BCS Standings 2011: Predicting How Far Michigan Will Fall After MSU Loss

The Michigan Wolverines were sitting pretty coming into today's game against their hated, in-state rival, Michigan State. They were 6-0, ranked just outside of the Top 10 and only had one close game—a 35-31 thriller against Notre Dame.

Incidentally, Notre Dame was also the team that obliterated No. 23 Michigan State 31-13 about a month ago. Throw into that mix the improved play of the Wolverines defense this year, and there were ample reasons to believe Michigan might just come out of East Lansing with a perfect record.

Yeah, that didn't happen.

The Spartans ruined the Wolverines' perfect run to the tune of 28-14 and put Michigan a half-step behind in the division and conference title races.

What about the polls? Tomorrow (Sunday), the first BCS standings of the 2011 will be revealed. Obviously, Michigan won't be at the top of the heap. They won't be as high as they were in the AP and coaches' polls coming into this week.

But how far will they fall?

For starters, it has to be remembered that the AP Poll—the most often used in early-season rankings—has no bearing on the BCS standings. The Coaches' Poll however, does. It is still part of the data that goes into the formula that figures the standings.

In the Coaches' Poll, Michigan entered the week at No. 10. Even though that's only one position ahead of where they were in the AP poll, that helps a little.

Second, Michigan State was a ranked team when they met and will obviously gain in ground thanks to this victory. That boosts Michigan's strength of schedule ever so slightly, which is far better than losing to an unranked opponent.

Lastly, before we can predict where Michigan will land, we have to gauge (guess) who below them will also lose—dampening the landing a little.

As I write this, No. 12 Georgia Tech is struggling with unranked Virginia. Unless the Yellow Jackets turn out a huge second half and blow this game away, they won't gain a lot of love in the polls (and thus the standings.)

No. 16 Illinois (No. 15 in Coaches' Poll) is losing to Ohio State 17-0. Unless they stage a second-half turnaround, they'll drop in the standings and leave one fewer team below Michigan that could leapfrog them.

No. 25 (Coaches') Penn State barely escaped Purdue and won't gain any particular respect in the standings. No. 20 Baylor lost big to Texas A&M and will likely fall out of the standings altogether.

Should No. 6 Oklahoma State end up defeating No. 22 Texas, that's yet one more team that won't be moving up the charts, pushing Michigan down.

Houston is idle this week, so it would be unthinkable that they would rise too high.

That alone means that Michigan could escape having dropped no more than five spots. Add to that the fact that some of the teams below them will have (or could yet) lost to teams that weren't ranked, and it could buffer the Wolverines' fall even further.

We could discuss the strength of schedule, but the only team below Michigan that I feel absolutely comfortable saying has not faced anyone would be Houston. The rest are still largely arguable, though that will shake out as time goes on.

It's entirely possible that Michigan will drop no more than four positions simply because no one below them has really stepped up and looked that great, or are rated too far below Michigan to leapfrog them on the back of just one performance.

Of course, late game surges by a few teams that are still in action could change this prediction slightly.

Should Texas win, Georgia Tech win convincingly, Illinois come back to turn away the Buckeyes, or should a couple of the teams yet to play really put up incredible numbers, then we could expect Michigan to drop as many as seven or eight positions.

Don't count on all of that happening though. Michigan lost a lot by dropping to the Spartans, but this game will likely benefit Michigan State more than it will hurt Michigan.

Look for the Wolverines to enter the BCS standings somewhere around No. 15 or 16. It wasn't that bad a loss, it happened to a team that is arguably better than where they were ranked and others below them are having mediocre performances of their own.

Michigan will be fine.