LSU-Alabama: 5 Interesting Trends That Point to a Crimson Tide Victory

People have been talking about this one big game that's supposed to happen on Saturday. 

There have been prediction threads, nationally televised pregame shows, betting statistics, hundreds of hype videos, posters and everything in between. 

Needless to say, I think everyone has been partaking in the pregame predictions. I'm sure you've seen many, many articles about why both Alabama and LSU will win on Saturday at Bryant Denny. 

The goal here isn't to analyze Richardson's yards per carry. It isn't to predict the first round of the NFL Draft or to showcase the talent of both LSU's and Alabama's defenses. 

It's to show five simple, interesting and relatively undermentioned trends that point towards an Alabama victory. 

Nick Saban's Rematch Record

Short Version

Saban doesn't lose rematch games.

Long Version

Nick Saban won 12 straight rematch games after losing a season before. He hasn't lost a rematch game in 10 years. He boasts a 13-1 overall record as a head SEC coach in these types of football games. 

Even though this game is a battle of No. 1 vs. No. 2—a first in SEC history—this category cannot be ignored or shoved under the table. 

Advantage goes to Nick Saban over Les Miles. 

LSU's Long Play Statistics

Short Version

LSU will need long plays against 'Bama's defense. It hasn't gotten them this season. Alabama will need long plays against LSU's defense. It has gotten them. Often.

Long Version

As good as LSU's defense is, their success on Saturday night depends on the offense. It will undoubtedly be the loudest and most intense experience the LSU offense has faced this season, with 101,821 fans screaming down their throats.

Needless to say, LSU is going to need a big play if they are to survive. They're going to need that one 60- or 70-yard play that breaks this Alabama defense. The problem is, the LSU offense just doesn't produce that. 

Their longest play is respectable, but not spectacular. A 57-yard catch by their star receiver Rueben Randle holds the title. 

That said, LSU is going to need a bigger play than that to really demoralize the pumped-up Alabama defense. LSU's longest running play is only 44 yards...by their punter.

LSU's top three running backs boast 23, 26, and 20 yards as their longest plays this season. 

That just won't be good enough against a team that forces a three-and-out 45 percent of the time each time the opposing team starts their first play on the first down. 

On the flip side, Alabama has had much more success on long plays this season.

They boast three running backs and two receivers (hint: one receiver is also a running back) that have longer plays than 57 yards. 

Alabama's top three running backs have an for longs of 76, 67 and 69 yards coming into Saturday's match-up.

Maze and Richardson have both amassed long receiving plays at 69 and 61 yards, respectively. Eddie Lacy even has a 48-yard receiving play to his name.

Alabama at Home, Especially in the Saban Era

Short Version

Bryant-Denny is hard to play in and teams don't win there often.

Long Version

Since the start of the 2008 season, the Crimson Tide boasts just one loss at Bryant-Denny Stadium. That's a record of 25-1.

The one loss was of course the miraculous comeback by the eventual National Championship-winning Auburn Tigers in last year's Iron Bowl. 

The all-time statistics for this historic stadium is absolutely scary. At Bryant-Denny, the Crimson Tide have 218 wins, 46 losses, and 3 ties. Doing the math, 218 wins out of 267 games, adds up to a significant 81.6 percent winning percentage.

LSU vs. Mississippi State

Short Version

LSU has played one legitimate defense on the road. They didn't do well. Advantage goes to Alabama. 

Long Version

I'm not trying to say that LSU didn't win and win well against Mississippi State.  A 19-6 victory on the road is certainly something every coach wants. 

That said, LSU did not play very good football that day. Let me reiterate, their offense didn't play that well. Their defense was, of course, excellent.

But as I've said before, this game will be all about how well the LSU offense will compete on the road against the Alabama defense. 

What better way to simulate that than to pick LSU's toughest defensive challenge they've faced on the road: Mississippi State.

Mississippi State ranks 18th in points against and 31st in total offensive yards allowed per game, obviously this is a far cry from the Alabama defense.

LSU threw its only interception of the season in this game. They completed just 33 percent of their third downs and gave up 83 yards on nine penalties. 

LSU's rushing game was abysmal at 3.9 yards per carry. Worst of all, they only put up 19 points, 10 of which came in the fourth quarter against a team with an overall record of 4-4.

Don't get me wrong, I think LSU outplayed Mississippi State on both sides of the ball. Their offense was just not there against an actual defense on the road, something that has to change if they want to win on Saturday. 

Alabama's Scary Second Half Statistics

Short Version

Alabama shuts you down after halftime.

Long Version

I'm sure everyone who is reading this article has heard the following statistics. Alabama has given up only 55 points this whole season.

Alabama is the only team to have given up less than double-digit touchdowns in the FBS, with six.  Alabama only gives up 44 rushing yards per game.

Here's something you may not have heard.

Alabama has given up seven points, one touchdown, in the second half of the past six games. Overall, they've only given up 22 total points in the third or fourth quarter this season.

Even if Alabama comes out slow and gives up a big play, their defense adapts, reacts and doesn't make the same mistake again so far this season. 

In a game where it may be important for Alabama to comeback from a deficit or to shut down LSU from storming up the field in the second half, Alabama has the edge.