NFL Picks Week 10: One Reason a Bet on Each Team Is Risky

Week 10 of the NFL season throws up some mouth-watering fixtures.  The schedule is highlighted by two crunch divisional battles.

AFC West contenders Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers get things started by doing battle on Thursday night.

The main attraction of the week is surely the renewal of the classic NFC South rivalry between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons.

Here are some predictions for the week, including one reason why each team can be considered a risky bet.

1. Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

The Oakland Raiders may have swept this series last season, but both teams are guilty of under performing at crucial times.

Oakland Raiders

Uncertainty at quarterback is the main risk with the Raiders.  The Chargers can rush the passer effectively, and if the Raiders cannot control the superb Antonio Garay, then the rusty Carson Palmer is in for a long night.

San Diego Chargers

It's virtually impossible to ever completely trust the San Diego Chargers.  Despite being a supremely talented squad, the Chargers have made self-destruction an art form. 

Their ability to consistently find new ways to lose always makes them a risky bet.

Prediction: 24-20 to the Chargers

2. Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

This rematch of the 2008/09 NFC Championship game should be a close-fought affair. 

Defensive inconsistency has plagued both teams in the last few seasons.

Arizona Cardinals

Mass defensive underachievement continues to be the Cardinals' biggest problem.  It almost defies belief that a unit containing the likes of Adrian Wilson and the excellent Darnell Dockett could routinely be so porous.

Philadelphia Eagles

Similar to the Cardinals, the Eagles' defensive players need to play up to their star names and reputations on a more regular basis. 

There has been some improvement in recent weeks, and that should be enough to see them past the Cardinals.

Prediction: 28-21 to the Eagles

3. Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Two young, up-and-coming teams desperate to take control of their respective divisions are set for a hard-fought game in Florida.

Houston Texans

Injuries are the only major concern for an impressive Texans team.  Each game could be the week that the loss of players the calibre of Andre Johnson, Mario Williams and Danieal Manning finally takes its toll.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

An inconsistent offense appears to be the biggest weakness for the youthful Buccaneers.  Players such as wideout Mike Williams and running back LeGarrette Blount have so far failed to match their production from a year ago. 

Quarterback Josh Freeman will need all the help he can get against the Texans' ferocious pass-rush.

Prediction: 20-17 to the Texans

4. Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys

The Buffalo Bills were brought crashing back down to earth by the opportunistic New York Jets defense. 

Things may not get any easier for Chan Gailey's team as they take to the road to go up against an aggressive Dallas Cowboys unit.

Buffalo Bills

Lack of explosive playmakers on offense hampers the Bills against attacking defenses.  Gailey designs some nice offensive plays, and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is efficient in his execution.

But if a defense takes away the intermediate routes and controls Fred Jackson, the Bills struggle to find an alternative.

Dallas Cowboys

Poor offensive play-calling continues to be the bane of the Dallas Cowboys. It remains quite a mystery how a unit featuring the likes of Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten manages to break down so often in the red zone.

Prediction: 17-13 to the Cowboys

5. Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers

The current most explosive player in the league, Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, goes up against the previous most explosive player in the league, floundering Titans running back Chris Johnson.

Tennessee Titans

Johnson's continued inability to recapture his best form is crippling the potential of the Titans offense. 

Too many games are being left in the hands of veteran passer Matt Hasselbeck, and without a standout receiver, Hasselbeck can only do so much.

Carolina Panthers

A surprisingly weak defense has held the Panthers back all season.  Even with players like Charles Johnson and James Anderson in the lineup, the Panthers simply can't stop anybody.

Prediction: 27-24 to the Titans

6. Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback inconsistency is the aspect that most clearly defines this game. 

Both Joe Flacco and Tarvaris Jackson can be accused of being streaky passers.

Baltimore Ravens

For some reason, Flacco has yet to truly convince that he is an elite quarterback. 

He misses too many throws and often fails to make the play when it matters most.  Leaving the game in the hands of the superb Ray Rice is always the safest option for the Ravens.

Maybe Flacco's recent heroics against the Steelers prove he has finally turned the corner.  It's still hard to completely trust him, though.

Seattle Seahawks

Inconsistency is an accusation that could be correctly levelled at every unit on the Seahawks team.  But Jackson must bear the brunt, as he has so far failed to generate sufficient offense for the crestfallen NFC West Champions.

Prediction: 24-10 to the Ravens

7. St. Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns

The Rams travel to Ohio to take on a Browns team that is sliding further and further into oblivion.

St. Louis Rams

Trying to do too much on offense undermined a simple formula for success for the young Rams earlier in the season. 

If there has been one silver lining to Sam Bradford's injury, it is the fact that his absence has encouraged the Rams to put the offense in the hands of the NFL's best running back, Steven Jackson.

Sticking to this approach and overruling Josh McDaniels' desire to play run-and-shoot without the necessary personnel is the key for the Rams.

Cleveland Browns

Aside from the disgraceful antics of Peyton Hillis, the biggest concern for the Browns has to be their soft run defense. 

Despite a promising and aggressive young front four, Cleveland's defense continues to be gashed on the ground.

Prediction: 14-13 to the Rams

8. Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

This AFC South basement battle promises to be a dour affair, and the success of Jaguars runner Maurice Jones-Drew will likely determine the outcome.

Jacksonville Jaguars

A steep learning curve at quarterback is the main problem for a stagnant Jaguars offense.

Rookie Blaine Gabbert seems to struggle with basic mechanics and doesn't appear to have the confidence to utilize talented playmakers like Marcedes Lewis. 

Gabbert is in for a tough time if the Jags cannot control Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

Indianapolis Colts

For years, an inability stop the run has been the bane of the Colts defense.  This season, they can't defend the pass, either. 

Teams are routinely shredding a patchwork secondary and taking advantage of the Colts' rigid loyalty to the Tampa-2 coverage scheme.

But if Pat Angerer can lead the charge and at least limit Jones-Drew on the ground, Gabbert may not be able to take full advantage of the secondary.

Prediction: 24-21 to the Colts

9. Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins have shown considerable improvement in recent weeks and will welcome the visit of a Washington Redskins team that appears to be in a freefall at the moment.

Washington Redskins

Quarterback remains the biggest dilemma for the Redskins.  John Beck has been steady, but nothing more.  He has failed to show he can make enough big plays to win a game.

Rex Grossman, on the other hand, shares his big plays between his own offense and the opposition. 

Roy Helu had a productive day against the San Francisco 49ers, but improved play under center is the only way for Washington to stem the tide.

Miami Dolphins

The contributions of Matt Moore and Reggie Bush have finally provided the Dolphins with some offensive firepower.

Lack of a consistent pass-rush has been one of their greatest ills in 2011.  The defense did get to Matt Cassel five times yesterday.  The unit needs a repeat performance against a questionable Redskins offensive line.

Prediction: 13-10 to the Dolphins

10. Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

The Lions and the Bears renew hostilities in a crucial matchup that could have huge implications on the Wild Card prospects of these two NFC North combatants.

Detroit Lions

The health of Matthew Stafford makes the Lions a risky pick in any game.  His durability has been better this season, but Stafford always looks one big hit away from spending several weeks on the sidelines.

That's not good news against a Bears defense sporting the collective talents of Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher.

Chicago Bears

The weak Bears offensive line going up against the relentless Lions front four makes the health of Bears gunslinger Jay Cutler a hot topic in this game.

The Bears must find some way to keep Kyle Vanden Bosch and Ndamukong Suh off Cutler.

Prediction: 17-13 to the Bears

11. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

The young Bengals have enjoyed a fine season so far, but they face a stern test of their postseason credentials against a Steelers team that will still be smarting from their defeat to the Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers 19th-ranked rushing attack is uncharacteristic of an offense often defined by its potency on the ground. 

Rashard Mendenhall and Co. will be in for a tough time against a rugged Bengals defense led by Geno Atkins.

Cincinnati Bengals

Offensive inexperience will inevitably be a concern heading into a matchup against a squad as battle-tested as the Steelers.

Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are sure to face a tough examination of their ability to combine for big plays when under intense pressure.

Prediction: 20-17 to the Steelers

12. Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on a Chiefs team still wounded by their stunning reversal against the previously-winless Dolphins.

Denver Broncos

Despite his heroics in the "Black Hole," dual-purpose threat Tim Tebow remains a big question mark for the Broncos.

Tebow's suspect throwing mechanics are certain to be tested by a smart Chiefs secondary.  If Romeo Crennel can scheme a way to keep Tebow in the pocket, the Broncos could be in trouble.

Kansas City Chiefs

Protecting Matt Cassel is the top priority for the Chiefs. 

Cassel was taken down five times by a Miami defense that had previously struggled to get to the quarterback.

Prediction: 16-13 to the Chiefs

13. New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

The 7-1 49ers entertain a solid New York Giants team that has quietly put together an impressive winning run of its own.

New York Giants

The Giants' 29th-ranked rush offense puts a lot of pressure on quarterback Eli Manning to carry the fight to a smart and opportunistic 49ers defense.

It's hard to envision the New Yorkers improving their 3.3 yards-per-rush average against a San Francisco defense notoriously stingy against the run.

San Francisco 49ers

Although he has improved his accuracy and efficiency this season, Alex Smith has to prove he can make the plays when it counts.

Smith will be in for a tough challenge against an aggressive Giants pass-rush.  If the Giants can shut down the San Francisco rushing attack, they could be primed for a big win.

Prediction: 24-17 to the Giants

14. New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

In a game that could decide the tough NFC South, the Falcons will need to be at their best to subdue a determined and resilient Saints team.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints gamble too much on defense. 

Any defensive coordinator who chooses to adorn himself with the moniker "Doctor Heat" is suspect in the opinion of this author.

Gregg Williams' multiple blitz packages are a risky approach to take against a smart and measured Falcons offense.  If Matt Ryan gets the time, he can pick the Saints apart with the help of Julio Jones and Roddy White.

Atlanta Falcons

Conversely, the Falcons could benefit from some extra practice when it comes to blitzing.

It's hard to think of another team who misses so many free shots on the quarterback.  Aaron Rodgers victimized this failing earlier in the season, and Drew Brees frequently evaded them last year.

John Abraham and his teammates will need to effectively man their rush lanes and get their angles right this time around.

Prediction: 23-20 to the Falcons

15. New England Patriots at New York Jets

Sunday's late kickoff is another chapter in one of the league's most vivid rivalries as the Patriots and jets vie for control of the AFC East.

New England Patriots

The entire defense is a concern for the Patriots.  In this game, the lack of any kind of a pass-rush could hurt them the most.

Despite the presence of Albert Haynesworth and Andre Carter, the Patriots have been unable to scheme ways to consistently apply pressure.

Their inexperienced secondary has suffered through a brutal season as a result.

New York Jets

The lack of a clear offensive identity is seemingly the only thing that can hold the Jets back this season.

Too often, the team seems intent on sticking to a smash-mouth formula.  Being one dimensional against a Bill Belichick-coached team is a recipe for disaster.

The Jets need to show more confidence in quarterback Mark Sanchez and his talented stable of pass catchers.

Prediction: 27-21 to the Jets

16. Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Can anyone defeat the reigning Super Bowl Champions? 

The Vikings ran them close two weeks ago, but rookie Christian Ponder faces a tough task attempting to pull off what would be the upset of the season at Lambeau Field.

Minnesota Vikings

Having a rookie passer in place against a Dom Capers-orchestrated defense immediately puts Minnesota at a distinct disadvantage.

When that same rookie is going to have to try to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers, his job becomes even harder.

Ponder has looked solid in his first few starts, but he'll need an awful lot to go his way on Monday night.

Green Bay Packers

A shaky pass defense has been the only chink in the armor for the Packers.  Green Bay currently rank 31st in the league when it comes to repelling an aerial onslaught.

But do the Vikings have enough weapons to trouble them?

Prediction: 31-14 to the Packers