Projecting the Field of 65: December 4
Because it's never too early to break out the brackets, I present to you my first 2008-2009 edition of Projecting the Field of 65.
The preseason tournaments revealed some early contenders and pretenders. North Carolina appears to be unstoppable no matter who's in the lineup, UCLA's streak of three straight Final Fours may be in jeopardy, and Syracuse is ready to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2006.
I like to break teams down into three categories. "Wallflowers" are bubble teams. Everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor. Elite teams safely in the field are "Dancing with a hottie" and in the middle are the schools which are "Dancing with a butterface."
ACC
Dancing with a hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (1), Wake Forest (3)
Dancing with a butterface: Clemson (7), Miami (8)
Wallflowers: Florida State (9), Maryland (10), Boston College (out)
Jack McClinton cost his team a win when he was ejected in the first half of Miami's game against Ohio State. But the 'Canes’ 6 SOS and 35 RPI keep them in the field for now. FSU picked up two solid wins over Cincinnati and California in the Global Sports Classic, so a loss at Northwestern doesn't hurt their resume too much.
Maryland has been one of the biggest surprises, tearing through the state of Michigan with wins over the Spartans and the Wolverines. As for BC, the wins over UAB and Iowa are nice, but they're going to have to do more to make up for that stunning loss at Saint Louis.
Big East
Dancing with a hottie: UConn (1), Pitt (1), Notre Dame (2), Syracuse (4), Villanova (4)
Dancing with a butterface: Louisville (6), Georgetown (6), Marquette (7)
Wallflowers: Seton Hall (9), West Virginia (out)
Louisville might be the No. 11 team in the country, but the Cardinals’ shocking 14-point loss at home to Western Kentucky has them on the fence right now. However, they’ll have plenty of chances to make amends against Ole Miss, Minnesota, UAB, UNLV and Kentucky over the next month and then there’s the whole Big East conference schedule.
Marquette’s early two-touchdown loss to Dayton puts the Golden Eagles on the hot seat as well before their big showdowns with Wisconsin and Tennessee. Seton Hall sneaks in with its win over USC in Puerto Rico, but without much meat left on their non-conference schedule, the Pirates will need to win 10 or 11 Big East games, which probably won’t happen.
WVU’s 43-point showing against Kentucky has the ‘Eers on the outside looking in, despite solid wins over Iowa and Ole Miss.
Big Ten
Dancing with a hottie: Purdue (3)
Dancing with a butterface: Michigan State (5), Wisconsin (7)
Wallflowers: Ohio State (8), Illinois (8), Michigan (9), Northwestern (10), Minnesota (10), Penn State (out)
It’s been a strange season so far for the Big Ten. The top two teams, Purdue and Michigan State, have struggled to pick up a marquee win, but the rest of the pack has overachieved, making this the top rated conference in the RPI. Ohio State had that impressive comeback at Miami, Michigan upset UCLA, Northwestern clobbered Florida State, and Minnesota is undefeated with top 80 wins over Virginia and Eastern Washington.
Penn State had a nice win at Georgia Tech, but the loss to Rhode Island combined with their 74 RPI and 192 SOS has the Nittany Lions in the NIT for now.
Big XII
Dancing with a hottie: Oklahoma (2), Texas (2)
Dancing with a butterface: Baylor (5), Kansas (6)
Wallflowers: Missouri (8), Texas Tech (11), Nebraska (out), Oklahoma State (out)
No shame in losing to Xavier by four and with a 6-1 record that includes a victory over USC, Missouri is in for now, but they better think about beating California or Illinois in the coming weeks. Texas Tech grabs my last spot with its 40 RPI, but with a weak non-conference schedule, the Red Raiders will have to do some heavy lifting come January and February.
Nebraska’s undefeated but a 72 RPI won’t get the job done. The Cornhuskers will have a chance to prove their worth at Arizona State Sunday. Oklahoma State’s win over Siena is a step in the right direction, but they’ll have to do more to overcome two losses and a 67 RPI.
Pac 10
Dancing with a butterface: UCLA (4), Arizona State (6)
Wallflowers: California (10), Stanford (11), USC (out), Washington State (out)
What a difference a year makes. After a dominant 2007-2008 campaign, the Pac 10 has struggled out the gate this season. It all began with the Bruins’ falling to Michigan and continued to ASU losing to Baylor, Cal getting beat by Florida State, and Southern Cal dropping games to Seton Hall and Missouri. This conference is skating on thin ice right now.
SEC
Dancing with a hottie: Tennessee (3)
Dancing with a butterface: Florida (5)
Wallflowers: Kentucky (9), LSU (11), Ole Miss (out), Vanderbilt (out)
For the second year in a row, Kentucky has begun its season with a bonehead loss—this one to VMI—but a win over West Virginia and a 30 RPI have the Wildcats in for now. LSU is undefeated, but the Tigers better start playing teams in the top 150. The Rebels’ home loss to WVU keeps them out and Vanderbilt’s defeat at the hands of Illinois-Chicago removes them from any consideration at the moment.
Mid Majors
Dancing with a hottie: Gonzaga (2), Xavier (3), Memphis (4)
Dancing with a butterface: Davidson (5), Dayton (7)
Wallflowers: BYU (11), Saint Mary’s (out), Rhode Island (out), Illinois State (out)
Davidson would’ve been an interesting case for the Selection Committee last March had they not garnered an automatic bid and the same thing will hold true this season if the Wildcats continue to play close-but-no-cigar with heavyweights like Oklahoma. They have a few more chances against WVU, Purdue and Duke before heading back to the minor leagues.
Dayton looks great right now at 7-0 with a win over Marquette. BYU’s another one of those teams that need to start beating some real competition. Saint Mary’s suffered a disappointing loss to UTEP. Rhode Island had a near miss at Duke before missing out on another opportunity at Villanova. And Illinois State’s strength of schedule is an awe-inspiring 339th.
Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man" is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.
Jordan can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com
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