Patriots vs. Jets: 5 Reasons New England Will Beat New York

The New England Patriots are preparing to resume one of the more heated rivalries in the NFL this Sunday with the visit of the New York Jets to Gillette Stadium—not that you would know it.

Most weeks building up to Patriots-Jets clashes are punctuated with outlandish quotes and bold predictions, but aside from a couple of Antonio Cromartie soundbites falling on deaf ears, the hype and emotion has been muted.

Listening to head coach Rex Ryan this week, you wonder if the Jets are losing their swagger. Thanks to consecutive losses to the Oakland Raiders and Baltimore Ravens on the road, there's no talk of AFC Championships, just promises to improve and focus on the fundamentals sorely lacking in recent weeks.

The Patriots, for their part, have concerns over their own foundations. The worst secondary in the league, the loss of defensive centerpiece Jerod Mayo with an MCL sprain and a lackluster pass rush provide Bill Belichick with one of the most demanding coaching challenges in his 37-year career.

Whilst I believe both teams will be challenging for the AFC East crown at the end of the season, neither is playing their best football at present, giving this contest has a "must-win" feel to it. To the loser, a period of introspection and media scrutiny awaits. Thoughts of a Super Bowl will be far from the mind, and survival in the division becomes the sole focus.

I believe the Patriots will have too much for the Jets in Foxborough this Sunday. Here are five reasons why.

1) The Patriots Have a Stronger Running Game

Nick Mangold has done as much for his reputation in his absence this season as the All-Pro center has ever done through deeds on the field. Without him, the Jets' running game has stalled and pass protection for Mark Sanchez has all but disappeared.

It's not all on the offensive line, however; the running game lacks dynamism in the form of Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson. On that basis, I have a tough time believing Rex Ryan's declaration that the team will revert to "ground and pound" this week, even if the Patriots are relying on a replacement for tackle machine Jerod Mayo. Mangold will likely return this week, but coming in after a three-week absence to face Vince Wilfork and friends is a tough assignment

When the Jets review the tape from the Patriots' Week 4 win in Oakland, they will see a defense that, for the most part, contained Darren McFadden. Greene has rushed for no more than 59 yards in a game this year, and with the Patriots' secondary in disarray, surely the temptation to restore Mark Sanchez's confidence will factor into the game plan.

With Tom Brady in record-setting mood, there appeared to be little reason to talk about the Patriots' run game early this season. They found out the hard way, though; when Brady has an off-day, such as his four-interception performance in Buffalo, there needs to be a plan B.

Enter Stevan Ridley. The third-round rookie out of LSU ran with purpose and power in racking up 97 yards and a score against a Raiders defense designed to stop the run. He figures to be a key component again this weekend, particularly if former Jet Danny Woodhead fails to recover from his ankle injury in time.

2) Balanced Offense Makes Brady More Dangerous

The Patriots showed commitment to the running game in Oakland in Week 4 with 30 rushes compared with 30 Brady pass attempts. With such balance, Tom Brady can utilize the play-action passing game to devastating effect; if Jets linebackers have to respect the run, there can be no cheating up the field to defend the pass.

The truth still remains that when Brady is in the mood, he can beat virtually any team with a pass-heavy approach, but the ability to control the clock and grind out long, energy-sapping drives down the field creates potential for mismatches against a tired defense. Consider how differently the Patriots' playoff loss to the Jets could have played out with an effective run game; would Rex Ryan's men have been able to get away with nickel personnel in man coverage so often? 

Finally, credit must go to the Patriots' offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia for building a versatile line that can open up running lanes and protect Brady in equal measures. Rookie tackle Nate Solder was expected to have a limited role as the understudy to Matt Light this year, but he has performed admirably on the right side of the line in relief of the injured Sebastian Vollmer.

3) Mark Sanchez Will Struggle to Keep Pace with Tom Brady

The review of the Jets' Week 4 loss in Baltimore will have made for ugly viewing for Mark Sanchez. In an extraordinary game, the Jets and the Ravens combined for an NFL-record five return touchdowns, three of which were generated by a swarming Baltimore pass rush. Mark Sanchez coughed up three fumbles and a pick in total, completed 31 percent of his passes and took home a miserable 31.4 rating.

Jets wide receiver Santonio Holmes felt compelled to mention the lack of protection for Sanchez after the game, which aside from stating the obvious, also distracts from the bigger problem. The Jets are confused; do they want to be a running team, or a passing team?

Going into the season, Rex Ryan pledged to expand the playbook for Sanchez, which made sense in principal. They have a former first-round pick entering his third year in the league, who is eager to prove he can win games as well as manage them.

Their aerial approach has yet to yield consistent rewards, but Sunday provides an opportunity to restore confidence. New England has conceded an average of 369 yards per game through the air, but on the other side of the ball, Tom Brady leads the league with a 385 average. The Patriots have scored at a relentless pace this season and are brutally efficient in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 70 percent of their visits. I'd be surprised if Sanchez can keep pace with Brady, even if his defense can keep the score down to manageable levels.

4) Pick Your Poison: Wes Welker, or Tight Ends?

How the Jets counter the threat of Wes Welker is perhaps the most important aspect of Sunday's contest. You have to think that Rex Ryan will use Darrelle Revis as much as possible on a man-coverage assignment, which if performed effectively, would shut down Tom Brady's favorite option in the passing game.

There are drawbacks to such a plan, namely that Revis typically operates on the outsides covering physical or vertical receiving threats. I'm sure that he can cover the slot effectively, but this would be an unfamiliar role, and Welker is the best in the business on the short to intermediate routes. With Revis in the slot, Brady may take more risks downfield if Kyle Wilson is forced to defend the likes of Deion Branch or Matthew Slater on long passing plays.

I have no doubt that the Jets' defensive game plan will focus on taking away the key thing the Patriots like to do most. If that means taking Welker out of the equation, then a big day for tight ends Rob Gronkowski and the returning Aaron Hernandez beckons.

When used in tandem, the physicality of Gronkowski offers a stark contrast to the speed and elusiveness of Hernandez, which presents defensive coordinators with serious matchup headaches. Both have superb hands and will see plenty of the ball thrown in their direction, particularly given Chad Ochocinco's struggles with the playbook. 

5) Home Advantage and Recent Form Are Key

For me, the key here is not the atmosphere, or the passion of the fanbase. This is not the Black Hole in Oakland, nor the 12th Man in Seattle. But Brady's regular-season form at Gillette Stadium is nothing short of remarkable. His last defeat came in Week 10 of the 2006 season (to the Jets, no less), a record which Rex Ryan alluded to in his media conferences this week. It can be done, but teams visiting Foxborough need to execute the perfect game plan, and hope that Brady has an off day. However, with January's playoff defeat still fuelling Brady's competitive desire, expect him to be at the top of his game.

This is a tough spot for New York in the schedule, heading into their third consecutive road game. They have travelled the width of the country in the past fortnight and will be grateful to spend the next two weeks in East Rutherford. As much as the familiarity of the opponent will provide inspiration, recent losses and struggles on offense will prove to be too much to overcome against the high-powered Patriots attack.

I'm taking the Patriots to overcome a tough divisional opponent, winning 28-20.