NFL Picks Week 6: Why Baltimore Ravens Will Cover Big Spread vs. Houston Texans

When you take a look at the spreads for Week 6 of the 2011 season, there is no spread more troubling than the Baltimore Ravens being favored to beat the Houston Texans by eight points.

This is not to say the Ravens aren't a good team, of course. They are, but so are the Texans. They're 3-2 on the season and can beat you in a variety of ways. Surely they don't deserve to be such a big underdog.

They probably don't, but careful consideration has led me to believe the eight-point spread is actually quite valid. In other words, the Ravens are that good.

Above all, you have to consider Baltimore's defense, which was last seen limiting the New York Jets to 150 total yards. In the process, the Ravens got to Mark Sanchez for three—count 'em—three defensive touchdowns. That's not par for the course, but it's not an accident, either.

This is because, as it usually is, Baltimore's defense is elite. The Ravens rank ninth in the league against the pass and second in the league against the run. They're also leading the league in points allowed.

The scary part is that this defense will be going up against a Texans offense that has seen better days. Andre Johnson's return could still be a couple of weeks out, and Arian Foster's big game in Week 4 was followed by a tough time against the Raiders. He did end up with decent numbers, but the Raiders did a fine job of keeping him in check.

We can rest assured the Texans are going to try to establish Foster early and often against the Ravens. When they do, they'll be asking for trouble as the Ravens are allowing just 3.2 yards per rush this season.

If Foster struggles, it will be up to Matt Schaub to pick up the pieces. He'll be solid, but he's going to miss having Johnson to throw to. He'll instead have to rely on his tight ends, and it's certainly worth noting the Ravens have given up just nine receptions to tight ends all season.

Defensively, it's going to be interesting to see how the Texans play without Mario Williams. When he had to leave against the Raiders, the life seemed to go out of the defense. Whether that life can come back remains to be seen.

Even if that life does come back, the Texans are going to have their work cut out for them against the Ravens offense. Ray Rice is as productive a running back as there is in the NFL, and he is going to do his usual thing against the Texans. So will Joe Flacco.

Ultimately, what concerns me about the Texans is that I'm just not sure how good they really are. They may be 3-2, but they don't seem to be an upper-crust team just yet.

Which is to say that they're still the Texans.

Ravens 31, Texans 21