Big Ten in the Polls: Shakeups, Dropouts and BCS Hopes Dashed

This week the Big Ten sees the most significant movement in the polls since Nebraska was beaten by Wisconsin in the first week of conference play.  

Two teams that didn't see movement in the BCS—the only poll that matters anymore—were Michigan at 18 and Nebraska (which slid one spot back to 14), both of which held steady after a bye week, and what was by all means a bye week for Nebraska (ladies and gentlemen, Minnesota football: the equivalent of a bye week).

The Wolverines face off against Purdue this week in a game that only has the power to do damage. Nebraska, on the other hand, gets a shot at the new conference alpha dog, Michigan State.  The Spartans will be traveling to Lincoln for that one in what could be a tough game after back-to-back emotional matchups against Michigan and Wisconsin.

Now, let's look at the winners, losers and what this means for the Big Ten in the BCS.

Winners:

Michigan State obviously gets a big bump after knocking off Wisconsin on national television. Michigan State moves up to 11th in the BCS.  With a trip to Nebraska coming up, the Spartans could get another bump going into a string of games against unranked opponents.

Penn State also climbed high in the poll to 19th after beating Northwestern to move to 7-1 on the season. The Nittany Lions have done all they could for most of the season—winning every game, save for Alabama in Week 2—but the true test will come in the last three weeks of the season when Penn State has to play Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin in consecutive weeks.

Losers:

Wisconsin drops to 15th in the poll after losing to Michigan State.  With games against four unranked teams coming up before playing Penn State, the Badgers aren't going to have a great chance to make up ground in the polls unless they get to the Big Ten Championship Game.

Illinois finally falls out of the polls after a sharp drop last week.  A win against Penn State next week might be able to salvage the Illini's reputation, but it is going to take more than one win over Penn State to get voters to trust Ron Zook again.

What it means for the BCS:

It means that barring a rather incredible series of events, the Big Ten is once again irrelevant in the discussion for BCS championship participants.  Wisconsin held an advantageous position last week in the initial BCS rankings on the strength of being ahead of most of the plausible unbeaten candidates (Boise State not counting as such) and behind the two SEC and Big 12 schools, which were scheduled to meet during the regular season.

Now, one-loss Michigan State is the conference's highest ranked team at 11th, and the Spartans have, at most, an outside chance of making the BCS title game.  Observe:

- Barring some historic upset, one of the two SEC powers will make the BCS title game.  Can someone upset either LSU or Alabama before the end of the regular season?  Can the SEC East winner hope to pull out a win in the SEC championship game?  Would it even matter?

As things stand, even a one-loss LSU or Alabama is getting in over Michigan State no matter what. So MSU needs both these teams to lose.

- Next is the Big 12 trio of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State.  Oklahoma seemingly took itself out of contention, but with games left against the other two schools, the Sooners would plausibly jump a Michigan State team that will be lucky to play another top 10 team (this assumes Wisconsin struggles to climb back into the top 10 with no ranked opponents over the next month—not a stretch to imagine).  

If Kansas State or Oklahoma State win out?  Ditto.  Even if one of the two—let's call it team x for clarity purposes—loses to one of the other schools, but beats the second, it is possible for team x to stay in contention.

- Then there are the other two unbeaten BCS conference teams.  If Stanford and/or Clemson win out, both are picked over MSU.  If Stanford loses to Oregon, Oregon most likely goes.

- Boise State?  Probably not, but if that much pandemonium has happened to move both schools that high, this could be the year the voters give Boise a shot, because at this point the rest of the country doesn't think much more of the Big Ten than the MWC.

What does all this conjecture and guesswork mean?  Basically, Michigan State is depending on a string of very big upsets to open up a chance at the BCS title game.  Not only is MSU behind a number of unbeaten teams, but the Spartans are realistically behind a few one-loss teams as well.

Blame this on the Spartan's loss to Notre Dame, or Wisconsin's loss to Michigan State.  Blame it on the rest of the Big Ten being noticeably weaker this year.  However, make no mistake about it: the Big Ten is, for all intents and purposes, not going to factor into the any bowl projection outside of "Rose." 

Not that that is a bad consolation prize.