Big East Expansion: Boise State Football Anything but BCS Lock in Bigger League

If the Big East says "Jump!" to Boise State, which the league likely will (if only in football), there's no guarantee that the Broncos will necessarily respond with "How high?" much less reach the BCS with an automatic berth.

Don't get me wrong, Boise State is as deserving as any football team without a definite in to a big-time bowl invitation to join a Big Six conference. The Broncos have won 66 of their 71 games since Chris Petersen took over for Dan Hawkins as head coach, with Heisman Trophy contender Kellen Moore leading the team to its last 43 victories.

Chances are, this year's senior-laden squad will give Petersen a third BCS bowl trip to add to his already sterling resume.

If things work out in the Broncos' favor, they may even end up as the first non-AQ school to play for the BCS National Championship.

But Boise's projected success in the Big East, if it does, in fact, decide to take the plunge, has nothing to do with triumphs of the past, but rather with prospects for the future.

That's where things get a bit murky for the Smurf Turfers. This year's squad features 18 seniors starting on offense and defense—a fantastic formula for winning now, but not exactly one that bodes well for the future.

No part of this Boise State team will be left unscathed by graduations, though the heaviest and most devastating losses figure to come in the trenches, where Petersen will have to replace the entirety of both lines.

And then there's Moore, who, barring a complete collapse by his team, will leave Boise State as the winningest quarterback in the history of NCAA Division I football. Quarterbacks of Moore's caliber, who fit so seamlessly into a given system, don't come along every day, especially not for a small school program like Boise State, in Boise, Idaho.

Once Moore is gone, Petersen will likely turn to either junior-to-be Joe Southwick, who has 39 pass attempts in his collegiate career, or sophomores-to-be Jimmy Laughrea and Grant Hedrick, who have just one between them.

Then again, there was similar concern in Boise when Jared Zabransky finished up his eligibility after leading the Broncos to that thrilling overtime win against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. All Petersen did was fill Zabransky's big shoes with the feet of an untested redshirt freshman who's since become the most decorated football player in school history.

The big difference, of course, is that Moore's successor won't necessarily have the luxury of building up his chops against far inferior competition.

If the Broncos join the Big East in 2012, they'll have to reload against the likes of West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida, along with Michigan State and BYU as out-of-conference opponents.

Okay, so maybe that's not the most difficult task for a seasoned program like Boise State's, but it certainly won't be easy by any stretch of the imagination.

So, if this latest semi-seismic shift goes through and the Broncos do, in fact, get their shot at playing with the big boys, let's not jump too quickly to crown them kings of the newly-expanded Big East.

Instead, we'll just have to wait and see how they hold up and handle the attrition with a brand new team in a brand new conference, playing a more balanced schedule and comparable competition on a weekly basis.