BYU Football: Breaking Down BYU to the Big East

BYU has clearly stated from the beginning that conference affiliation, and football strategy overall, is driven by a desire for exposure for the school, which leads to exposure for the LDS Church which owns it.

The History

In order to understand how BYU might fit into a conference now that the Big-12 has settled, you have to understand some history.

After being mired in a conference saddled with a dreadful television contract that puts all MWC games in places nobody outside the team’s immediate fans can see, BYU sought ways to play in front of more eyes.

Also, it wanted third-tier and rebroadcast distribution rights, in order to show games or replays on its BYU TV network, which is a best-of-breed facility dual-used by the school’s journalism department. The school was promised these things verbally by MWC TV partner and Conference Commissioner Craig Thompson. Like most things these two “partners” promised, it was a lie.

Not to mention the fact BYU brought all the value to the conference in terms of television and bowl value, and was forced to split what little revenue the conference generated with its little MWC brethren.

All of this might have been bearable if the MWC had an automatic berth to participate in College Football’s evil cartel: The BCS. But alas, it didn’t, thus independence was a much better option for the Cougars.

The Big Least

Now that the Big-12 passed on BYU in its initial rounds of expansion, momentum is building among fans to join the Big East.

The reasons seem simple enough at first: An automatic BCS bid, a conference to win, easier scheduling, etc. But there’s more there than meets the eye.

There are more than a dozen reasons joining the Big East would be a foolhardy move for the Cougars. Let’s look at a few.

BCS Access

Fans want to get to a major bowl. Last year, we were forced to watch a downright mediocre UCONN team play in a BCS game by winning the Big East. Path of least resistance, right?

But keep in mind, the BCS contract is up for revision and renewal after the 2013 season.

The BCS was created by the big conferences as a way to generate lots of money and keep those dollars out of the hands of the NCAA, which would share with the Non-AQ schools. After Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College left the Big East, many SEC, Big-10, Big-12, ACC and Pac-10 conference schools felt like the Big East no longer deserved the automatic bid.

Now, three more schools have left, including the top two football schools, leaving the Big East with schools with small fan-bases, little tradition and lesser facilities.

If you think for a second the BCS contract will continue to include the Big East as an automatic participant when revised and revisited, you’re crazy.

This time around there’s much more money on the line, and the aforementioned five conferences have absolutely zero reason to share that with a watered-down Big East.

In fact, you can argue that BYU is as, or more, likely to gain access to the BCS as an independent than with the Big East. It’s likely that in the future, the Big East will have the same arrangement non-AQs have now: Finish in the top-10 in standings and you’re in. It’s possible BYU gets that same deal as an Indy.

Pulling a TCU

It’s well known in college football circles that the SEC, Pac-12, ACC, and Big 10 aren’t happy that the Big-12 doesn’t have a championship game.

In fact, prior to the Big-10 and Pac-12 expanding, the Big-12, SEC and ACC were big proponents of requiring all BCS AQ conferences of holding a title game. The SEC would blow a gasket if a one-loss SEC champ, who lost its conference title game, is left out of the championship while a Big-12 team who didn’t play a conference title game gets in.

The point is, it’s very, very likely that, in the new postseason, all qualifying conferences will have to hold a title game, and thus have twelve teams.

So, could BYU finally get an invite to the Big-12? Maybe. But if you join the Big East, you’re stuck with a huge buyout in order to bolt.

Worse, assume the Big-12 doesn’t take BYU. Instead, it would take two more Big East teams, and leve BYU stuck in a conference with no automatic qualification that has to pick up more teams from the MAC.

Will the BCS survive?

Many talk about the BCS contract renewal in 2013 as a foregone conclusion. But don’t be so sure.

The BCS is currently facing lawsuits in multiple state and federal courts for corruption and illegalities. Conferences and schools have realized that this cartel is taking billions of dollars that could/should go back to the schools. There is groundswell across America that the system is broken and something needs to be done to fix it.

Mark Cuban has stated clearly that he is prepared to offer a competing platform for the college football postseason which would offer more money to schools than the BCS.

Maybe a new system is a 50/50 proposition at best, but building a conference and football program based strictly on BCS access is like building your football franchise around Donovan McNabb.

ESPN = Exposure

BYU watched very closely what happened to Boise State in the past five years. The Darlings of the Gem State became national darlings by playing (and winning) games against lesser opponents on ESPN.

BYU is the new Boise State. Winning has to come, and it will, just as it did for the Broncos.

But will that same exposure on ESPN come with Big East membership? No. Granted, it won’t come in any conference alignment, but giving up those games to be in the Big-12 is a much different story than giving them up to be in a teetering Big East.

Bowl Games

There’s no doubt that BYU's bowl situation sucks. But it also sucked in the Mountain West, so would it be any better in the Big East?

Currently the Big East bowl that’s furthest west is the Liberty Bowl. That was fun, wasn’t it? An awful city, awful stadium and an awful opponent.

Sure, the conference would work out new agreements, but you’re naïve if you think they’ll end up with anything better than the Armed Forces Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl or Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. Sound familiar?

Long-shots at a post-2013 BCS bowl aside, the bowl situation wouldn’t be any better in the Big East. Maybe fans just want to be surprised instead of knowing their postseason venue at the start of the year.

The Bowl Bull

Despite popular thinking, even BCS bowl games are usually a losing proposition.

The Big East split $17.7 million in BCS money last season. That’s a little over $2 million per team in an eight team league. The trip to the Fiesta Bowl in 2010 cost UCONN over $4.3 million. They lost $1.8 million by making the trip to the “Big Money” game.

In a twelve-team Big East, which by some miracle retains its BCS status after 2013,  BYU would share about $1.5 million per year from the BCS. Notre Dame, as an independent with a BCS tie-in, got $1.3 in 2010.

So, bowl games are basically an expense, even with a BCS game. All it offers is prestige, if you can earn it.

Sharing the TV wealth

Now we’re back to an old MWC argument. Look at the books and it’s clear, the only way schools make money are ticket sales, sponsorships and TV revenues. Should BYU be a good socialist and share the money gained from the TV value it delivers?

Let’s assume a new Big East forms with BYU, Boise State, SMU, Houston, Air Force, Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, UCONN and Rutgers, and maybe Central Florida and another filler-team.

In that organization, BYU has the largest fan base, best facilities, largest stadium, richest tradition and brings the most value in terms of TV contract and bowl tie-ins.

Do the Cougars really want to share that with UCONN? Do they want to subsidize lacrosse at SMU?

Right now, it’s very conservatively estimated that BYU will earn about $10 million on average from games on ESPN and BYU TV.

To match that in the Big East, the conference would need to generate a total of $120,000,000 annually. That was the high-end that ESPN offered the group a few months ago, when it still had West Virginia, Syracuse and Pitt and was a basketball power.

It’s unlikely they’ll sniff that number again.

What’s the Schedule

The one thing a conference affiliation would bring is easier and more meaningful scheduling.

In the configuration mentioned above, there are no powerhouse schools. But there also aren’t any slouches. There may not be a Florida, but there’s also no Wyoming or New Mexico.

So, BYU would definitely play a consistent schedule against decent competition.

But can the same quality come through an independent schedule? Maybe.

Final Analysis

I have no doubt that if somehow the BCS survives and is renewed for 2013, the other five conferences will not include the Big East.

I also have no doubt that the Big-12 will expand to twelve teams before that renewal date. If BYU joins the Big East, they are probably no longer a candidate for that expansion.

So the decision comes down to this: Are two seasons of BCS access and scheduling worth the risk of the whole thing being blown up after 2013?

Are you willing to build your franchise and financial future around Donovan McNabb?

Follow Ryan at http://twitter.com/sportsguyutah