49ers vs. Lions: Keys Obstacles Facing the San Francisco Against Detroit

Fans of the San Francisco 49ers are riding high after a blowout 48-3 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, and deservedly so.  The 49ers have looked great in two of their wins (Bucs and Seahawks) and they found a way to win in their other two victories, which is something many 49er teams since 2002 simply have not done. 

Add to these factors the opportunity to play in one of the marquee matchups this weekend against the Detroit Lions, and 49er fans have cause for celebration.  If anyone had predicted in August that these two teams would be a combined 9-1, they would have been immediately locked away and spoon-fed Prozac for the rest of the season.

However, realistic 49er fans are puckering a little bit about Sunday's matchup.  The Lions have been very good this year en route to their 5-0 record and have talent on both sides of the ball.  Unlike the Buccaneers, the Lions do not have to travel after a big Monday Night Football game against the Bears. 

The 49ers can win this one, but there are some big mountains to climb in order to do so.

Obstacle 1: 1 p.m. ET Start

The game Week 3 against the Cincinnati Bengals demonstrated the difficulty for West Coast teams playing the early game in the Eastern time zone.  The statistics back it up, too, with the 49ers having played 35 1 p.m. ET starts since 2005 and only winning eight of them (which includes this year), according to ESPN’s Mike Sando. 

In fact, in 2011 the 49ers have more 1 p.m. ET starts (five) than the New England Patriots (four).  The 49ers are going to have to find a way to shake the cobwebs early and stay in the game in the first half.  If they play the same way in the first half against the Lions like they did in Cincinnati or Philadelphia, this one could get ugly in a hurry.

Obstacle 2: Alex Smith Needs to Continue Improvement

Alex Smith (finally) found a way to keep the offense on the field on third down in the Week 5 win against the Buccaneers and his efficient line shows it: 11/19, 170 yards and a rating of 127.2. 

Smith is probably never going to put up spectacular numbers, but he may not have to with the way this team is winning.  However, in this game against the Lions he must make the 3rd-and-medium throws consistently for the 49ers to have a chance to win. 

If Smith and the offense can’t stay on the field they will not be able to keep the defense rested enough to stop the Lions.

Obstacle 3: The Run Defense

This is an issue on both sides of the ball, but more on that later. 

The 49ers’ run defense has been excellent this year, giving up only an average of 76.4 yards per game.  In addition, the Lions run offense has been inconsistent this year with an average of 95.8 yards per game.  That stat for the Lions may be inflated thanks to a few big runs by Jahvid Best, and if the 49ers can slow down the likes of LeGarrette Blount and LeSean McCoy, they can stop Best. 

If the 49ers can make the Lions one-dimensional on offense it will give them a better chance to win.  However, making the Lions a passing team with the tandem of Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson does not seem like fun, but if the Lions gain yards both rushing and passing, the 49ers have no chance to win.

Obstacle 4: Power Running Game

The running game for the 49ers has been very good this year with a respectable average of 117.2 yards per game.  This game, though, may test how stubborn Jim Harbaugh is with his commitment to the running game.  Harbaugh is committed to the run, which is good, but the Lions dress and play nine defensive linemen, making it very difficult to wear them down over the course of the game. 

The defensive ends of the Lions tend to split out very wide, which makes them susceptible to quick power plays and off-guard isolation plays, so the 49ers have a good chance for success.  However, if the line does not do its job and give Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter running room, I don’t think Smith has improved enough yet to put the team on his shoulders and win a big road test like this. 

Furthermore, Harbaugh might have to get creative with his play calling because the 49ers cannot get in a hole in the second or third quarters for the sake of establishing the running game.  Smith has shown he is good in the check-down passing game, so that might be a strategy that Harbaugh uses to help move the chains and eat up clock.

Obstacle 5: Limiting the Big Plays

The 49ers shut down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense in almost every way Week 5 and gave up virtually no big plays.  However, the Cowboys game and the Eagles game demonstrated this defense can be susceptible to long gains. 

Since they are entering a game against Johnson, this is a cause for concern because he has shown the ability to beat the double team for big gains this year.  In addition, Best had a huge run against the Bears on Monday night, which cannot happen if the 49ers are going to win. 

Realistically, Johnson is probably going to have a touchdown in this game, but the 49ers need to make sure it is on a five-yard out on 2nd-and-goal rather than a deep post from Lions’ territory.

Obstacle 6: Receiver Corps

The loss of Josh Morgan for the rest of the season will hurt the 49ers, which is a no-brainer. 

To add to the receiver woes of the 49ers, Braylon Edwards is not available until after the bye week.  Even with the signing on Wednesday of Brett Swain, the receiving corps is severely depleted because it is unreasonable to expect Swain to have much of an impact this week. 

This must be a watershed game for Michael Crabtree because Vernon Davis cannot split out wide in every passing situation and the rest of receiving corps is solid but not elite.  I don’t believe in Crabtree yet, but this game will have to change my mind in order for the 49ers to have a good opportunity to win.

Conclusion

The 49ers can win this game, but I don’t envy Coach Harbaugh in trying to come up with a game plan to beat the Lions.  The Motor City has good reason to be excited about this team because it has a potentially explosive offense and great team defense. 

To win, the 49ers will have to start well, stay in the game with good defense and make critical plays in the second half.  Is this too tall an order?  Las Vegas thinks so, putting the 49ers at a four-point underdog. 

In the end, there may be too little margin for error for the 49ers to overcome the early start time and a good Lions team.  The Lions may have a bit of a letdown after their first Monday Night Football game in years, but it might not be enough to propel San Francisco to a victory. 

Although I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the 49ers win, we will probably be talking about a close game that got away going into the bye week.