NFL Picks Week 5: Winners and Losers for This Week's Games

Ah, the first quarter of the season is over.  

This is the time when fans and experts across the country start to have a good feel about who are the good teams that are playoff-bound, and who will be jockeying for the top three picks in next year's draft.  Last year would be a prime example, where eight of the 10 teams that started at 3-1 made the playoffs.  This year features 11 such teams at 3-1: the Ravens, Giants, Redskins, Buccaneers, Saints, 49ers, Bills, Patriots, Texans, Titans and Chargers.  

This Sunday's upcoming games feature a hearty selection of games where just about all of these teams are in action (Ravens and Redskins are off), and will be tested in tough matchups where we will see how for real they are.  

So without further ado, here are the winners and losers of Week 5...

Game of the Week

Michael Vick and the 1-3 Philadelphia Eagles will travel to Buffalo to take on the 3-1 Bills.  Here is where we will see if Buffalo is ready to make a run at the AFC East title.  After beating their "big brother" the Patriots, the Bills came crashing back down to Earth last Sunday, by losing to the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bills have a disappointing Philadelphia Eagles team coming to town, who continue to find ways to beat themselves.  

What makes this matchup so favorable for the Bills are the injuries to DE Trent Cole and LT Jason Peters, the two best linemen the Eagles have on either side of the ball.  The Eagles can't close teams out, while the Bills thrive in the second half.  

This game will come down to which defense makes more plays since both offenses are very explosive.  Without Cole, the Eagles will blitz heavily to create pressure, and Fitzpatrick will pick apart the middle of the Eagles D.  Fred Taylor should find plenty of running lanes in the spread offense, and plenty of work in the passing game.  The Eagles are strong defensively on the outside, but the NFL has morphed into a league where teams attack the middle of the field with the rule changes, not allowing receivers to be touched past five yards downfield.

The Eagles will make their big plays to stay in it and LeSean McCoy should have a big day, but without Jason Peters anchoring that O-line, the Bills will force a couple of turnovers and come out victorious.

Prediction: Bills 38, Eagles 34

Would You Like To Go Out?

You ever met a cute girl and you guys have a nice little conversation, where she's smiling, laughing, touchy-feely and you know she's just digging you, and when it's time to ask for her number, you say something like, "Well it was nice talking to you, I have to get going"?  

Well, the Seattle Seahawks are that cute girl.  They're traveling across country, are a no-dimensional offense that can't run the ball and have Tarvaris Jackson as its QB.  Sidney Rice makes this team better, but the matchup just doesn't favor them.  Last time they traveled to the East Coast, Week 2 against Pittsburgh, they were destroyed 24-0.

Eli Manning is one of the hottest QBs in the league right now, going against a pass defense that just let Julio Jones and Roddy White combine for 17 catches for 205 yards against them.  He's got to be licking his chops, anticipating that the sweet music will continue playing.  I see the Giants going up early in this one, unleashing their pass rush on the shaky Seahawks O-line and making sure they get this girl's number before she leaves town.

Prediction: Giants 31, Seahawks 13

Battle of the Big Boys

Take Andre Johnson away from the Houston Texans, and you have the Oakland Raiders.  These two teams want to run the ball at least 30 times a game, and both teams have dynamic players to handle that load.  Both of these teams want to show that they are for real, with each beating a quality opponent (Oakland beat the Jets, and the Texans beat the Steelers) and each losing to one (Raiders to Patriots, Texans to Saints).  

This game will be about which team can run the ball better, and which team can stop the run better.  Ah, this is the way football was meant to be played!

This one is a tough one to call, with the edge going to Houston for two reasons.  First reason is Houston is home, and second, the Raiders are 29th in the league in stopping the run.  I see a repeat performance for Arian Foster, and he wins the battle of the running backs this Sunday.

Prediction: Texans 21, Raiders 17

Walking Wounded

The Pittsburgh Steelers are struggling.  Yes they are 2-2 and can easily turn it around, but this team just isn't playing Pittsburgh football.  Two things the Steelers teams of prior years are known for are running the football and stopping the run.  Right now they aren't good at either of these.  

The Steelers during the Ben Roethlisberger era have not made the playoffs following trips to the Super Bowl.  They did win the other two times they went there, but this is a trend to keep in mind.  Back to this game against Tennessee, Roethlisberger is limping around all week and the offensive line can't block a spam message right now.  I don't see many holes opening up in the running game against the eighth-ranked Titans run D, and Big Ben will take a beating until further notice.

Matt Hasselbeck comes into this matchup as one of the hotter quarterbacks so far this season, ranking fourth in passer rating at 104.7.  He's been picking apart defenses, including the ninth-ranked Ravens pass defense.  He may not have his favorite weapon in the passing game in Kenny Britt anymore this season, but he has Chris Johnson back on track, with FB Ahmad Hall back from suspension clearing the way for CJ2K.  

With Johnson making plays in the running game, that can help negate the loss of Britt.  I can see Tennessee following Houston's game plan, and go with a run-heavy attack.  Matt Hasselbeck will make enough plays in the passing game to keep the chains moving, and the Titans will stand at 4-1 heading into their bye week.

Prediction: Titans 21, Steelers 14

Battle of the Rookies

Blaine Gabbert will get another chance to beat another rookie starting quarterback.  He's 0-1 in that respect, already losing to Cam Newton, and will look to even that record as Andy Dalton and the 2-2 Bengals head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars.  In a game that features two offenses still finding their way, it will be a defensive battle. 

That's where the edge goes to the Cincinnati Bengals.  They allow an average of 86.8 rushing yards per game, and have the third-best pass defense in the league.  The Jaguars have a middle-of-the-pack defense ranking 14th and 16th in pass and run defense respectively, and they really struggle against the tight end position.  

They've allowed two 100-yard receiving games to Jimmy Graham and Dustin Keller, and that sandwiches a 10-catch, 87-yard day for the TE combination of Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey in Carolina.  That should equal a big day for Bengals TE Jermaine Gresham who is second on the team in catches and has two touchdowns thus far.  I see the Jaguars keeping the game close, but the Bengals defense being too much for the struggling Jaguars.

Prediction: Bengals 20, Jaguars 10

Don't Take a Cat Nap

The Saints are on a mission this year.  After getting bounced out of the playoffs early last season, they want a home playoff game this time around.  They know to get there, they cannot afford any letdowns during the season.  

This is your classic letdown game; on the road, divisional opponent and a dynamic offense led by Cam Newton awaits New Orleans.  Points should come easy in this one.  Fantasy football managers need to start everyone on both teams.  I expect a high-scoring close game, since it seems that with Cam Newton as the signal-caller of the Panthers they will be in every game.

Newton is for real.  He is a rare and special talent, with a great blend of size, speed and a strong throwing arm.  I'm sure all of you know this by now, unless you've been under a rock.  Newton and his Panthers are an Arizona goal-line stand and a phantom pass interference call on Jeremy Shockey away from being 3-1, rather than 1-3.  The problem for the Panthers is that their defense is giving up points just as fast as their offense is scoring them.  

The Panthers field the league's second-worst run defense that just let Matt Forte run all over them for 205 yards on Sunday.  They do have the sixth-best pass defense, but that number is meaningless in this game.  

For example, in Weeks 1 and 2, quarterbacks Kevin Kolb and Aaron Rodgers each threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns against Carolina.  Week 3, the Panthers played in that crazy downpour against the Jaguars, and last Sunday Cutler only had to attempt 17 passes with Forte running so well.  

Also, Drew Brees will find success no matter who is lining up on the other side of the ball.  I see the Saints going up early, with Newton and the Panthers making another late-game charge only to fall short once again.  This Panthers team will start to string some wins together once they learn how to put four quarters of good football together.  They won't learn that this Sunday.

Prediction: New Orleans 42, Carolina 31

Do I Have To Watch?

Luckily, this game wasn't scheduled for prime time.  The Chiefs have gone backwards so far this season at 1-3, coming off a 10-win campaign last year.  They're coming off a big win against another winless team, the Vikings, and now travel on the road to play the Colts.  

The Colts, as we all know, are 0-4 and struggling to win without Peyton Manning.  The Colts have been competitive, but unable to win some close games.  Both of these offenses are struggling to put drives together, and both defenses have struggled to make big plays for their offense.  The outcome of this game will be determined by which offense makes more mistakes.  

I think Indianapolis can and will get their first win of the year.  Two things the Colts have going for them in this game are they are the home team in this game and their defense has been improving each game.  Remember last year, when Cassel and the Chiefs brought their 3-0 record into Indianapolis, only to come out 3-1.  

Cassel struggled last year against the Cover 2 defense the Colts deploy, because he doesn't have a strong arm.  You need a strong arm to be able to fit the ball in the small windows the zone allows, and he could not, averaging a mere 5.4 yards per attempt with no touchdowns in that game.  

This Colts defense plays 10 times better at home, and I can see Freeney and Mathis getting after Cassel, forcing him to make a couple mistakes.  The Chiefs running game is not as potent as last year's version without Jamaal Charles, so the lack of a consistent balanced attack will make it difficult for Kansas City to put points on the board.  The Colts will win this ugly, brutal-to-watch game.

Prediction: Colts 17, Chiefs 13

Damn, Two of These Games?

Another ugly matchup featuring the 1-3 Arizona Cardinals, traveling to face the 0-4 Minnesota Vikings.  The two teams have lost a combined seven straight games, so someone's streak will have to end on Sunday.  This game is one the Vikings have to win, with a home game vs Denver, and a game at Carolina looking like the only winnable games left on the schedule.  

Donavan McNabb has looked bad for the last two-and-a-half years, and teams continue to dare him to beat them.  Against the league's 26th-best past defense, whose faced Rex Grossman and Tarvaris Jackson, McNabb has got to find some open guys downfield.  That should open up some running lanes for Adrian Peterson to literally carry his team to victory.

Beanie Wells exploded last week with 138 yards rushing and three TDs.  While I don't see a repeat performance, he should get somewhere around 90 yards against a respectable Minnesota run defense.  This game will have to be won by Kevin Kolb.  With the Minnesota crowd screaming like crazy, and Jared Allen coming off the edge, he will struggle to find the time to get the big passing plays this offense needs.  Last week Osi Umenyiora and Dave Tollefson of the Giants, each had two sacks on Kolb.  

This will be a close game throughout, but the struggling O-line protecting Kolb will be the undoing of the Cardinals on Sunday. 

Prediction: Vikings 23, Cardinals 20

Mile-High Meltdown?

Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers are known for starting off slow in the regular season.  Although they currently sit at 3-1 heading into this divisional battle in Denver, they still haven't played well.  Their good start has more to do with the competition than it does with their performance.  San Diego has been fortunate to have played the Vikings, Chiefs and Dolphins to start the season.  

Rivers has continued his trend of early season struggles by throwing six picks through the first four games.  A trip to Denver and their 23rd-ranked pass defense may just be the cure.  

Rivers will not have TE Antonio Gates this game, but last year he lit this Broncos defense up for four touchdowns in a 35-14 rout.  That game was without Gates, WR Vincent Jackson or RB Ryan Mathews. With Champ Bailey hurting, the Broncos pass defense has been horrendous.  I don't expect them to put up much resistance in the passing game against one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.  

The Broncos offense has just as many problems as the offense, ranking in the bottom third in both passing and rushing yards.  This game should be an easy one for San Diego, but with these divisional games, you just never know.

Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 17

Who's for Real?

Josh Freeman and the 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel across the country to play Jim Harbaugh and his 3-1 San Francisco 49ers.  This will be a battle of two up-and-coming teams looking to put their name in the conversation of top teams in the NFC.  This should be a very good game that should come down to the fourth quarter.

This may have been the hardest game to pick, with both teams being pretty evenly matched.  Usually in that case, you go to who has the home field and who has the better quarterback.  Well, Tampa Bay has the better quarterback, while San Francisco is the home team.  The 49ers rely on their defense to make plays and wear out an offense, while Tampa Bay relies on Josh Freeman and LeGarrette Blount to wear out defenses.  

I like San Francisco to come out victorious in this one because they will make Tampa Bay one-dimensional.  San Francisco has been dominant at shutting down opponents' running backs, ranking fifth in the league in run defense.  That number would be even better had they not faced Michael Vick, who put up 75 yards on the ground last Sunday.  

Tampa Bay hasn't really improved, still relying on Josh Freeman to win them games in the fourth quarter, while Alex Smith and this 49ers offense continues to improve with each given week.  Last week, Smith threw for 291 yards and two TDs against the Eagles and their pretty-good pass defense.  

Prediction: 49ers 24, Buccaneers 21

Who Says Hate Is Wrong?

Ah, the New England Patriots vs. the New York Jets—what football is all about.  

These two teams hate each other, and their budding rivalry grew to gigantic proportions when the Jets beat the Patriots in the playoffs this past January.  Anything can happen in this rivalry, so this is another tough game to call.  The Jets have lost all of their regular-season meetings against the Patriots in New England under Rex Ryan, so New England has an advantage there.  

The Jets offense has been in disarray, prompting Rex Ryan to put more of an emphasis on the running game this week.  The problem is their running game hasn't looked anywhere near what we're used to seeing, with the Jets ranked 30th in rushing yards per game.  There are problems brewing in the Jets locker room, and Mark Sanchez continues to show he cannot win without a dominant rushing attack, which spells trouble for the Jets' postseason hopes.  

Even though the Jets have lost two straight and should play inspiring football on the road against a hated rival, there's no way I'm picking them over the Patriots.  There are just certain things in life that are guaranteed: death, taxes and Belichick and Tom Brady getting revenge.  That playoff loss to the Jets is still fresh in their heads, which is why they added beef to their defensive line and another receiver in Chad Ochocinco.  One thing you just don't do in life is expect Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to lose to the same team twice in a row.  

The Jets will welcome back their star center Nick Mangold, who will help in the running and passing game, but the Patriots should have DT Albert Haynesworth back to line up right over Mangold.  The Jets will move the ball, but they will struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone.  Patriots all the way in this one, and the Jets will have to hear more commentary from Joe Namath.  

Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 17

No Respect!

Another rematch of a last year's playoffs features Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers traveling to Atlanta to play the Falcons.  The Falcons lost that playoff matchup of course, and will be looking to settle the score this Sunday.  

Aaron Rodgers feels there's a score he needs to settle as well, feeling that he and his team didn't get the credit or respect they deserved from the Falcons after beating them.  Last year, the Packers put up 48 points against this Falcons defense, and nothing I've seen this year from either team that suggests it won't happen again.

The Falcons are in the middle of a transition.  They have traditionally been a run-first team, leaning on Michael Turner to open up the play-action passes downfield.  This year, they haven't run the ball as effectively as in the past, and with the addition of rookie WR Julio Jones to pair up with Roddy White, this team is more suited to spread out the field and throw the ball more.  In this game they will have no choice but to abandon the running game against Green Bay's second-best run defense.  

As quickly as the Packers offense puts points on the board, this game will come down to which quarterback can make more plays.  Right now I have to see the Packers lose before I pick against them, Rodgers is that good.  Matt Ryan is excellent at home, but the Packers showed last year they can beat the Falcons in the Georgia Dome.  Rodgers will earn the respect of Roddy White after this one.

Prediction: Packers 41, Falcons 31

Protection Please!

The Chicago Bears have to be one of the more bipolar teams in the NFL.  One week they destroy the Atlanta Falcons, the next week they get destroyed by the New Orleans Saints.  One week Matt Forte carries the ball nine times for two yards, the next week he carries it 25 times for 205 yards.  You just never know what you're going to see from them any given Sunday.  

Now they will travel on the road to another dome (at New Orleans in Week 2) to take on Matthew Stafford and the undefeated Detroit Lions.  This should be an excellent Monday night matchup to cap off a pretty good weekend of games.

In a game that features two quarterbacks that have taken a lot of hits, this game will come down to which offensive line can give their QB enough time to find the open guy.  Detroit LT Jeff Backus did a good job on DeMarcus Ware, holding him to zero sacks, although Ware got three hits on Stafford.  Now Backus has to deal with Julius Peppers all night.  

The Bears don't have that dominant defense thus far, ranking 29th and 23rd against the pass and run respectively.  The Lions are going to put points on the board, and I'm pretty sure they won't let Matt Forte run for 200 yards against them since the Bears just aren't a dominant run team.  This means that the hopes for the Bears will rest on the arm of Jay Cutler in this game, which almost never goes well.

Cutler will have difficulty finding open receivers against the 12th-ranked pass defense that has Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch on the defensive front ready to attack this weak Bears offensive line.  Last game the Bears played in a dome, Week 2 versus the Saints, Cutler was sacked six times, hit 10 times and lost one fumble.  

Plus, no one if football is stopping WR Calvin Johnson right now; he's grabbed two TDs in each game so far.  You have to have four guys on him in order to have a chance to keep him from scoring.  Lions should handle the Bears and cruise to 5-0.

Prediction: Lions 30, Bears 20