Big Ten Football: Can One Team in BCS Race Convince League to Expand

The first BCS standings have arrived, and the Big Ten has received confirmation of the bad news that began on Saturday. When fellow undefeated teams Michigan and Illinois lost their first games of the season, Wisconsin was left all alone among the ranks of the undefeated teams.

Not surprisingly, the Badgers are now left as the Big Ten Conference's only hope for the BCS Championship. Coming in at No. 6 in the initial BCS Standings, Wisconsin needs help from multiple places to reach the top two of the final BCS standings.

However, that is better than the next highest Big Ten teams, which are Nebraska at No. 13 and Michigan State at No. 16.  Both of these teams will not receive the benefit of the doubt over the one loss teams already above them, as well as the teams ranked in the top four (LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State) that lose once.

Years like 2007 only come once every blue moon, so the Cornhuskers and Spartans are already effectively out of the race. With a season filled with excitement and promise thanks to the addition of Nebraska, the BCS standings are a punch in the gut.

It's Wisconsin or nothing.

So with that being the case, will the Big Ten be more inclined to expand beyond 12 teams and join the realignment fracas once more?

The Simple Answer: No.

Now let's take a deeper look as to why the Big Ten will not be forced to move by any single BCS standings. As a preliminary matter, the BCS system does not reward certain conferences based on their size.

On the contrary, the only benefit of having a bigger conference over the past few seasons has been playing a high profile conference championship game at the final week of the season. Even that "benefit" has burned just as many high profile teams as it has helped, as a loss in the conference championship game is almost certainly a block to the BCS Championship, as well as other BCS bowl games.

But the Big Ten already has equal footing with the other big conferences in this regard now that Nebraska has made the conference into a 12 team league. Although the Big Ten Championship is another opportunity for Wisconsin to lose at the end of the season, that final high profile game will keep Wisconsin on pace with Stanford, Oregon, Clemson, and Boise State, who may all be playing that weekend trying to overcome the Badgers in the BCS standings.

Additionally, there is no precedent for how a conference larger than 12 teams benefits or burdens in a season–long BCS chase. Just because a conference is bigger does not necessarily mean that the added teams make the conference better.

There is one big problem with adding teams to a 12 team conference: unless the quality of teams improves or stays the same, then the high profile games between the best teams in the conference will only be diluted by more games against weaker competition.

Looking at teams in the current top 25 of the BCS standings, only West Virginia and the teams from Oklahoma are potential additions that would perennially move the quality of football upwards. Each of those three teams do not bring in a huge television market, and the academics and other sports also may not be a good fit.

Thus, the likely additions to the conference would actually dilute the level of competition and the frequency of high power showdowns in the Big Ten. Instead of playing 4–5 games against BCS ranked opposition, Wisconsin would instead perhaps be playing only 3–4 games of that caliber per year. Thus, adding teams would likely exacerbate the visibility problems in the Big Ten.

With the exception of the SEC, which will likely continue to dominate recruiting from top to bottom and thus stay the best conference in college football, every other conference shifts up and down in perception every season. The fall of Ohio State may be the best thing that could happen to the Big Ten in the long run, as the next season or two may put a lot of other teams in the public perception as respectable teams.

For example, the Big Ten struggled to keep four teams in the BCS top 25 last year when Ohio State and two others ran away with the conference. Although more tight competition may knock the Big Ten out of the national title chase the next two seasons, those battles on the field could lead to more overall teams being ranked. This will cause the conference profile to rise like the SEC.

A silver lining in the initial BCS standings: the Big Ten has the most teams in the top 25 with six. Michigan comes in at No. 18, Penn State at No. 21, and Illinois at No. 23. Thus, half the teams in the conference will carry a ranking next weekend into game action.

Wisconsin will benefit from this because Nebraska will remain a quality win while Michigan State, Illinois, and Penn State remain on the schedule. With another big win this weekend in East Lansing and more highlight–reel plays from Russell Wilson, Wisconsin will stay right in the public eye until the final three games, which could all be against BCS ranked teams.

None of the teams currently ranked above Wisconsin have a tougher final three weeks of the season, at least according to the BCS rankings. Making the conference bigger almost certainly increases the percentage of teams in the conference not ranked nationally, and improves the likelihood that Wisconsin does not have such a strong finishing schedule.

For at least these reasons, the Big Ten will not and should not be motivated to expand further thanks to only having one horse in the BCS race in 2011. Keep building the middle rank of the conference to become more like the SEC and the Big 12, and the Big Ten will benefit from having the perfect number of teams: 12.