Iowa Football: Bowl Projections for the Hawkeyes

On Saturday, Nov. 5, the Iowa Hawkeyes accomplished an historical first. They beat the Michigan Wolverines three times in a row.

But even more than that, the Hawks, with red, white and blue tigerhawks emblazoned on their helmets, won one for America.

With the win, a big sigh of relief escaped Iowa City. This was because after last week's embarrassing loss to Minnesota, there seemed to be a very real possibility that the Hawkeyes would go 0-5 to end the season, which would leave them at home for the holidays.

This, Iowa's sixth win, secured them bowl eligibility, though it is important to note it did not guarantee them a bowl bid. 

With that said, there are a few important items to note before projecting where the Hawks might end up this bowl season.

First of all, the Big Ten is currently unlikely to secure two BCS bowl bids. All of the seven-plus-win teams—Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nebraska and Michigan—have a shot if they win out, but most of them play each other to end the season and will knock each other off. In effect, I'm moving forward assuming the Big Ten will only send one team to the BCS.

Secondly, my opinion is that the Big Ten will have 10 bowl-eligible teams, but two of them will be 6-6 and left out of Big Ten bowls, hoping an at-large spot opens up.

It is unlikely this will apply to Iowa, as the Hawks are an attractive football program, but one never knows.

Rose Bowl

Date: Jan. 2, 2012

Location: Pasadena, Calif.

Opponent: Pac-12 champion or BCS at-large

I would go so far as to say the chances of the Hawkeyes winning out are about 150-to-1.

However, if they do win out in the regular season and win the conference championship, they would go to the Rose Bowl. In short, the Hawks are in the driver's seat in the Big Ten Western Division.

Moreover, they would still have a shot at the Rose Bowl if they beat Michigan State and Nebraska, but lose to Purdue. If they won those games, MSU, Michigan and Nebraska would all have to lose at least one more game between now and the end of the season (along with the Iowa loss).

That would leave the Hawks at 8-4 and 5-3 in conference. In that scenario, all four teams would be 5-3 in conference and Iowa would win the tie breaker by virtue of head-to-head wins.

Needless to say, that is a very long shot, almost to the point of impossibility.

Odds of Iowa getting a Rose Bowl bid: 135-to-1

At-Large BCS Bowl

There is zero chance the Hawks will get an at-large bid to a BCS bowl, given that 9-4 is the best record they could have with a conference championship loss.

Capital One Bowl

Date: Jan. 2, 2012

Location: Orlando

Opponent: SEC

If the Hawks beat Purdue and either Michigan State or Nebraska (but not both), they theoretically have a shot at Orlando. Still, it is an unlikely shot, as it appears that no matter how things shake out, Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin will have about the same or a better record than Iowa.

Iowa could get picked over UW with the same record, but not over OSU and definitely not over PSU in what is beginning to look more and more like Joe Paterno's last season.

Furthermore, the Cap One Bowl is the only bowl game that is a stickler for taking the available Big Ten team with the best in-conference ranking.

The only realistic way Iowa could make the Cap One is if it wins out but loses the conference championship. Meanwhile, the Eastern Division teams that don't make the conference championship in this scenario would need to finish with fewer than nine wins.

In a strange way, getting to the Cap One is only minimally more probable than getting to the Rose. The Hawks are in complete control of their Rose Bowl hopes. Win out and they are there.

However, one more loss in the regular season, and getting to the Cap One is virtually impossible. Also, even if they win out and lose in the conference championship, they would still have to depend on other Big Ten teams' final records.

Odds of Iowa getting a Capital One Bowl bid: 100-to-1

Outback Bowl

Date: Jan. 2, 2012

Location: Tampa, Fla.

Opponent: SEC

This is where the Hawkeyes have a very real shot. Nonetheless, in order to get an Outback Bowl bid, they have to win at least two of the last three.

As I previously mentioned, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State are the key teams in the mix. The only program that Iowa could conceivably get picked over is Wisconsin, as the two teams are about a wash in terms of traveling and national appeal.

There is no program in the Western Division that would consistently get picked over Iowa, except for Nebraska (Michigan is notorious for poor showings to lesser-tier bowl games). Furthermore, the only Big Ten bowl game that stays true to the conference rankings is the Cap One. Thus, the Outback has some freedom of choice and it would use it.

Basically, if Iowa wins two of the last three, and Ohio State only wins seven games this season, the Hawks would have a good shot at the Outback.

In short, the Hawkeyes have a 50/50 shot of getting to the Outback if they win two of their last three. The Outback would be the worst bid they would get if they win out but lose in the conference championship. Lose more than one game for the remainder of the year and they won't be going to Tampa.

Odds of Iowa getting an Outback Bowl bid: 10-to-1

Insight Bowl

Date: Dec. 30, 2011.

Location: Tempe, Ariz.

Opponent: Big 12

If the Hawks win two more, the Insight would be probable with the Outback a possibility and a Cap One bid heavily dependent upon teams in the Eastern Division.

If they only win one more, the Insight would be a substantial stretch. Win none and they will have no chance.

Finally, Iowa's 2010 Insight Bowl appearance would not be a determining factor in a potential repeat bowl bid. Quite the contrary, the Insight Bowl, and more specifically Tempe, did very well (financially) last year and would be happy to host the Hawks again.

If the bowl officials were faced with the opportunity of choosing both Iowa and Missouri again, they would likely take the Hawks and the next available Big 12 candidate.

The reason for that is because the Hawkeyes are America's team (i.e. they have more money to spend).

Odds of Iowa getting an Insight Bowl bid: 6-to-1

Gator Bowl

Date: Jan. 2, 2012

Location: Jacksonville, Fla.

Opponent: SEC

If the Hawks win one more, they would have a reasonable chance of getting to the Gator. If they don't win another game for the rest of the regular season, they would still have a shot, but it would be a very long shot.

Win two more and the Gator is as low as they would sink.

Odds of Iowa getting a Gator Bowl bid: 4-to-1

Meineke Car Care of Texas

Date: Dec. 31, 2011

Location: Houston

Opponent: Big 12

If the Hawks win one more game, they have a good shot at going to Houston.

If they lose the rest of their games, this is the best they will likely do, and in order to get to Houston, they would depend on a complete collapse from a Leaders Division team or two.

Odds of Iowa getting a Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas bid: 3-to-1

TicketCity Bowl

Date: Jan. 2, 2012

Location: Dallas

Opponent: Conference USA

If the Hawks win one more, this is as low as they will drop. If they lose out, they might be depending upon multiple Big Ten teams in order to get a bowl bid.

Odds of Iowa getting a TicketCity Bowl Bid: 3-to-1

Little Caesar's Bowl

Date: Dec. 27, 2011

Location: Detroit

Opponent: MAC

Iowa will not be spending the bowl season in Detroit, as that would be un-American.

The Hawkeyes are too attractive a bowl team. More specifically, they bring too much money into bowl towns. Detroit needs money, but the Texas bowls wouldn't let Iowans and all their expendable money slip past.

A six-win Iowa would get picked over a seven-win MSU or even a seven-win Michigan and certainly over a seven-win Northwestern, Purdue or Illinois.

Of course, if the Big Ten has 10 available teams, and bowls have to take the seven-win teams first, then the six-win Hawks would get left in the cold.

Due to this, Iowa is more likely to go bowl-less with six wins than it is to go to the Little Caesar's Bowl.

Odds of Iowa getting a Little Caesars Bowl bid: 1,000-to-1

The Long and the Short of It

I only considered realistic scenarios in this slide. I didn't take into account some of the extreme long shots I mentioned in previous slides.

Win out and win the conference championship: Rose Bowl

Win out and lose the conference championship: Cap One or Outback Bowl

Win two more: Outback, Insight or Gator Bowl

Win one more: Texas or TicketCity Bowl

Lose out: TicketCity Bowl, at-large bowl or no bowl

I think the Hawks will finish 1-2 for a final record of 7-5. This will land them in the TicketCity Bowl, where my guess is they take on Tulsa or SMU.