New England Patriots: 7 Keys to Pats Week 6 Win over Dallas Cowboys

The last time these two teams squared off was in 2007, in a much-anticipated October matchup between two 5–0 teams. The Patriots went into Dallas and crushed the Cowboys 48-27 behind a career-best five touchdown passes from Tom Brady.

Expecting Dallas to take away Randy Moss, Brady spread the ball around. Wes Welker had his best receiving day up to that time and, although Dallas sacked Brady three times (once causing a fumble return for a TD), they could not get get consistent pressure because they were so spread out on defense.

Romo was 18-29 for only 186 yards.

Going into the 2007 game, pundits believed the Cowboys could keep pace with the Patriots offense, thus keeping the game close.

Going into the 2007 game, pundits believed that if the Cowboys took away Randy Moss, they could win. They also believed the Cowboys could force New England to run the football, thus limiting Brady’s possessions.

In 2007, the Patriots rushed for only 75 yards on 29 attempts, but scored their most points in 23 years.

OK, we know it’s not 2007, but how many of these same predictions have you heard this week?

New England has the league's last-ranked defense, surrenders boatloads of points and turns average QBs into fantasy darlings for a week.

At the same time, they find a way to win, primarily because of their own top-ranked offense.

The Cowboys rank first against the run, surrendering a league-low 3.13 yards per carry. Measured by yards allowed, they are second in total defense and seventh in passing defense—but they have given up almost twice as many points as the other two top defensive teams, Baltimore and Washington. And one of the main reasons for that stat are turnovers at really bad times. 

One reason the Patriots defense may do better than expected this week is because they are opportunistic, coming up with turnovers at critical times (witness the San Diego game in Week 2).

So, New England, play like it’s 2007. Here are seven ways to do that.

7. Pats Wide Receivers Must Have Their Best Game

Fantasy experts have called Chad Ochocinco “waiver-wire fodder”, and Deion Branch has been inconsistent at best.

In that 2007 game, the Cowboys succeeded in taking away Randy Moss, but that left openings elsewhere for Brady to exploit. So, who was the top Patriots receiver that day? 

Donté Stallworth, with 136 yards and a TD.

This time, expect the Cowboys to try to take away Wes Welker. The return of slot cornerback Orlando Scandrick from a high-ankle sprain, gives Rob Ryan hope that Welker can be held down one-on-one, but that’s not going to happen. The overrated Scandrick will need help.

With the secondary focus being on New England’s dynamic tight end duo of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, New England’s wideouts should see a lot of single coverage.

Dallas will dare Deion and Ocho to win the game. Time for them to step up and do it.

6. Shut Down the Dallas Running Game

Expect the Cowboys to try to establish the run early, trying to reduce the number of times Brady gets the ball. Dallas hopes the explosive Felix Jones can get it going after the bye gave him an extra week for his shoulder to heal. With DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice also available, Coach Jason Garrett has three strong weapons out of the backfield. Knowing New England’s defensive strength is up the middle (e.g. Vince Wilfork and Albert Haynesworth), expect the Cowboys to go wide with screen and flat passes to the backs.

Although he has only averaged about 60 yards per game so far, Jones has the ability to gash a defense for big yardage, especially as a receiver out of the backfield. In addition to his 241 rushing yards, Jones has 119 yards after the catch on his 12 receptions.

To win, the Patriots must stop the run and put the game in Romo’s hands, as counterintuitive as that may sound (See “big plays” below.) That should be doable, since Dallas has not run the ball particularly well this year. In fact, only two teams have a lower average rushing yards per game than the Cowboys’ 86.8. 

5. Frustrate Rob Ryan's Defensive Scheme Early and Often

The last time the Patriots scored fewer than 30 points in a regular season game was in their 2010 loss to Cleveland, 34-14. Rob Ryan, the architect of that defeat, is now the Cowboys' defensive coordinator. 

In that Cleveland game, Ryan had an extra week to prepare for Tom Brady and the Patriots—just as he has this week, with Dallas coming off its bye. Ryan’s defense confused New England’s offensive line and limited Tom Brady to only 224 yards on 19-of-36 passing. They also stuffed the run, forcing two fumbles and allowing only 68 rushing yards.

You also can be sure Rob has updated information from his twin brother Rex, whose Jets lost to New England last week. Expect Rob to do everything possible to make Brady hand off the football, the same way the Jets did last week. The difference is that Dallas comes into this game with the league’s best defense against the run (only 61.8 rushing yards per game allowed).

Another way to force New England to keep the ball on the ground is by playing with passing personnel, so expect to see Ryan play a lot of nickel defense, even on first down.

One good way to dictate to the defense would be for Brady to go to the hurry-up offense starting from the first snap of the game, and stay with it until Dallas is forced to adjust.

Coach Bill Belichick and Brady have both described the Dallas defense as the fastest the Patriots have seen so far, so it will be important to use that speed against them with draws, screens and misdirection plays.

In the 2007 matchup, New England led 14-0 before Dallas made its initial first down, so Romo was playing catchup the whole game. That's the way to mess up a defensive scheme.

4. Don't Give Up Big Plays to Dallas Receivers

Statistically, the Patriots are last in the NFL in pass defense, giving up an average of 327 yards per game. Of greater concern is the fact that they have given up a whopping 23 plays of 20-plus yards. Don’t be misled by the fact that only five of those big plays came in the last two games; the opposing QBs were Jason Campbell and Mark Sanchez, neither of whom has the receivers or the deep passing chops of Tony Romo.

The Cowboys' biggest receiving threat so far has been All-Pro tight end Jason Witten, who has 27 receptions for 366 yards and a score.

While the Patriots have given up more receptions and receiving yards to opposing wide receivers than any team in the NFL, they have done a pretty good job containing tight ends (tied for fifth best).

Bill Belichick is known for taking away one thing an opponent does best. In this case, it will be to control Witten. The script will be similar to the San Diego game, in which the Patriots double-teamed Antonio Gates and held the great Chargers TE without a single catch.

That forced Philip Rivers to throw more to his wide receivers and, while San Diego racked up a lot of passing yards, they also gave up two interceptions and two costly fumbles.

Assuming this is the game plan, New England should be worried about the play of cornerback Devin McCourty, who seems to have regressed after a good rookie season. Opposing QBs are going after him, and he’s been getting beaten right at the line, which puts him in a chase position.

The Cowboys' top wide receiver, Miles Austin, has been out for two weeks, and the exciting Dez Bryant has been slowed by a deep thigh bruise. Even so, Dallas still averaged 331 yards passing in its first four games, third best in the NFL. Much of that yardage has gone to All-Pro tight end Jason Witten (27 receptions, 366 yards, one TD). The unexpected production of recent pickup Laurent Robinson (seven catches for 116 yards against the Lions) has been a real bonus. Add in the receptions by Felix Jones out of the backfield and Dallas has one of the strongest group of pass-catchers in the NFL.

All reports say that Austin and Bryant are raring to go after the extra week of rest, so the Patriots have their work cut out for them. To win this battle, McCourty and his mates must get solid jams at the line of scrimmage, and New England must hope they get some turnovers as they did in the Chargers game. On the other hand, if they don't jam Austin and Bryant off the snap, they will be in for a very long day.

3. Control Outside Linebacker DeMarcus Ware

Everyone in the NFL knows that the best way to slow down New England's passing game is to put constant pressure on Tom Brady. Unfortunately, most teams do not have the disruptive pass-rushers who can bring that kind of heat.

Dallas does.

DeMarcus Ware.

Ware is one of the game's premier sack artists, and even Bill Belichick has called him the best pass-rushing linebacker since Lawrence Taylor. Over the past six seasons he has registered 80 sacks, the most in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, in four games in 2011 Ware has had 25 solo QB disruptions (five sacks, three hits, and 17 pressures) in only 138 pass-rushing plays.

Anthony Spencer (13 tackles, three sacks this year) is a load from the other side as well.

The outcome of this game will probably depend on how well New England’s offensive tackles and TE block these linebackers.

To slow down the pass-rush, the Patriots must account for Ware on every play. As a linebacker, he moves around. Identify him and be ready.

It’s also important for the New England receivers to get open quickly, and be ready for faster-than-usual releases by Brady. Employing the hurry-up offense early and often may also help put the Dallas defense back on its heels.

Spencer has also shown a tendency to be burned by draws and delays from the shotgun, so mixing in runs and screens on passing downs may also help.

Once again, harken back to that 2007 game. DeMarcus Ware led the team with 10 tackles and a sack, but Brady still burned the spread-out Cowboys defense for 388 yards and five TDs.

2. Put Tony Romo in Situations That Bring out “Bad Tony”

The big story in Dallas this year has been the maddening inconsistency of the Cowboys QB. Despite fancy fantasy numbers (1,273 passing yards, seven TDs) Romo snatched two defeats from the jaws of victory with his fourth quarter meltdowns in the Jets and Lions games. 

A three-time Pro Bowler, Romo is an accurate passer, even when forced outside the pocket. He also usually bounces back after a bad game, and after the extra week to stew on his late-game gaffes against Detroit, he will come out with something to prove.

Also expect Jason Garrett to try to dial him back a bit and rely on the running game more. This could help reduce Romo’s tendency to force balls into coverage in an attempt to make a play.

To win, New England’s defense must rattle him into making mistakes. Past history has shown that once the Romo mistakes start, they tend to snowball. 

Will this be the week that the Patriots' non-existent pass-rush shows up? The Cowboys are starting two rookie offensive linemen (left guard Bill Nagy and right tackle Tyron Smith), and center Phil Costa is inexperienced as well.

Other teams have had success in getting pressure on Romo, who has been sacked seven times so far this year. He has played gutsily since taking the shot in the San Francisco game that broke a rib, but the flak jacket he is still wearing is a reminder about what pressure can do.

However, the best way to put Romo under pressure is to score early and continue to score, forcing Dallas to abandon the run and keep Romo in passing situations.

1. Win the Turnover Battle

Winning the turnover battle is almost a cliché as a key to victory, but in this game the Patriots must force Cowboys turnovers (and limit their own) in order to come away with the win.

Make no mistake: Dallas has a really good defense, and it's going to require some turnovers by the Dallas offense (read: Tony Romo) to ensure victory.

So far, the Patriots are one of only three NFL teams (Bills, Lions) not to lose a fumble. While Tom Brady has surrendered six picks, four of those came in the Buffalo game—and to be fair, several of his interceptions have been caused by balls that should have been caught by his receivers.

While Dallas fans point to the fact that Romo has only one more pick than Brady, it can be argued that Tony’s were of the more back-breaking variety.

In addition to the seven interceptions, Dallas has lost three fumbles (two by Romo). The Cowboys turnover ratio is minus-4, while the Patriots are a plus-3.

Of the 101 points Dallas has allowed this season, 37 have come in the fourth quarter, and many of those came as a direct result of turnovers.

New England must keep this trend going.