5 Teams Outside the CFB Top 25 Capable of a 2026 Playoff Run

The most straightforward way to explain expectations for college football teams is their placement in the preseason AP Top 25.

If the consensus belief is a program will be a national contender, it'll be reflected in the rankings. If not, well, that's also clear to see. The hope for teams in the latter category is they'll prove the voters wrong.

Thanks to the College Football Playoff now featuring 12 teams, there is plenty of opportunity for that, too.

Look, history says we have a really good idea of the 2026 season's champion. Since the 2000 campaign, 21 of the 26 winners were preseason top-10 teams. Indiana was an outlier last year, yet the Hoosiers still opened at No. 20.

Orchestrating a run to the CFP, though, is a plausible ceiling for this group.

Boise State Broncos

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Maddux Madsen

Opening the season at Oregon is a double-edged sword for Boise State.

Even without a win against the nation's No. 2 team—the expectation, to be sure—a competitive loss would be helpful in the perception department. On the other hand, a lopsided result may damage the Broncos.

But, hey, that's the nature of the sport. And there's certainly value in playing the hardest team on your schedule right away.

The remade Pac-12, while not easy, isn't exactly a gauntlet, either. Boise returns a veteran at quarterback with Maddux Madsen, while the backfield is stacked and defense is always reliable.

Early lessons could fuel a Playoff surge for the boys from the blue turf.

Clemson Tigers

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Christopher Vizzina

Cheating? Sort of.

No team outside the AP Top 25 totaled more voting points than Clemson, which essentially landed at 26th in the initial poll. Nevertheless, the Tigers are set to kick off the season unranked.

Clemson's opener is at LSU, but that's not a decisive game. The more impactful moment for Dabo Swinney's team awaits in Week 5 when No. 7 Miami comes to town. If the Tigers capitalize on their home-field advantage and beat the 'Canes, Clemson's path to the ACC Championship Game is very apparent.

At that point, it does not matter if Clemson—which is turning the offense over to Christopher Vizzina in 2026—is among the nation's best teams. Win the ACC, and the Tigers are in the Playoff.

Swinney has taken a fair share of criticism lately, but he's still a two-time national champion. He'd have Clemson ready for the bright lights of the CFP.

Kansas State Wildcats

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Avery Johnson

Clemson ever-so-narrowly missed the preseason AP Top 25. Kansas State, meanwhile, did not receive a single vote.

Perhaps that's the correct view. After all, the Wildcats lost a bunch of production from a group that mustered a 6-6 record last year. Bullish as you might be on new coach Collin Klein—and place me in that camp—this is a rebuild.

But.

Klein, the first coordinator of Avery Johnson's time at K-State, should be able to unlock a more consistent version of the dual-threat QB. Kansas State's schedule does not include Texas Tech, BYU or Utah, and a few other Big 12 notables—Houston, Oklahoma State and Arizona—each travel to Manhattan.

I am, metaphorically, not betting on Kansas State this season. Still, the dream of a CFP ascent is not too difficult to conceive.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

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Eric Morris

When your roster is hovering around 80 new players compared to last season's squad, that is an unpredictable team.

Simultaneously, there's a nice infusion of talent at Oklahoma State. Eric Morris brought more than a dozen players from North Texas—including star players such as quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and wide receiver Wyatt Young—and added many power-conference transfers.

The Cowboys are unpredictable, but not entirely unproven.

The schedule is much tougher than K-State's, for example, with the Pokes hosting Oregon and Texas Tech. OSU travels to Houston, Kansas State and Arizona State, as well. Simply attaining bowl eligibility, in hindsight, might be a win.

Before the year begins, however, this overhauled Oklahoma State roster is plenty intriguing as a CFP sleeper.

TCU Horned Frogs

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During both the 2024 and 2025 seasons, TCU posted an 8-4 record and closed the campaigns with a bowl victory. That's a quality two-year run on paper.

The problem, though, is the Horned Frogs never really cracked the national consciousness. They stumbled out to a 3-3 start in 2024 prior to a hot finish, then a midseason lull stung TCU last season.

It wouldn't be stunning to see this roster take the next jump forward.

Yes, much of that optimism is reliant on Harvard transfer Jaden Craig to boost the offense. However, the Horned Frogs have a good bit of experience, and the early-season schedule is favorable. They could announce themselves a real Big 12 threat with a home victory over BYU to open October, too.

TCU already wasn't far from contending. If the Horned Frogs are truly improved this season, they'll be capable of crashing the CFP.