Red Sox Free-Agent Targets This Offseason

For those that feel like the baseball season never ends, there's a good reason for that. 

They're somewhat correct. 

With Spring Training starting in Mid-February and the regular and postseasons not concluding until early November, baseball can dominate sports' headlines for almost the entire calendar year. Don't forget the free-agent market though. 

That's the period of time between the end of the World Series and the beginning of Spring Training when the bulk of baseball's high-profile free-agents either switch teams or remain with their existing one. 

With the Red Sox still reeling from a historically bad regular season implosion, it's very likely that the Red Sox will once again be major players in the free-agent market. There's a very high-profile free-agent class on tap for this winter and who the Red Sox pursue and ultimately sign will have an impact on not just the 2012 season, but several seasons down the road as well. 

Albert Pujols

Put simply, he will set the market. There will be a lot of massive contracts signed in the upcoming offseason but barring a total shock the biggest one will ultimately be signed by one Albert Pujols. Arguably not just the top offensive free agent but the top offensive player in all of baseball, Pujols seems likely to at least test the waters and see just how much money a 31-year-old player with a career .328 average, over 400 home runs and a career OPS of 1.037 can fetch in today's market. 

The Boston Red Sox might talk to Pujols, they might even entertain making him an offer. After all, he's truly a dominant offensive player. That being said, Pujols is rumored to be looking for a deal in excess of eight years and 200 million dollars. The Red Sox would be an odd candidate to offer up that type of deal having just inked another top first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to a seven-year 154 million dollar deal. 

Sure maybe Pujols could become a DH but were that to happen, the Red Sox would use that in the contract negotiations to lower their offer. Pujols is a very good first baseman and doesn't need to settle for a designated hitter role at this point in his career. He's not likely to be seriously pursued by Boston. 

C.C. Sabathia

This is where it could get very interesting. It's no secret that the New York Yankees are the Boston Red Sox's biggest rival. These teams have a lot in common and among the myriad of similarities is a shortage of starting pitching. 

The Yankees are short on arms even though they've had Sabathia as their No. 1 starter for the past three seasons. The Red Sox through a combination of bad signings, injuries and under-performance, also need at least one starting pitcher. 

C.C. Sabathia and his agent have to know this is the case and with that in mind there's a fairly good chance he will opt out of his current Yankee contract and delve back into the free-agent market. 

Sabathia might not be able to increase his current 23 million dollars a year salary by that much, but he will be able to extend the number of years on it. His has four years remaining on his current Yankee deal. Should Sabathia choose to opt out of that deal, he'd likely be looking for a similar yearly haul but for six or seven years. 

A contract of that size and scope especially for a pitcher immediately limits the pool of teams Sabathia could realistically hope to hear from. The Boston Red Sox are in that small group though, along with the Yankees, Angels, White Sox, Cubs and perhaps the Dodgers pending their ownership situation. 

Sabathia's presence in the market would likely result in the heaviest offseason bidding war between the Red Sox and Yankees since the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes in the winter of 2008-2009. That war was won by the Yankees. This one would seem to favor New York as well with Sabathia having not shown any real desire to exit New York to this point. 

It seems almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which the Yankees were to lose Sabathia due to being outbid. The Yankees are woefully short on starting pitchers and Sabathia is at this point the most critical player on the entire Yankee roster. Then again the Yankees did lose the Cliff Lee bidding war last season. They lost that not because of money but because Lee didn't want to pitch in New York. 

Sabathia by most accounts enjoys pitching in The Big Apple. That doesn't mean that he won't leave but it does mean it's going to take some pretty remarkable circumstances for that to transpire. Sabathia will be priority No. 1 for the Red Sox. Can they land him? 

Prince Fielder

If Prince Fielder were a free agent in almost any other season he'd be the No. 1 hitter on the market. This year with the aforementioned Albert Pujols likely to be a free agent, Fielder drops to No. 2. He's a pretty attractive No. 2 though. 

Fielder who will be only 27 on opening day 2012 is a tremendous power hitter. He hit 50 home runs back in 2007. In 2009 he drove in 141 runs. This past season he had 38 home runs and 120 runs batted in while tying his career high in batting average at .299. 

At first glance Fielder could be dismissed by Red Sox fans as a non-factor. After all just like Pujols, he plays first base, so with Adrian Gonzalez entrenched there, where would Fielder fit on the Boston roster? There are a few mitigating factors though that might just push Fielder into Boston's reach. 

Fielder is not exactly a fitness freak. He's in better physical shape than he appears but he seems destined to become a DH as his career progresses. The Boston Red Sox may have an opening at DH should they choose to not re-sign fan favorite David Ortiz. 

If the Red Sox were to part with Ortiz they'd need to bring in a big name to placate the legions of fans who would cringe at the thought of one of Boston's all-time most beloved sluggers leaving town. Bringing in Fielder would likely make him an absurdly paid DH but Fielder, unlike Ortiz, can play solid first base. That means added flexibility for a manager with regards to pinch running and pinch hitting over the course of a game. 

The other factor is the agent. His name is Scott Boras and he also represents another player whose name is Jacoby Ellsbury. There is no player on the current Red Sox roster who's eventual free-agency stands to create more drama than Ellsbury. Jacoby is coming off a monster season in which he's likely to finish among the top five for American League MVP voting.

The Sox having good negotiations with Boras in regards to Fielder might set the stage for an Ellsbury extension. That may even trump any concerns the Sox might have regarding overpaying a designated hitter. 

C.J. Wilson

If there is anyone that would like to see C.C. Sabathia not opt out of his current contract and remain in New York more than the Yankees and their fans, it's C.J. Wilson and his agent. 

That's because if C.C. isn't on the market then Wilson becomes the No. 1 starting pitching free-agent prize. Unlike Sabathia,  Wilson may or may not be a bona-fide "ace." He's still a very good pitcher though. 

Pitching in a stadium and climate that seems to almost create extra base hits out of thin air, Wilson followed up an unexpectedly good 2010 season with an equally surprising and even better 2011 one. Finishing 2011 with a 16-7 record an earned run average of 2.94 and 206 strikeouts, Wilson appears to be a classic late bloomer and his timing couldn't have been better. 

Still only 30 years old, Wilson was not even a starter until 2010. He came out of the bullpen and due to that Wilson, in spite of his age, has thrown very few innings over the course of his career. Through seven seasons he has only 708 innings pitched. Thus the 30-year-old pitcher doesn't come with the wear and tear normally associated with a starter of his age. 

Wilson has proven that he can pitch in stadiums tailored for offense. He's got postseason experience, he's got pennant race experience and this past season he made the jump from being a No. 2 pitcher in the shadow of ace Cliff Lee to a No. 1 starter with shocking good results. 

Wilson will get a contract in excess of 100 million dollars. He's not nearly the sure thing that Sabathia is but he's also a very attractive free agent for any team needing starting pitching. The Red Sox will be in hot pursuit, so will the Yankees. It's going to be more than that though. His contractual demands will be lower than Sabathia's so the list of teams that can and will pursue him will be longer. 

Look for the Rangers to be very aggressive in their pursuit to retain Wilson. Also look for the White Sox, Tigers, Cubs, Angels and possibly the Mets to join the Red Sox and Yankees in an all out bidding war for Wilson's services. Wilson could also draw interest from the Washington Nationals, who could use another veteran starter to pair with young fireballer Stephen Strasburg. 

Regardless of which teams go after Wilson, the Red Sox figure to be a major factor in his eventual decision. 

Jose Reyes

No player will be a more controversial signing in the upcoming season than Jose Reyes. That's because Reyes is a bit of a risk. A dynamic player who can hit for average, steal bases in bunches and easily turn doubles into triples, Reyes can be a crucial offensive spark to whatever team he eventually ends up with.

Add in the fact that he plays shortstop; one of baseball weakest positions from an offensive production standpoint, and it would seem like a no-brainer to throw a ton of money at Jose Reyes. When one glances at the Red Sox roster and examines their shortstop situation, it would seem like common sense to open up the coffers and go all in for his services. 

There's no question that he'd be an upgrade from any shortstop on the current Red Sox roster. Marco Scutaro, Jed Lowrie, Mike Aviles and prospect Jose Iglesias all could serve as decent shortstops but not one of them is even close to Reyes in terms of overall talent.

Reyes however, has a set of question marks that make a Red Sox pursuit of him somewhat unlikely. First of all he's expected to seek money very similar to what the Red Sox spent on Carl Crawford last offseason. That's a lot of money to spend on a player whose offensive skills are already present in not one, but two players on the current Red Sox roster. Crawford had a terrible 2011 season but his overall offensive skill set is very similar to Reyes, and Jacoby Ellsbury seems to have everything that Reyes has, with more power in his swing.

In addition, Reyes has a habit of sustaining nagging injuries. He missed 36 games this past season and that shocked not one person in the New York Metropolitan area. In fact, Reyes hasn't played more than 133 games in a season since 2008. Reyes will only be 28 on Opening Day 2012, but since he's been playing in the Majors ever since he was 20, he's amassed a fairly high amount of wear and tear.

Red Sox fans and management have grown less and less tolerant of injury-prone players over the past few seasons. Players like Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, J.D. Drew, Jed Lowrie and Kevin Youklis have all been constants on the disabled list, and the Red Sox are going to be cautious about spending big money on a player who seems to have a habit of missing large blocks of games annually.

Could Jose Reyes come to Boston? Yes it could happen, but it's not likely unless the contract is shorter than most expect him to receive. It would also probably need to contain incentive clauses for games played as well.

The New York Mets seem prepared to go all out to retain Reyes who has been a mainstay in their clubhouse for his entire career. The Mets don't have much money to spend but it seems like they will spend what they can to keep him.  

Carlos Beltran

Make no mistake about it. Some team in Major League Baseball is going to ink Carlos Beltran to a decent sized contract this offseason. It just doesn't seem like that team is the Boston Red Sox.

With Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury patrolling the outfield in Boston, the Red Sox already have two high profile and in Crawford's case, high priced outfielders. In Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish, the Red Sox have two young, inexpensive and talented right field options as well. 

Last offseason, Kalish would have seemed like the natural choice to step into the soon to be vacated right field position once free agent J.D. Drew leaves town. Kalish had performed admirably when he was brought up in the midst of an injury plagued 2010 season for the Red Sox. Though primarily a center fielder, he also players the two corners and displayed some power, speed and lots of enthusiasm. 

2011 was a rough year for Kalish who sustained a shoulder injury early in the year and never got back to the majors. In his absence, Josh Reddick another prospect in the Sox organization, stepped in to fill the right field gap that was left when JD Drew suffered from a combination of poor performance and  nagging injuries. 

Reddick had a solid season before joining in the collective September slump that seemed to impact every player on the Red Sox roster not named Pedroia or Ellsbury. In spite of the lackluster finish, it's very likely that the Red Sox will allow these two young players to battle in out in spring training for the starting right fielders job in 2012. 

A veteran free agent may be brought in as an insurance policy should both young players prove to not be ready for everyday starting duties, but it would be a shock if that veteran were someone like Beltran, who will seek and likely get a three-year contract that pays him in excess of 10 million dollars year. 

In spite of his own injury-plagued career Beltran is still a productive offensive force. Last season, he hit .300 with 22 home runs and 84 runs batted in. That was accomplished while playing more than two-thirds of his games in pitcher friendly Citifield for the New York Mets.

There is one scenario in which Beltran could end up in Boston. It's the same type of circumstance outlined in the Prince Fielder summary. Beltran, like Fielder, is represented by Scott Boras. If David Ortiz were to leave town then Beltran could be a decent designated hitter option. Playing DH could negate many of the injuries that Beltran seems to sustain every year and he'd be available to play outfield in a pinch, which would allow the next Red Sox manager to rest players like Ellsbury or to make various subs and substitutions in the late innings of close games.  

Grady Sizemore

Grady Sizemore might be a free agent and he might not. The Indians have a  team option on his current contract. Back in 2008, it would have seemed like a foregone conclusion that for $8.5 million dollars the Indians would gladly pick up Sizemore's 2012 option and take advantage of that bargain price. 

Things change though. In Sizemore's case, injuries have turned what was once thought to be a potential Hall Of Fame career into a total question mark. Sizemore has suffered a number of both major and minor injuries and hasn't played more than 106 games since the 2008 season. He's had knee issues primarily and those issues have created some serious question marks about his ability to ever be the player he once was. 

Once he was a fairly spectacular outfielder who provided spectacular plays with regularity. He was also an offensive force who appeared to be an annual lock to exceed 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases for a long time to come. Those injures have really impacted him and now there's a very good chance that the Indians won't pick up his option. 

That would make Sizemore a free agent and one that would come with some serious risks. Sure Sizemore could be had for a decent price, but if he's hurt all the time then that price is still likely to be too high. This is the type of risk that Theo Epstein would have taken at one time, but with so many nagging injuries on the Red Sox over the past few years, Sizemore seems like an unlikely target for the Red Sox. 

The Closers

If you're a baseball team searching for a closer, then this upcoming offseason will provide a ton of choices. 

The Red Sox may or may not be one of those teams. It all starts with their decision regarding current closer Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon, who is one of baseball's top closers over the past six years, is expected to test the free-agent market. That doesn't mean that the Red Sox won't end up re-signing him and bringing him back to Boston in his familiar role. It does mean that if they don't there will be options. Fans can and will debate whether or not these options are better or worse than Papelbon. 

It's a long list but the big names are Jose Valverde, Heath Bell and Ryan Madson. All three have impressive resumes. 

Valverde is coming off one of the best seasons ever had by a closer. That's somewhat of a harbinger since it would seem nearly impossible for him to replicate this past season's success in which he saved all 49 games he was brought into save. Valverde would bring plenty of big-game experience as well as success against the hated Yankees in this season's ALDS to the Red Sox bullpen. 

His outlandish style would be unlikely to bother Red Sox fans who have grown accustomed to Papelbon's own unique quirks over the years. Valverde would likely be every bit as pricey if not more so than Papelbon. If that's the case then the only way the Red Sox would do that would be if they felt that he really was a much better option than Papelbon.

Heath Bell seems to be among the more unlikely closers to be brought in should Papelbon depart. He's older ( 34) and he has openly expressed a desire to remain in San Diego. That doesn't mean he will but it's a sign that Bell might not be all that comfortable in the pressure cooker that is Boston Red Sox baseball and its loyal following. Bell would likely be cheaper than either Papelbon or Valverde but he could be a bad fit in Boston.

Ryan Madson is in a similar circumstance as Papelbon. He already plays for a big-market team with sky high expectations. He's only been a closer for one full season though. That lack of experience may cause his price to be slightly lower than Papelbon's. It also means that Philadelphia, whose pitching was not the reason for their early playoff exit, seems likely to make an effort to retain Madson. If he were to hit the open market, he may very well be a target for the Red Sox who would place a value on his experience pitching in a market similar to Boston.