Iowa Football: Key Matchups When the Hawks Play Minnesota

This week, the Hawks suit up for their annual rivalry game against Minnesota, in which the two teams meet up for one of the more interesting rivalry trophies in all of college sports.

Also, for the third week in a row, Iowa plays one of the three worst defenses in the Big Ten. In fact, in this case, they play arguably the worst defense. At the very least, statistically, the Gophers are the  worst defense in the conference.

And the offense isn't much better.

Personally, I'm not complaining. We knew coming into this season that the schedule would be one of the Hawkeyes' greatest assets.

Unfortunately, this is the last easy week, as November is shaping up to be a monster, with home games against the two Michigan teams, a roadie against Nebraska and a tougher-than-one-would-think road game against Purdue.

Besides, just because Minnesota stinks doesn't mean the Hawkeyes will win. After all, they stunk last year as well.

Nevertheless, all logic points to an Iowa win, and Las Vegas agrees, as they're currently giving the Hawks 17.5 points.

That said, Iowa will have to jump through some hoops before cruising to that easy a victory.

James Vandenberg vs. the Road

The first thing most Hawkeye fans think of regarding James Vandenberg still might be his first start against Ohio State in Shoe. That was in 2009, when he was a redshirt freshman thrown into the fire. Now, he is a junior and is the head of the offense.

His road heroics—even in a loss—do not demonstrate how poorly he has fared away from the friendly confines of Kinnick Stadium.

In eight career starts, JVB is 0-3 on the road and 5-0 at home. His career road quarterback efficiency is an unimpressive 114.84. His home efficiency is a much more impressive 143.10.

In some fairness, these statistics have hardly been generated in a vacuum. After all, his road opponents have been two top 10 defenses in 2009 OSU and 2011 Penn State, as well as a 2011 Iowa State defense that was hungry for a win against its arch nemesis.

Meanwhile, his home competitors have been 2009 Northwestern and Minnesota; and 2011 Tennessee Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, Northwestern and Indiana (as well as cleanup appearances in 2010).

Still, a game against weak competition will clear up some questions as to how effective Vandenberg is on the road.

Minnesota Passing Offense vs. Iowa's Pass Defense

Minnesota's passing offense is terrible. The Gophers' cumulative quarterback efficiency rating—they have started two quarterbacks—is 103.07. That is last in the Big Ten and 114th in the country.

Their completion percentage is beneath 50 percent.

The problem is Iowa's pass defense also isn't especially good. The Hawks rank 86th in the country and ninth in the Big Ten with an opponent passer efficiency rating of 136.62.

They have allowed a season high single game efficiency rating to Iowa State and Pitt; Indiana's second best rating of the season; and the third best to ULM, Penn State and Northwestern.

The only opponent that completed less than 60 percent of its passes against Iowa was PSU.

Is this contest a meeting of a force that can't move anything vs. an object that can't stop anything?

Iowa Defense vs. Dual Threat Quarterbacks

Gopher quarterback Marqueis Gray can barely hit the side of a barn—he has completed 48.7 percent of his passes this season—but he is a good rushing quarterback.

In fact, he may be the best true rushing quarterback Iowa will face this season.

Yes, I know Denard and T-Magic. The problem with them as rushing quarterbacks is that they are small, and, dare I say, damageable. They will not run through tackles—they will just outrun. With Robinson and Martinez, if you give them an opening, it's off to the races, but if a defender can lay a paw on them, they will probably go down.

Meanwhile, Gray is a solid 6'4", 240 pounds.

This season, he has 438 yards on 94 carries. That is good for 4.66 YPC. And keep in mind, Minnesota has the worst offensive line in the Big Ten, only one decent receiver and mediocre running backs.

Shoelace and Martinez may have much gaudier stats, but they have a little help.

In short, Gray will be tough to bring down, and Iowa's had problems tackling this year to say the least.

Iowa Blitz Pickup vs. Minnesota Pass Rush

This season, Iowa has had issues with the blitz pickup, particularly with blitzing off the edge.

It is easy to blame the offensive line for the Hawks' woes, but the fault lies with the entire offense.

Not only does the line have to do its job, but the receivers have to recognize the blitz and adjust their routes accordingly; the tight ends and running backs have blitz pick up responsibilities; and most importantly, JVB has to see a blitz coming and make the necessary adjustments.

Last week, the Hoosiers had four sacks. On one of those sacks, they blitzed their cornerbacks off the edge. Right before the ball was snapped, Greg Heban, who was lined up against Marvin McNutt, threatened blitz. McNutt recognized it, pointed it out and called for a hot route pass. JVB didn't see it and an unmolested Heban came in and notched a sack.

In short, that sack was entirely on the quarterback. Sacks off the edges have plagued Iowa for years, which leads one to believe that it is a scheme or developmental deficiency.

Either way, Iowa is sixth in the Big Ten, having allowed 14 sacks this year.

On the other hand, Minnesota is last in the conference and tied for last in the country with five sacks to its credit.

In short, the Hawks have to keep JVB clean in this game, and they will have no excuse if they don't.

Minnesota and Iowa vs. Turnovers

The Gophers are currently last in the conference and tied for 109th in the country with a minus-one turnover margin. In other words, they are giving away a possession per game.

Iowa is a respectable +.43.

To put it bluntly, this Minnesota team is not good in any facet of the game.

The Iowa offense shouldn't have any problems with them. I wouldn't go so far as to say the Iowa defense shouldn't have any problems with them, given some of the issues that are plaguing the defense.

Nonetheless, the defense shouldn't have any problems holding the Gopher offense to less points than the Hawkeye O generates.

In effect, unless the Hawks come out as flat and lifeless as they did last season, the only way Minnesota can win is via turnovers. If the previous numbers are any indication, that doesn't seem likely.

Iowa and Minnesota vs. Special Teams Dominance

As previously mentioned, Minnesota needs to win the turnover battle to win this game. They also need to win the special teams battle.

This is good for the Gophers as it is the one area of their team that has gone fairly well this season.

Minnesota kickoff returner Marcus Jones has already run one back for a touchdown. Also, punt returner Duane Bennett has a touchdown return to his credit.

On top of that, Minnesota boasts the second-best kickoff return coverage in the conference to go with a decent punting game.

The only blotch on the Gopher special teams is the field goal kicking unit, which has gone six-for-nine this season.

As for Iowa, regardless what the stats say, they have been up and down. Moreover, I don't know how other Hawkeye fans feel, but whenever Iowa kicks off, I close my eyes and hope for the best.

The bottom line is in order for Minnesota to win this game, they need to win the special teams battle outright. The Hawks win if the special teams are a stalemate.

Iowa and Minnesota vs. Bowl Eligibility

Both teams will be playing for bowl eligibility, though in different ways.

If Minnesota loses, they will be mathematically ineligible to make a bowl.

On the other hand, if Iowa wins, they will be bowl eligible.

Given the way Iowa has played at times this season, and given how difficult November projects to be, this might be the last time the Hawks are favored this year. In other words, they might need this win when it comes time for bowl selection.

Iowa's Receivers vs. Minnesota's Secondary

In case you haven't heard, Marvin McNutt is pretty good.

Last week, he took sole possession of the Iowa career touchdown reception record. He is also on pace to shatter a slew of other Hawkeye receiving records, both career and season.

Keenan Davis is also a dangerous weapon.

The Minnesota secondary—not so much. The Gophers have the third worst opponent passer efficiency rating in the conference. The worst two are Iowa's last two opponents—Northwestern and Indiana—who the Hawkeyes shattered to the tune of a combined 220.71 passer efficiency rating.

Minnesota starting cornerback Troy Stoudermire is questionable as he recovers from a broken wrist.

As has been the case all season—and will be the case all season—the Hawks have to look for the mismatch on the outside and get the ball into Davis' and especially McNutt's hands.

Marcus Coker vs. the Minnesota Rushing Defense

Minnesota is currently last in the Big Ten and 108th in the country in rushing defense. The Gophers are letting up a catastrophic 5.08 YPC. And they haven't even played Wisconsin yet.

I have the feeling a good high school team could manage two-three YPC against this bunch.

Meanwhile, the Iowa offense has 4.13 YPC, which is seventh in the conference. They seem to have become a pass-first team, but last week the Hawks opened up against IU—the second-worst rushing defense in the conference—with five straight running plays.

Ultimately, it is difficult to imagine the Minnesota defense being able to stop a kitten. In effect, one is left to wonder how the Iowa offense—currently the third most efficient offense in the conference—will come at the Gophers.

Iowa vs. Revenge

Last year's Minnesota game might go down alongside the 2006 Northwestern game as the low points of the Kirk Ferentz era.

Following the 24-27 loss, former Hawkeye defensive end Adrian Clayborn said Iowa lost its "will to win."

All of the non-true freshmen on this team were in the program to witness the Hawks' collapse.

Kirk Ferentz usually plays down such things, but Iowa definitely wants to make up for last year's embarrassment and get the pig back where it belongs. Meanwhile, Minny has little to play for this year outside of the pig and axe. They've already lost the jug.

It must be sad to be a program with three of the best traveling trophies in the country, yet they never get to hold on to them.

Five Keys to an Iowa Victory

1. The Golden Gophers are not good.

Same as Indiana. Iowa needs to beat them, take the life out of them and bring on the scrubs. The Hawkeyes have no business letting the Gophers compete in this game.

2. Contain Marqueis Gray.

The Hawks have a bad habit of letting lousy quarterbacks play better-than-lousy games. They also have a bad habit of allowing mobile quarterbacks to run all over them.

3. Get the ball into the hands of the offensive playmakers.

As the incomparable Ramones said, "second verse, same as the first." This will be a theme for the Iowa offense throughout the season. Iowa's best playmakers are receivers Keenan Davis and Marvin McNutt. Get the ball in their hands as early and as often as possible.

4. This will open up the running game.

Once that happens, put the ball in Marcus Coker's increasingly able hands and punish the defense. This will give the Hawks the chance to ice the game in the third quarter against a tired Minnesota defensive front.

5. Take care of the ball and don't lose on special teams.

The Gophers cannot compete with Iowa on offense or defense. Minnesota's only chance—outside of an Iowa meltdown similar to last season—will be turnovers and winning the field position battle. Don't let it happen.