UFC 94: St. Pierre vs Penn—BJ Penn Has a Puncher's Chance

Super Bowl XLIII won’t be the only major sporting event taking place on the weekend of January 31st 2009. UFC 94 is scheduled to hold another one of those increasingly popular “Super Fights” between George St. Pierre and B.J. Penn.

Many people probably look at my title and scoff at it. That being said, there are a lot of facts to support the view that St. Pierre is the favorite and Penn’s best chance maybe a puncher’s chance.

Obviously George St. Pierre doesn’t have many cracks in his game that can be exploited. St. Pierre is 18-2 in MMA with a loss via submission at UFC 50 to Matt Hughes and a TKO due to strikes at the hands of Matt Serra in UFC 69. In both cases St. Pierre won the rematches in rather dominating fashion.

St. Pierre beat B.J. Penn in a close decision at UFC 58 and many people feel the fight could have gone Penn’s way as well. Since then, aside from the Serra loss, St. Pierre is riding the peak of his career and seems to be at his absolute best. His last fight against Jon Fitch, the top Welterweight contender showed that he is in a class of his own.

Even though Fitch hung in for the whole five rounds, he was outclassed and basically proved to the world that he has an iron chin and not much more.

B.J. Penn on the other hand sits atop the Lightweight division with the only real challenger remaining being Kenny Florian who is on a six fight win streak. B.J. Penn is 13-4-1 lifetime in MMA and in his four losses three have gone to a decision.

Penn is one of the top BJJ fighters in the UFC, but he's very balanced, with five knockouts, five submissions and three decision wins on his resume.

Clearly Penn is a natural lightweight which can be seen simply by looking at his MMA record where that three of his four losses in MMA were against fighters in heavier weight classes. This is not to say B.J. can’t fight in a heavier weight class, he did hold the Welterweight belt at one time. However, Penn is not in his comfort zone when he is fighting in higher weight classes.

The last Penn - St. Pierre match was at the 170 lbs limit, so it would have been nice to see this match-up fought at the 155 lbs limit. That being said, St. Pierre is not a natural lightweight and his frame would not really let him get down to a legitimate 155 lbs considering he already cuts down 15-20 lbs to fight in the welterweight division.

The main reason Penn has losses at the higher weight classes is because he doesn’t put on weight that gives him a strength advantage in my opinion and it seems to slow him down. In addition, he is only 5’9" and sports a 70” reach at best, to put it in perspective, St. Pierre is 5’10" and has a 76” reach. The gap in reach is the same as the gap between Couture and Lesnar and we saw how that affected the outcome of the fight at UFC 91.

All this being said, my opinion is still that B.J. Penn’s best chance at winning the fight is to “Catch” St.-Pierre with a heavy fist and knock him out.

Although George St. Pierre is arguably one of the best pound for pound fighters in MMA, there is a weakness that makes him vulnerable to any fighter with some knockout power, his chin. Unlike his countryman and last opponent, Patrick Côté and Jon Fitch, St. Pierre can get knocked silly pretty easily.

Some people may argue that St. Pierre is 18-2 in MMA and has only been knocked out once. However, I would venture to say that in his loss to Serra the initial shot that sent him reeling wasn’t a shot that would have put some of the fighters with the tougher chins on ice. Yeah, the first shot dealt by Serra didn’t put St. Pierre out, but it clearly threw him way off his game.

In his last fight, St. Pierre clearly dominated the whole fight and Jon Fitch looked more like a walking zombie then an MMA fighter at the final bell. However, there were a few points in the fight where Fitch connected and each and every time he connected it looked as if St. Pierre saw some stars.

Does this make St. Pierre a weak fighter? Of course not, he will be in the UFC hall of fame when all is said and done and will go down as one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world along with Anderson Silva and Fedor Emelianenko.

I am simply pointing out that if there is a crack in George St. Pierre’s game that can be exploited it is his chin.

In my opinion George St. Pierre’s wrestling will allow him to defend against Penn’s Brazilian Jiu Jitsui on the ground and in the stand up St. Pierre’s height, reach and striking advantage will probably lead to a St. Pierre victory if it goes to a decision. I think Penn’s best shot is to keep the fight standing and be patient in looking for solid head shots that would allow him to move in for the finish.

I won’t deny it, I am a George St. Pierre fan being a Montreal native and the chips are clearly on St. Pierre’s side. But, training a strong chin isn’t really possible thus making him vulnerable to anyone who can throw a punch.

In any case after this fight takes place there aren’t many options as to where these fighters are going next. Kenny Florian has been patiently waiting for his title shot and unless Penn beats St. Pierre and vacates the light weight belt, Florian-Penn is the next logical fight.

As for St.-Pierre, there is no real welter weight contender and St. Pierre will find himself in another super fight against Anderson Silva at a catch weight or 185 lbs.

In any case with a big heavyweight fight between Lesnar and the winner of Mir-Nogueira, 2009 looks to have some exciting match-ups in the UFC.

My Prediction, St. Pierre wins by another decision or knockout.