My Final College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings

As my regular readers know, I have developed a unique strength of schedule ranking.  It is point based and primarily quantitative, but does have subjective elements.  

It assigns points and deducts points based on the quality of each team's wins and losses.

The basics of the point system is as follows:

Points are earned for beating-ranked teams (AP 25).  The higher the rank, the more points.

Points are deducted for losing to ranked teams.  The lower the rank, the more points deducted.

A single "MOV" point is added or subtracted in case of a large margin of victory or a narrow margin of victory.

No points, either regular or MOV, are given for beating an unranked team.  National Champions are supposed to beat unranked teams.  However, points are deducted for losing to unranked teams.  You will also lose a MOV point for a narrow victory over an unranked team.

At the end of the season, some points are adjusted to reflect a drastic change in end of season ranking of an opponent. These are called EOSA points, for end of season adjustment.

Complete details along with examples can be found here:  

Here are the final point totals for the 2008 season:

Florida--------- 15
Oklahoma------ 12
Texas---------- 9.5
Alabama--------  8
Texas Tech----- 7
Penn St--------- 4
Ole Miss---------3
Socal----------- 3
Utah------------ 3
Boise St-------- 1
Ohio State------ 0
TCU------------  0
Okla State----- -2
Cincinnati----- -2
Georgia ------- -4

Before I go on, let me make it clear what this is and what this is not.

It is not an independent assessment of which team is good and which team is bad.

It is primarily based on the polls, because points are awarded and deducted based on the rankings.

It provides a net quantitative measurement of the quality of each team's wins and losses against credible opponents.

It is a double check on the viability of the final rankings and can be a good tie breaker in the case of a close call in the rankings at the end of the year.

OK, hopefully that answers some questions in advance.  As you can see, the results broadly conform with the final BCS rankings.  It certainly places the same two teams in the NC game.  Here are the notable variances:

- Florida is a clear number one instead of Oklahoma.  If there weren't a two-team BCS playoff and these were the final rankings, Florida would be number one instead of Oklahoma and would thus be National Champion.

- Ole Miss is the most underrated team in the country.  The AP poll got this more right than the BCS poll, ranking the Rebels 20th instead of 25th.  Las Vegas Sports Consultants had them 17th.  I have them seventh.

- I've got USC down a few slots from the consensus.  Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which only cares about odds, has the Trojans at third.  I have them all the way down at eighth.  Remember, I'm not looking ahead, I'm only judging what happened on the field already. 

This isn't a knock on USC, it just reflects that they are the best team in the country that is also the most untested.  In other words, they didn't have the opportunity (through no fault of their own) to play as many ranked teams as the other top teams.

- My results certainly point out the error of arguments from some Texas fans that they deserve a higher ranking than Florida because the quality of their single loss was higher. ie they lost to the No. 1 BCS team in the country, Oklahoma, while Florida lost to unranked Mississippi.

With this system, you can see the quantitative impact of the quality of Florida's wins over the quality of the Longhorn's wins. 

This is one of the reasons I like these point totals.  It's nice to have something quantitative, because at the end of every season, disgruntled fans of the "left out" teams always throw the entire polling system into question as "mere opinion."

(Of course, you never hear a word from the same fans the next year when their team comes out on top using the same system.)

Below are the point totals for every team.  This got a little tedious, to tell you the truth.  There may be some errors.  If anyone notices an error in their team's results, please tell me and I will fix it.

Details Of How Points Were Awarded

Florida  
L Ole Miss  (unr) home -6 (+1 MOV) (+ 2 EOSA)
W LSU (5) home +4 (+1 MOV) (-2 EOSA) 
W Georgia (8) neut +4.5 (+1 MOV) 
W South Carolina (24) home  +1 (+1 MOV)
W Florida State (23) road  +2 (+1 MOV)
W Alabama (1) neut  +4.5

Oklahoma 

W Cincinnati (unr) home (+1 MOV) (+1 EOSA)
W TCU (24) home +1 (+1 MOV)
L Texas (5) neut -4.5
W Kansas (16) home +2 (-1 EOSA)
W Texas Tech (2) home  +3 (+1 MOV)
W Okla State (12) road +4 (+1 MOV)
W Missouri  (19) neut  +1.5 (+1 MOV)

Texas
W Oklahoma (1) neut +4.5
W Missouri (11) home +2 (+1 MOV)
W Oklahoma State (7)  home +3 (-1 MOV)
L Texas Tech (6) road -3 (+1 MOV)
W Kansas   (unr) road  (+1 MOV)  (+1 EOSA)

Alabama
W Clemson (9) neut site +3 (+ 1 MOV)  (-1.5 EOSA)
W Georgia (3) road  +6 (+1 MOV)
W Kentucky (unr) home (-1 MOV)
W Ole Miss (unr) home (-1 MOV)  (+1 EOSA)
W LSU (15) road  +4 (-1 MOV)   (-2 EOSA)
L Florida (4) neut  -1.5 

Texas Tech  
W Kansas (19) road  +2 (plus 1 MOV)
W Texas (1) home  +3 (minus 1 MOV point)
W Okla State (8) home +3 (plus 1 MOV)
L Oklahoma  (5) road  -1  (- 1 MOV)

Penn State 
W Illinois (22) home  +1 
W Ohio State (10) road  +4 (-1 MOV)
L  Iowa (unr) road  -3 (+1 MOV)
W Michigan State (17) home +1 (+1 MOV)

Ole Miss

L Wake Forest (20) road  -3 (+1 MOV) (-3 EOSA)
W Florida (4) road  +6 (-1 MOV)
L Alabama (2) road -1 (+1 MOV)
W LSU (18) road +2 (+1 MOV)

USC
W OSU (4) home +3 (+1 MOV)
L Oreg St. (unr) road -3 
W Oregon (23) home +1
W Cal (21) home +1

Utah

W TCU (11) home  +2 (-1 MOV)
W BYU (17) home +1 (+1 MOV)

Boise State

W Oregon (17) road  +2 (-1 MOV)

Ohio State
L USC (1) road -1 (-1 MOV)
W Wisconsin (18) road +2 (-2 EOSA)
W Michigan State (20) road +2 (+1 MOV)
L Penn State (3) home  -2 (+1 MOV)

TCU

L Oklahoma (2) road  -1 (-1 MOV)
W BYU (9) home  +2 (+1 MOV)
L Utah (10) road  -2 (+1 MOV)

Oklahoma State  
W Missouri (3) road +6 (-1 MOV)  (-2 EOSA)
L Texas (1) road  -1 (plus 1 MOV)
L TTech (2) road -1 (- 1 MOV)
L Oklahoma (3) home -2 (-1 MOV)

Cincinnati

L Oklahoma (4) road -1 (-1 MOV)
W Akron unr  (-1 MOV)
W Rutgers unr (-1 MOV)
W S. Fla (24) home  +1
W  W. Va (20) road  +2 (-1 MOV)
W Pitt  (20)  home +1 (-1 MOV)

Georgia
L Alabama (9) home  -3 (-1 style)
W Vanderbilt (22) home +1 (-1 EOSA)
W at LSU (11) road +4 (+1 MOV) (-2 EOSA)
L GTech (18) home -4 (+1 MOV