BCS Rankings 2011: How BCS Top 5 Should Really Look After Week 8

There isn't a more talked about, analyzed and contentious topic in all of sports than the BCS.  Year in, year out, the BCS rankings provides hundreds of topics of debate, all of which are hypothetical, theoretical, rhetorical and without answer.

With the first week of the rankings being released today, one would think that there would be a immediate landslide of debate, but it seems that as of right now, there isn't much to be debated.  People aren't pushing the panic button because we all realize that the top four will play each other—Alabama vs. LSU, and Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State.

So the most important ranking that was revealed today was who sat at No. 5. It is, in my opinion, that Boise was the right choice at that ranking.

I say that as a prelude to the topic of my article. I want it to be known that I agree one hundred percent with the current top five, and therefore, I have used those as a starting block for my preview of next week's rankings.

Therefore, here is what I believe the top five will look like after next week's games. 

5. Boise State

As I stated in the opening, the BCS is the most contentious topic in all of sports.  One of the main reasons for that is Boise State.

Until Boise State joins a BCS conference (if they ever do), they will remain the most talked about, debated team in the BCS rankings.  Let's not look at the fact that they beat Oklahoma in 2007, or TCU in 2010, because that is irrelevant.  Instead, let's look at what they have done this year.

They open the season against Georgia in the Georgia Dome.  They dominate, building a 28-7 lead in the third quarter.  Now, Georgia is re-establishing themselves as the favorite in the SEC East.

Then, Boise travels to Toledo and wins by 25.  The same Toledo team that was beating Ohio State the entire game in Columbus.

Then, they come home and beat Tulsa and Nevada each by 20.  Tulsa lost by 33 to Oklahoma, and 26 to Oklahoma State.  Nevada remains the WAC favorites. 

They then travel to Fresno, and absolutely destroy the Bulldogs, 57-7.  Fresno State had competed in Lincoln, losing 42-29, but they lose by 50 at home to Boise.

Finally, Boise travels to Fort Collins and beats Colorado State...by 50. 

Down the road, Boise still plays Air Force, TCU, and San Diego State.

This wasn't to give you a recap of their season, or to tell you about their schedule.  This summary was meant to illustrate that maybe, just maybe, Boise's schedule isn't as easy as everyone thinks.  The perception that Boise just plays cupcake after cupcake needs to be re-evaluated.  If they don't want to consider Boise for the championship for other reasons, so be it, but it shouldn't be their schedule that prohibits them from competing for a title.

Looking ahead to this week...Boise has no problem with an Air Force team that is 111th in the nation in points allowed.   Boise rolls, and stays No. 5 in the rankings.

4. Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State is deserving of the No. 4 ranking.  While their defense isn't in the league of Alabama or LSU, it is getting better, and the offense is the best in the nation.

Well, almost the best.  They are ranked No. 2 in total yards and points per game.  Wisconsin is ahead of them in points, and Houston is ahead of them in yards.  Still, it is safe to say OSU's offense is as good as anyone's.

The defense is steadily getting better.  33 points in a late game at Tulsa is overshadowed by allowing only 26 points on 370 yards to Texas, and only 29 points against Texas A&M. 

It is the timing of the stops, however, that is impressive.  After falling behind 27-10 to Texas A&M, they held the Aggies scoreless in the second half (safe for a late, self-imposed safety).  Plus, their offense scores so quickly and so often, that their defense is on the field more often, so the statistics are certainly skewed a bit (they only held the ball for 20 minutes last week against Texas).

That all being said, OSU definitely has the greatest chance of losing next week at Missouri.  This distinction comes almost by default, as the other teams are playing much inferior competition, but nevertheless, Mizzou should not be taken lightly. 

The Tigers had a chance to take down the Sun Devils in Tempe, and played Oklahoma to a 10 point margin in Norman.  It was the second fewest points the Sooners scored all season.

Oklahoma State seems to get better every week though.  Weeden (pictured) has not thrown an interception in his last three games.  I think OSU wins in a close one, and stays at No. 4.

3. Oklahoma

A No. 3 ranking for the Sooners seems fair, as they are ranked No. 3 in the AP Poll, and have not played as strong of a schedule as the two SEC teams.

Oklahoma has been impressive, especially against Texas.  They steamrolled their rivals to the South, forcing five turnovers and building a 48-10 lead.

They are running the ball much less.  They have 221 attempts through six games this year, compared to 578 attempts in 14 games last year, a difference of about 11 carries per game.  This is odd to me, as they are averaging 4.4 yards per attempt this season, compared to just 3.3 yards per attempt last season.

Still, the passing game is great.  Landry Jones is completing 67.6 percent of his passes, and Broyles (pictured) is having an All-World season.  The senior has 60 catches for 815 yards and nine touchdowns.

Texas Tech is an improving team, but they are no match for the Sooners in Norman this week.  OU rolls.

2. Alabama

The Alabama-LSU debate won't die until they square off on November 5th.  Even still, and depending how things turn out, many may argue for an Alabama LSU championship game.  That would be exciting, but we have to focus on the present.  For now, Alabama is No. 2 in the BCS rankings.

The Tide have allowed exactly 7.0 points per game, the best in the nation.  Trent Richardson (pictured) is getting better every week, and as result, Alabama is averaging 241.6 yards per game on the ground, 12th in the nation. 

Alabama is able to impose their will on other teams.  They do this by playing great defense, and running the ball.

Consider the Florida game.  Alabama surrendered a 65 yard touchdown on the first play of the game.  After that, they allowed only 157 yards the rest of the game.  Additionally, the Tide rushed 43 times for 226 yards, and held the ball for just under 35 minutes.

They haven't asked A.J. McCarron to do much, but he hasn't had to do.  Even against Penn State, the closest game Alabama has had to play, McCarron only threw 31 times, and finished with a 5.3 yards per completion average.  They won in Happy Valley because of the running game and defense.   They held the Nittany Lions to 11 points on 251 yards, and ran 41 times for 196 yards.  Might not be the gaudiest rushing totals until you realize it was on the road, and Penn State allows only 103 yards per game.

The main concern, if there is one, remains to be McCarron.  It will be interesting to see how he performs when he absolutely has to.  It hasn't happened yet, and it might not ever.

Still, the Tide are averaging 39.7 points per game on 460.6 yards per game.  That is an extremely low 11.6 yards per point.  An optimist would say that the Tide have been workmanlike, cashing in on opportunities, turnovers, and performing well in the redzone, while a pessimist would be quick to point out that the Tide will eventually score less points at some point this season.

Whether or not that recession occurs this week is up for debate.  Regardless, Matt Simms and the Vols should have trouble in Tuscaloosa.  Alabama rolls as well. 

1. LSU

LSU finds itself atop the inaugural BCS rankings, and it's with good reason.  They've beaten Oregon at a neutral site, Florida in Death Valley, and traveled to Starkville and Morgantown, and escaped with wins.

Along the way, they've given up only 11.7 points per game, scored 38.4 a game, and turned the ball over three times.  Not three times a game...three times all season. (They've forced 16, and as a result, have the largest turnover margin in the nation at 13).

This thanks in large part to their approach and gameplan.  People may argue that Jarret Lee isn't the greatest QB in the nation.  I'll point out that he has completed 61.4 percent of his passes, and has a 10-1 TD-INT ratio. 

People may argue they don't have any flash on offense.  I will say that Reuben Randle returning is a big boost, he has 27 catches for 522 yards after the opening game.  Also, Spencer Ware and Michael Ford provide a nice complement to each other.  The two have combined for 871 yards on 195 carries, a 4.47 average.  Overall, the Tigers average 46 rushes a game, and just 21 passes. 

LSU has opened as 22.5 point favorites over the defending champs this week.  Whether or not the cover is debatable, whether or not they win isn't.  LSU rolls as well.