Cost Benefit Analysis: Notre Dame and Charlie Weis

Charlie Weis remains Head Coach at Notre Dame.  The Irish nation is in a frenzied uproar.  Alums and fans are threatening to stop donations not only to the athletic department but also to the University as a whole.  Given a cost-benefit analysis, Notre Dame made the best choice for the school.

First, Weis made progress.  6-6 is better than 3-9.  Granted with more inspired, disciplined play and ANY running game, the team would have been 9-3.  The problems and to some extent the solutions are glaringly obvious.  Charlie Weis could point to those as he made the case to the University to keep him.  He is smart enough to make staff adjustments and he is a tireless recruiter who will fill some of the gaps that need to be filled.  He could absolutely sell his plan for improvement.

Second, his contractual buyout must be huge.  The speculation has the figure ranging from 3 to 20+ million.  If the former was true, Notre Dame would have cut him loose.  At a low dollar amount, the BC shutout, Syracuse embarrassment, and the USC near shutout trumped any progress argument.

The Irish nation has developed multiple lists of potential coaches.  The possible successors were mostly so-called "Tier One" coaches.  The problem for Notre Dame was that the incumbent, Coach Weis, was a former "Coach of the Year" with a team trending upward and that huge buyout in lean economic times.  That made the list of acceptable replacements very, very, very short.

These "can't miss" guys are all currently employed and reportedly happy.  In every case, these elite coaches are prepping their respective teams for either a BCS Bowl game or for an NFL playoff run.  Notre Dame needed one of those guys "in the bag," in order to fire Coach Weis, pay his buyout, and pay that very expensive savior.  They elected to retain Weis.

Next year, the scenario changes.  The Irish need to win ALL the games they should win and most of the others.  They need to show up against BC and USC.  Anything less than 9-3 with no shutouts, no embarrassments and Weis is gone.  At that point, the coaching list expands because the "progress" argument is no longer a factor in any cost benefit analysis.