Projecting the Field of 65: December 10

Some top teams have faltered since I revealed my first projections on Dec. 4.  UConn struggled to win at Buffalo, Duke lost to Michigan and Notre Dame fell to Ohio State.  How will all this affect the early bracket picture?  Let's find out.

As always, I like to break teams down into three categories.  "Wallflowers" are bubble teams.  Everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor.  Elite teams safely in the field are "Dancing with a hottie" and in the middle are the schools which are "Dancing with a butterface."


ACC
Dancing with a hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (2), Wake Forest (3)
Dancing with a butterface: Maryland (7), Clemson (8), Florida St (8), Miami (9)
Wallflowers: Boston College (out)

Duke drops off the top line after its first loss at Michigan.  Maryland's 23-point thrashing on the road at George Washington boosts the Terps' computer numbers (18 RPI, 11 SOS) and moves them up from a nine to a seven seed.  Miami's win at Kentucky returns the 'Canes to steady footing.  Florida State picked up a big win over in-state rival Florida to improve the 'Noles standing, while Boston College remains on the outside with a 53 RPI and a SOS just shy of 100.


Big East
Dancing with a hottie: Pitt (1), UConn (1), Syracuse (3), Villanova (3), Notre Dame (4)
Dancing with a butterface: Georgetown (5), Louisville (7), Marquette (7)
Wallflowers: West Virginia (11), Seton Hall (out)

Connecticut and Pittsburgh flip the overall No. 2 and 3 seeds following the Huskies' close call against Buffalo.  ND's loss to Ohio State drops the school down a couple seeds.  Still without a big win to offset its loss to Western Kentucky, I don't see how Louisville can be above a seven seed right now, especially since the Cardinals are 74th in the RPI with a SOS of 117.  Despite injuries to two of their top players, the Mountaineers were able to hang with No. 22 Davidson, only losing by three, and because of that West Virginia sneaks into the field.  Seton Hall, on the other hand, drops out after struggling with Non Div. I – California Baptist.  The Hall’s best win is over Virginia Tech.


Big 10
Dancing with a hottie: Ohio State (4), Purdue (4)
Dancing with a butterface: Michigan State (6), Michigan (7)
Wallflowers: Ohio State (8), Northwestern (8), Minnesota (9), Wisconsin (10), Illinois (10)

The Buckeyes have been one of the biggest overachievers in the nation thus far, winning at Miami before knocking off Notre Dame in Indianapolis.  Their game against Butler Saturday should be a good one.  Another surprising team from the Big 10 is Michigan, which beat off Duke for their second AP top five win of the season.  The Wolverines beat UCLA on Nov. 20.  The success stories from the projected middle of the pack teams in this conference continues with Northwestern, which held DePaul (RPI 39) to just 36 points last week.  It was the Wildcats second victory over a top 40 team in as many games and Northwestern now holds the fifth best RPI and ninth best strength of schedule.


Big XII
Dancing with a hottie: Oklahoma (2), Texas (3)
Dancing with a butterface: Baylor (5), Kansas (6)
Wallflowers: Missouri (11), Texas Tech (out), Nebraska (out), Oklahoma State (out)

Missouri beat Cal to run its record to 7-1 and keep itself in the field for now.  Texas Tech, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State meanwhile don’t have a single top 60 win between them and are therefore on the outside looking in.


Pac 10
Dancing with a butterface: Arizona State (5), UCLA (6)
Wallflowers: USC (10), California (11), Stanford (11), Washington State (out)

UCLA’s computer numbers (109 RPI, 178 SOS) and lack of a marquee win don’t warrant anything more than a six seed at this point, despite what their ranking might be.  USC’s computer numbers are equally grotesque and the Trojans don’t even have a top 100 win, but losing by just one point at Oklahoma proves they’re still tournament-worthy.


SEC
Dancing with a hottie: Tennessee (2)
Wallflowers: Florida (9), Kentucky (9), LSU (10), Ole Miss (11)

Losing to Florida State drops Florida in the at-large pecking order.  Kentucky didn’t help its chances any by losing at home to Miami.  LSU remains undefeated, but hasn’t played anyone ranked in the top 179 of the RPI. 


Mid Majors
Dancing with a hottie: Gonzaga (1), Xavier (2), Memphis (4)
Dancing with a butterface: Davidson (5), Dayton (6), Butler (8)
Wallflowers: BYU (12), Saint Mary’s (out)

The Zags continue to roll with a win over Indiana, and with Duke losing, the No. 1 RPI team takes over one of the top seeds.  Davidson’s win over West Virginia will go a long way towards securing an at-large bid should the Wildcats not win their conference tournament.  Butler is No. 3 in the RPI thanks to top 10 RPI wins over Northwestern and Evansville.

Automatic Bids: Evansville, Miami-Ohio, Boise State, Binghamton, George Mason, Utah, Western Kentucky, Niagara, UC Riverside, Eastern Washington, VMI, East Tennessee State, Central Connecticut, Navy, Jacksonville State, North Dakota State, Harvard, Lamar, Hampton, Alabama State

These are only the second-best bracket projections on the internet.  The best can be found at Facts & Bracks.

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man" is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at [e-mail]