Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers: Week 6 Preview, Prediction and Analysis

Quarterback

Quick, which former first overall pick is having a better year, Matthew Stafford of the Lions or Alex Smith of the 49ers? Well, if you are inclined to believe statistics than Alex Smith is having the better season.

Prior to the start of the year this looked like a mismatch on paper.  Smith was considered a bust and many 49er fans wanted him shipped out of town.  What Jim Harbaugh has managed to do in turning this young QBs career around is nothing short of a miracle.  As of Week 5, Smith is completing a higher percentage of passes, has less interceptions and a higher QB rating than Stafford. 

The difference is that Stafford is expected to do a lot more than Smith.  He has thrown 61 more passes, 471 more yards and nearly twice as many touchdowns.

Edge: Lions – This is not nearly the mismatch some think it is.

Wide Receivers

Well, Calvin Johnson is in a slump, he only caught one touchdown last week.  Of course another week, another record for Johnson, as he has now caught more touchdowns in the first five weeks of a season than any other player in NFL history.

Nate Burleson has been nearly invisible in the last three games, but look for Stafford to try to feed him some balls this week.

The 49ers are hurting at this position, as they have lost their leading wide receiver Josh Morgan to injury.  They have signed Brett Swain to help overcome the loss.  He was cut in august by the Green Bay Packers.

Edge: Lions – With all due respect to Chris Carter, Johnson is the best wide receiver in the NFL.

Running Backs

The Lions run game finally showed up last week.  Jahvid best went off for a career high 163 yards against the Bears.  His touchdown run in the third quarter was more yards on a single carry, 88, than he had in any other game in his career.

Frank Gore is one of my favorite players in the NFL.  At 5’9'' and 217 lbs he looks more like a linebacker than a running back.  Unfortunately for NFL defenses he plays with the mindset of a linebacker.  He runs with anger and is more than happy to run over defensive players who try to get in his way.  His style has cost him, though, as he has been hit by injuries throughout his career.

Edge: 49ers – Best may have had a great game, but Gore has been doing it for a lot longer.

Tight Ends

This is one area where the Lions usually have the edge with Brandon Pettigrew, but Vernon Davis might be the most athletic tight end in the game today.  He leads the team with 22 receptions and three touchdowns.  He is a force to be reckoned with.

Pettigrew has been Stafford’s safety blanket all year and is second on the team with 26 receptions.

Edge: 49ers – Pettigrew is really good, but Davis is a little better. 

Offensive Line

The Lions offensive line had a pretty good day against the Bears last week, but overall run blocking remains an issue.  One has to wonder if last week was an aberration or if all the sudden they have found magic in a bottle.

The 49ers O-line had a rough start to the season, especially at right guard, but has improved as the season has gone on.  That said, I believe Anthony Davis is going to have a rough time with Cliff Avril and Willie Young.

Edge: 49ers – I think the Lions’ offensive line will come back to earth this week.   

Defensive Line

What more can I say that hasn’t already been said about the Lions’ defensive line.  They rotate nine guys and aren’t afraid to plug in any of them in any situation.  Proof of that is that none of the defensive ends played more than 40 percent of the snaps against the Bears.

Of course it all starts with the beast in the middle Ndamukong Suh, who had another great game against the Bears.  As far as Suh was concerned, he was in on over 80 percent of snaps last week.

Justin Smith is coming off of a Pro Bowl season and hasn’t slowed down one bit. He already has three sacks after registering 8.5 last year. 

Aldon Smith comes in on nickel situations and will be a tough matchup for Jeff Backus.

Edge: Lions – Just ask Jay Cutler

Linebackers

Justin Durant has been missed a couple of games with a concussion but as proof of how much better the Lions’ depth is this year, this unit has not missed a beat, as Bobby Carpenter has filled in quite well.

In a much welcome site, DeAndre Levy had the best game of his career with 13 tackles.

When discussing the 49ers linebackers, the conversation starts and stops with Patrick Willis.  That is not a slight to the rest of the linebacking unit, it is simply because Willis is the best in the game.  If the 2007 draft was held today, it would be a tossup between Willis and Calvin Johnson for first overall. 

Edge: 49ers – 31 other teams would love to have Willis if they could. 

Secondary

Eric Wright has been a pleasant surprise for the Lions this year.  After a tough year in Cleveland last year, he has come on and not only has become Detroit’s best cover corner, his support in the run game has been exceptional.

Carlos Rogers ranks as one of the best offseason signings.  He has been exceptional this year.  He already has three interceptions.  You have to figure he will be matched up with Calvin Johnson.

Edge: Lions – The 49ers have the best player, but the Lions have the better overall unit.

Special Teams

The 49ers have a pretty good kicker in David Ackers, but the Lions feature one of the game’s best in Jason Hanson.  Hanson has not missed a kick so far this year.  In fact he has not missed a kick in a full calendar year; his last miss came on October 3^rd of 2010.  To be fair, he was injured in the latter part of last year. 

Ted Ginn Jr. is a threat to take it to the house on kickoff and punt returns. 

Edge: 49ers – The Lions’ return unit did a good job against Devin Hester, they will have to be just as sharp against Ginn.

Prediction

Both teams are experiencing surprising success.  They are a combine 9-1 on the year. 

If the 49ers are going to win they will have to rely heavily on Vernon Davis. 

For the Lions to win they will have to protect Matthew Stafford, the 49ers defense is one of the most physical in the league.

The crowd at Ford Field will be a big factor just as it was on Monday night.

This game will be close, but Stafford to Johnson will prove too much for the Niners to overcome.

Pick: Lions 24, 49ers 17