TCU vs Boise State: What the Horned Frogs Must Do to Pull off the Upset

Over the past few seasons TCU and Boise State have given us some great games. As the two premier non-automatic qualifiers in all of college football, the unofficial title of best mid-major has always been on the line.

This year's contest could be very different as this year there is a clear-cut favorite: the Boise State Broncos. The Broncos come into this game as a two-touchdown favorite at home ,and for the Frogs to pull off the victory would be one of the biggest upsets of the year.

To win, the Frogs are going to have to play the perfect game and get some things to go their way. These are the keys to a TCU upset that would define its season.

Quick Start

In both of the Frogs' losses this year, to Baylor and SMU, they found themselves way behind early in the game. They were able to close the gap both times, only to fall short in the waning minutes or in overtime.

If they fall behind early to the Broncos? It's over.

Kellen Moore is simply too efficient and Boise is too well coached to give up leads. If you want to beat Boise you've gotta be in it from the beginning and preferably build a lead.

The Broncos have blown plenty of teams out in the second half and the Frogs should not expect any kind of comeback should they find themselves down even two scores in the early going. It will be game, set and match.

TCU must come out ready and capitalize on any opportunities that present themselves and make Boise State play from behind, a position it is mostly unfamiliar with this season.

Control the Clock

When you think of Boise, you think of offense. While the Broncos' defense tends to be underrated due to the explosiveness of their offense, they can't score when they aren't on the field.

If TCU wants to have a chance it must keep Kellen Moore out of rhythm by keeping him off the field. TCU's greatest strength on offense is the offensive line and its ability to open holes for whoever happens to be running the ball for TCU.

TCU has incredible depth at the running back position with three running backs with more than 500 yards rushing on the season. With a solid offensive line and a stable of capable backs, TCU has a formidable rushing attack even for the top-tier defensive line of Boise State. How this matchup plays out will determine if the Frogs stand a chance.

The running game can't be the only way that TCU controls the clock either; it must utilize its short passing game. Using screens and quick-hitting slants will keep Boise from stacking the middle of the field to stuff the run.

Pachall Must Play Perfect

Sophomore Casey Pachall has all the tools to play just as well, if not better than his predecessor, Andy Dalton. Pachall is bigger and more athletic than Dalton but obviously lacks the savvy and experience possessed by the older Dalton.

He'll have to do his best Dalton impression in this one.

He's done a good job of that so far this year, throwing for 19 touchdowns to only five interceptions and completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. In order to win this one he must play flawless. You can't give this Boise offense any extra opportunities.

While game management and ball security are priority No. 1, Pachall must also be ready to take some shots down field when they are presented. Forcing them or failing to take advantage will decide whether the Frogs can keep this one close or not.

Win the Turnover Battle

This will be the highest mountain TCU must climb if it wants to go to Bronco Stadium and eliminate Boise from the national title picture.

TCU's secondary has been its Achilles' heel all year. In this game, it must take a huge step forward.

Both of these teams take extremely good care of the football and both starting quarterbacks have only thrown five interceptions all year. The team that can break that trend and get a turnover from an interception or two will hold a great advantage in this game.

Both defenses play with great physicality, so the chance of forced fumbles are always there, too. This could be one of the "lucky" bounces the Frogs may need to find a way to win.

Pressure, Pressure, Pressure

This year's edition of the TCU defense seems to lack one thing all TCU defenses tend to have: nastiness.

If it wants to disrupt this juggernaut of an offense, it must bring nasty back.

Not much has worked defensively against the Broncos, but the teams that have had some success slowing them down at times found ways to put pressure on Kellen Moore. If anyone can come up with ways to put pressure on Moore, it's defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas.

Bumpas would do well to dial up a few exotic blitzes here and there to keep the ever-accurate Moore on the run so he can't set his feet and throw.

If TCU fails to aggressively get after the quarterback, Moore will sit back and carve this secondary for 500 yards—not a desirable outcome.

You can't blitz Moore all the time, though, because he has elite intelligence and can also throw it around against the blitz. Getting pressure with the front four on non-blitzing plays will be vital to keeping Moore off balance.

Finish Strong

If TCU is able to do all of these things and take a close game into the fourth quarter, it must continue to finish games strong. It will take a full 60 minutes to beat this Bronco team and both teams have been strong finishers this season.

Boise has made a habit of scoring in bunches, and if TCU is able to build an early lead it had better not let off the gas because Boise can take over a game in a matter of minutes with its big-play ability.

TCU-Boise has become quite the modern rivalry and with TCU moving on to the Big 12 and Boise possibly headed to the Big East, it's likely this will be the last chapter of this new rivalry for the foreseeable future.

The Frogs would like nothing more than to finish the series strong and beat the Broncos when most had already written them off. Spoiling Boise's chance at a BCS berth or even a national title game appearance would end the rivalry well and make TCU's season.