Are the Buffalo Sabres Playoff Material?

The 2008-2009 NHL season is one-third of the way done. The question no longer is whether the Sabres are one of the leagues elite teams, as they appeared they might be during the first 10 games of the season. 

Rather, the question is whether the Sabres can somehow squeak into the playoffs at the seventh or eighth spot.

The Sabres added no free agents of note since last year except Craig Rivet, and with all due respect to the captain, he is just a piece of the puzzle, not a real difference maker. 

The only way the Sabres were going to be significantly better than last year would be if their young guns, Paille, Sekera, and Stafford (to name the most prominent), continued to improve, and if their first line players, Vanek, Pominville, and Roy turned in performances as good as or better than the year before.

With the stunning exception of Mr. Vanek, not one of these players have stepped up.   Paille, is on pace to score nine goals, while last year scoring 19. 

Sekera was never expected to be the next Brian Campbell, yet he shows a disturbing tendency to give the puck away in the defensive zone and make ill-advised moves at the offensive blue line, which have led to odd man rushes against. 

Stafford is the most troubling. He is a talented player who appears disinterested.  He has missed at least three wide open nets, and his play has not elevated to the next level.

However, it is unfair to merely blame the youngsters.  Roy is on pace for 24 goals.  Last year he netted 32.  Combine this with his apparent inability to stay on his feet and growing reputation as a diver, and it is clear this player is not a legitimate first line center. 

Pominville is on the same goal scoring pace, but is not an impact player, neither shutting down the opposition nor scoring the clutch goal when needed. 

The one bright spot is Vanek, who has taken the slings and arrows thrown at him during his sophomore year and grown into a super star.  The man has the gift when it comes to scoring.

While he may tend to hang a bit in the offensive zone, he’s one of the Sabres' hardest working players and the one offensive talent the Sabres have, who can be counted on to score.  If only he had a stronger supporting cast.

Frankly, the Sabres are not that good.  Their mid-level players – Kotalik, Mair,  Hecht, Gaustadt, and Afinegenov are unremarkable with the exception of Afinegenov who is remarkable only for having amazing skating skills, yet is not more productive. 

Kotalik may be 235 pounds of muscle, but plays like he is afraid of breaking a sweat.  Mair and Gaustadt are tough, but don’t have the skills to complement their work ethic.

This is a soft team.  Not tough, or big, or mean, or willing enough to scare anyone. Plus they are not talented enough to get by on skill.  Their only chance to make the playoffs is if they work their butts off every game, but for whatever reason, this team takes, not only periods off, but entire games.

Their defense is old and slow.  Their top four defensemen are over 30—Numminen is 40, Spacek, 34,  Lydman, 32 and Tallinder, about to be 30.  When the other team begins cycling the puck, the Sabres don’t have the dominant defenseman who can put the body on someone and take the puck away. 

Opposing forwards cruise in front of the Sabre net with no fear.  How many goals against have we seen when the Sabres get rattled in their own zone, and try to shoot the puck out of the zone blindly, only to have the puck intercepted and fired behind Miller.

Their goaltending is good, and sometimes great, but at times, occasionally not so great.  Miller is a good goalie, but doesn’t seem to have the ability to carry the team on his back like Hasek once did or Lundquist does for the Rangers. 

Offensively, the Sabres are poor finishers.  They don’t seem to know where the other players on their line are going to be.  They pass when they should shoot, and shoot when they should pass.

So will the Sabres make the playoffs?  This writer’s prediction is no.  The Bruins will win the division.  The Rangers, Washington, Montreal, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh will also gain more points than Buffalo.  That leaves the Sabres fighting it out with New Jersey, Carolina, Florida, Ottawa, and Toronto for the last spot.  And the problem is, this team doesn’t seem to have any fight in it.