BCS Rankings 2011: Mapping Out Arkansas Razorbacks' Path to the National Title

The Arkansas Razorbacks (6-1, 2-1 in SEC) aren't expected to make it to the BCS National Championship game. However, with a late-season surge and some good fortune, this team may play for a title for the first time in nearly 50 years.

Arkansas is facing adversity for the following reasons:

• The team ranks No.10 in the BCS standings.

• The Razorbacks will enter Week 9 as the third-place team in their own division.

• Arkansas has won only one true road game in 2011.

Here's what needs to happen for this team to earn a trip to New Orleans in January.

1. Arkansas Defeats Vanderbilt

Already with one blotch on their record, the Razorbacks will need to win the rest of their games in 2011, beginning with Saturday's divisional battle at Vanderbilt.

The Commodores (4-3, 1-3 in SEC) should be an easy appetizer in a five-meal course of SEC competition.

They have had awful quarterback play from Jordan Rodgers and Larry Smith. Also, Vanderbilt has struggled to force turnovers against its opponents.

Vanderbilt is coming into this matchup after beating Army, 44-21.

2. Arkansas Defeats South Carolina

Amid lots of drama, the Gamecocks (6-1, 4-1 in SEC) have been the best team in the conference's Eastern Division.

USC made a change under center after its lone loss to Auburn, putting Connor Shaw in as starting quarterback while dismissing Stephen Garcia from the team entirely. The program also lost All-
American running back Marcus Lattimore after he suffered a season-ending knee injury against Mississippi State.

The Hogs will host South Carolina on November 5. Although their home crowd should make them very comfortable, they won't gain much from the BCS computers, which take venue into consideration when generating rankings.

Given the changes they've had to make on offense, the Gamecocks aren't likely to keep up with Arkansas. Coming off a bye week, though, they will be well-versed on Tyler Wilson and the rest of the Razorbacks' attack.

3. LSU Defeats Alabama

Within an hour of that kickoff time in Fayetteville, the No. 1 LSU Tigers and No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide will clash in Tuscaloosa in the most hyped game of the college football season.

The teams have two of the top three scoring defenses in the nation.

Neither has lost yet in 2011. In fact, LSU (8-0, 5-0 in SEC) and Alabama (8-0, 5-0 in SEC) have passed each of their tests with double-digit margins of victory.

Something's gotta give, and for Arkansas' sake it better be the Crimson Tide. The Hogs already played—and lost convincingly—Alabama in September. A win for the Tide in Week 10 would put them miles ahead in the BCS standings.

4. Arkansas Defeats Tennessee

Arkansas catches a break on November 12 as the homestand continues against the Tennessee Volunteers (3-4, 0-4 in SEC).

Tennessee's sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray has been excellent this season, but he might still be out with a broken thumb by the time this game rolls around. If that is the case, freshman Justin Worley would start.

Their interim passer was senior Matt Simms, who completed barely 40 percent of his throws.

The Vols have been plagued by general rushing futility and defensive vulnerability in the red zone.

5. LSU Overlooks Western Kentucky or Ole Miss

So far, all the necessary conditions for Arkansas to earn a national championship game berth have been realistic, even likely. That ends here.

According to Chris Low of ESPN.com, the BCS standings would determine the SEC West winner in the case of a three-way tie. This is a scenario that Arkansas must avoid.

The Hogs' non-conference schedule of Missouri State, New Mexico, Troy and Texas A&M doesn't compare to what the Tigers signed up for: Northwestern State, Oregon, West Virginia and Western Kentucky.

Strength of schedule is heavily weighted by the computers, so I can't imagine Arkansas getting the nod if LSU is 11-1, too. The pollsters would also stay loyal to Les Miles for his team's dominance in the first two-thirds of the season.

The Razorbacks need the LSU Tigers to suffer a post-'Bama letdown to either Western Kentucky or Ole Miss.

The Hilltoppers (3-4, 3-1 in Sun Belt) are riding a three-game winning streak, which might reach five by the time they travel to Baton Rouge.

The Rebels (2-5, 0-4 in SEC), however, are the laughing stock of the conference.

6. Arkansas Defeats LSU

Of course, the Hogs have to dismantle the Tigers themselves to earn any title game consideration.

It will be played on the Friday afternoon after Thanksgiving—November 25—in front of a slightly sour crowd, that is if the previous condition unbelievably comes to fruition.

LSU finally has stability at the quarterback position with Jarrett Lee. He hasn't been picked off since Week 3.

His tall target Rueben Randle is arguably the best wideout in the SEC. Randle averages more than 19 yards per reception.

Michael Ford and Spencer Ware are both thick, powerful running backs. They have combined for 13 touchdowns.

Then there is the defense. The Tigers have extraordinary depth at every level, especially in the secondary.

Morris Claiborne? Tyrann Mathieu? Those are names Arkansas doesn't want to hear about.

The Hogs don't exactly have a lengthy receiving core to tower over these defensive backs. Nonetheless, they will have to find a way to win.

7. Oklahoma State Runs the Table, Finishes No. 1

If it wasn't clear, I'm projecting the Razorbacks to finish the regular season at No. 2. There are simply too many great teams in front of them entering Week 9 to allow an ascension to the very top by season's end.

If the Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-0, 4-0 in Big 12) go undefeated and consequently finish No. 1, Bobby Petrino would practically be thanking them on his hands and knees.

Their remaining opponents include No. 8 Kansas State and No. 9 Oklahoma. Wins against the Wildcats and Sooners would push them underneath the Hogs in the standings.

8. Boise State, Clemson Lose to ANYBODY!

The BCS system has been unkind to Boise State throughout its current dynasty.

The Broncos (7-0, 2-0 in MWC) have been left out of the national championship game following perfect campaigns before, so one loss would certainly eliminate them this year.

Their move to the Mountain West Conference hasn't done much to bolster their strength of schedule. Boise State will enter the weekend as the country's fifth-ranked program, but a slipup in any of their final games would be devastating.

Similarly, Clemson cannot afford to get complacent.

The Tigers (8-0, 5-0 in ACC) have proven very little in 2011 through eight games. They may be undefeated, but six of those eight have been home games, and their schedule hasn't been exceptionally grueling in a down year for the Atlantic Coast Conference.

A single "L" would not stop them from winning a conference title, but it would bury them below the Hogs in the BCS standings.

9. Oregon/Stanford Winner Chokes in Pac-12 Championship Game

The sixth-ranked Stanford Cardinal (7-0, 5-0 in Pac-12) and seventh-ranked Oregon Ducks (6-1, 4-0 in Pac-12) will meet on November 12 to essentially decide the race in the conference's North Division. The outcome is irrelevant from the Hogs' perspective: They need the victor to falter in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

It appears that the USC Trojans and Arizona State Sun Devils are the only potential candidates to emerge from the South Division. If either won the conference championship, the Oregon/Stanford winner would—you guessed it—drop beneath Arkansas.

10. Alabama Falls in Conference Championship Game

To recap, these conditions would place the Razorbacks ahead of Boise State, Clemson, Kansas State, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon and Stanford. Oklahoma State would finish the season undefeated and earn a title game berth.

The troublesome team here is Alabama. Would the Crimson Tide, with a late-season loss to LSU, be more attractive than the Razorbacks with their lone loss coming in September?

It's not important. The Tide would represent the SEC West on the strength of their head-to-head wins.

But what if they went down against the SEC East champion?

If this happens—well, if all of this happens—then Arkansas would indeed shock the nation and play for a championship on January 9. We'll just have to see how many breaks go the Hogs' way.