Big Ten Football: Making Sense of the Big Ten Championship Race

There is only one thing we know about the Big Ten for sure this year.  The conference is a mess.  

There are realistically seven teams fighting for two spots in the first ever Big Ten championship game. Among those teams are the ones we expected (Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State) and a few we didn't (Penn State, Michigan) — not to mention the wild cards (Ohio State and Iowa).

How does it all play out over the next month?  Who has the best chance?  Who needs a series of miracles to even sniff Indianapolis?

Let's get answers.

The Front-Runners

Nebraska 3-1 (Legends's Division)

Remaining Opponents: vs. Northwestern, at Penn State, at Michigan, Iowa

Control Thy Destiny: Yes

Key Game: Michigan - Nebraska still needs to win out, but a loss against Penn State is survivable because the two teams aren't competing for a division title.  Northwestern and to a lesser extent Iowa, are both far enough out of the race that the head-to-head tiebreaker most likely isn't in play.  

That leaves Michigan.  If Michigan gets the win over Nebraska it causes two problems: Michigan owns the head-to-head tiebreaker in a close division race and puts Nebraska in the same boat as the Wolverines — waiting for a Michigan State loss that might not happen.

Chances: Medium - Nebraska has already seen its toughest conference tests and faces two good but flawed teams on the road.  Nebraska is good enough to win out and that is all the Huskers need to do to secure a place in the Big Ten Championship game.

Penn State 5-0 (Leader's Division)

Remaining Opponents: vs. Nebraska, at Ohio State, at Wisconsin

Control Thy Destiny: Yes

Key Game:  Ohio State - Unlike Nebraska, Penn State's undefeated mark in the conference and the next two challengers' two-loss conference record means the Nittany Lions can afford to drop a game and still stay in front of the pack.  

A loss to cross divisional Nebraska just hurts pride, and a loss to Wisconsin could complicate matters. However, losing to Ohio State is the most dangerous for Penn State's title chances.  Both Ohio State's losses came to Legend's division teams, and if three teams are tied atop the Leader's division with two losses, Ohio State would get the title game bid by virtue of not having lost to a Leader's division opponent.

Chances: Medium to High - Penn State has to win two out of three games, and with the way the defense is playing Penn State should be able to play all three close.

The Lurkers

Michigan State 3-1 (Legend's Division)

Remaining Opponents: vs. Minnesota, at Iowa, vs. Indiana, at Northwestern

Control Thy Destiny: No

Rooting Against: Nebraska - If the Huskers lose one game and MSU wins out, the Spartans go to Indy.

Key Game: Iowa - Because Iowa is the only team that might have a chance in hell against Michigan State.  Seriously.  Thanks to a front loaded conference schedule, Michigan State did all of its heavy lifting in October.  However, Iowa — despite a recent loss to Minnesota — is a historically troublesome game for the Spartans.  Michigan State got its first and only regular season loss in Iowa City last year and these two teams routinely play each other close.

Chances: Medium to High - The race between Nebraska and Michigan State pretty much comes down to who wins out.  Both play Iowa, but Nebraska has trips to Ann Arbor and Happy Valley as potential stumbling blocks.  Nebraska gets the nod as front-runner now (because controlling your own destiny is a huge advantage), but odds are good things fall in Michigan State's favor.

Ohio State 2-2 (Leader's Division)

Remaining Opponents: vs. Indiana, at Purdue, vs. Penn State, at Michigan

Control Thy Destiny: No

Rooting Against: Penn State - Penn State has to lose one of its two games not against the Buckeyes or Ohio State won't have a chance to tie.

Key Game: Penn State - Obvious.  Penn State leads the Leader's division and even if Penn State loses its other two games, the Nittany Lions can eliminate Ohio State from the conference title race with a win in Columbus.

Chances: Medium - Ohio State has two things going for it.  One, Penn State has to visit Columbus, a place that hasn't been kind to the Nittany Lions in the past.  Two, Penn State has to play two of the Big Ten's best teams besides the Buckeyes, and will have a hard time splitting those games.

Iowa 2-2 (Legend's Division)

Remaining Opponents: vs. Michigan, vs. Michigan State, at Purdue, at Nebraska

Control Thy Destiny: Yes

Key Game: Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska - Yes, Iowa controls its own destiny if it wins out.  No, Iowa isn't a front-runner because Iowa can't afford one more loss after suffering an upset at the hands of Minnesota.  Iowa has to beat the three one-loss teams in the Legend's division to force a four-way tie, of which Iowa would then control all three tiebreakers.  Iowa has the hardest road to Indy, but by far the most direct.  Win and get in.

Need Some Help

Michigan 3-1 (Legend's Division)

Remaining Opponents: at Iowa, at Illinois, vs. Nebraska, vs. Ohio State

Control Thy Destiny: No

Rooting Against: Michigan State - The Spartans currently hold the tiebreaker, and another loss means the Legend's division representative is most likely the winner of the Michigan vs. Nebraska game the second to last week of the season, assuming both teams win out.

Key Game: Nebraska - Obviously, as both are one-loss teams locked in a division race with each other and a win over Nebraska gets Michigan the tiebreaker in the event of a Michigan State loss.

Chances: Low - Michigan State has an easy run to end the season, and should be able to win out and twist the knife one more time in the form of the tiebreaker from the Spartans' win in East Lansing over Michigan.

Wisconsin 2-2 (Leader's Division)

Remaining Opponents: vs. Purdue, at Minnesota, at Illinois, vs. Penn State

Control Thy Destiny: No

Rooting Against: Ohio State and Penn State - Like the Buckeyes, Wisconsin needs Penn State to drop one of its games against a team not named Wisconsin.  However, Wisconsin also needs Ohio State to pick up one more loss.

Key Game: Penn State - If you are sensing a trend, yes, the team at the top of the heap has a target on its back.  This is no different for Penn State, which has to face two division challengers.  If Wisconsin wants any chance at the title game, it has to beat Penn State and hope for the best.