the-line competition.

The old adage “defense wins championships” is usually true, but the Pokes may prove to be the inevitable exception to the rule. When you score better than 50 points per game, who needs defense? The question isn't whether or not anyone can score on Oklahoma State, it's can they score enough?

From here on out through the end of the regular season, the answer will be no. Oklahoma State will finish a 12-0 season, finally claim a Big 12 title and earn a ticket to New Orleans.

No. 1 LSU

LSU has now gotten past its biggest test of the year, Alabama.

It's difficult to walk into Tuscaloosa and walk out with a victory, but the No. 1 Tigers managed to do just that against the then-No. 2 Crimson Tide. So what's next?

Realistically, the Tigers have just one meaningful game left on their schedule: a Nov. 25 visit from No. 8 Arkansas.

Is it impossible for the Razorbacks to beat the Tigers in Baton Rouge? Has any No. 8-or-lower ranked team ever defeated a No. 1 team? Of course.

But is it likely?

We all watched two great defenses battle it out on Saturday, and the result was a 9-6 overtime win for the LSU Tigers. Those types of games are so rare, we were only able to find one other example of such a low scoring overtime game: a 2003 game between FCS UC-Davis and Division II Grand Valley State.

So, what's more important here? The fact that LSU held Alabama to six points, or the fact that LSU was only able to score nine of its own?

If the polling holds, a BCS National Championship Game matchup between suffocating defensive LSU against 50.1 points per game Oklahoma State should be wildly entertaining.

The BCS Projections

Finally, we'll boil it all down for you in one spot.  Here are our current BCS bowl projections.

Rose: Oregon vs. Michigan State

Fiesta: Boise State vs. Oklahoma

Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

Sugar: Alabama vs. Stanford

BCS National Championship Game: LSU vs. Oklahoma State