NFL Picks Week 5: Why the Indianapolis Colts Will Get the W

You have to feel for the Indianapolis Colts.

Before their 2011 season even got underway, it was totally doomed.

Peyton Manning's wounded neck is to blame for that. He hasn't been put on injured reserve quite yet, but every indication is that he is not going to play a single snap this season. The Colts have no choice but to make do.

So far, the Colts haven't made much of anything. They're 0-4, and last place in the AFC South is firmly in their grasp.

But the Colts are not going to go 0-16. They're going to get a win sooner or later, and I think they're going to get it this weekend against the Kansas City Chiefs.

To boot, the oddsmakers agree with me. The spread (according to Bodog) has the Colts favored by three points on Sunday. Given the way the Chiefs have played this season, it's easy to see why.

The Chiefs got their first win of the season in Week 4, but it was anything but pretty. Matt Cassel and Todd Haley were shown shouting at each other on the sidelines in the second quarter, and the Chiefs needed five field goals to dispatch the Minnesota Vikings 22-17.

By the way—these would be the same Vikings who are 0-4. They're one of the worst teams in the league, and the Chiefs were barely able to beat them—at home, no less.

I foresee similar struggles this weekend in Indianapolis. The Colts are not a strong defensive team, but even they should be able to keep Kansas City's offense in check.

The Chiefs offense is nowhere near as effective without Jamaal Charles, and Cassel is about as far from reliable as quarterbacks get.

True enough, it's not like the Colts have a reliable quarterback, either. In fact, they don't even know whether they're going to play Curtis Painter or Kerry Collins against the Chiefs.

It's a decision that basically involves Jim Caldwell going with the lesser of two evils.

The bright side is that the Chiefs are not particularly formidable against the run. That should allow the Colts to give Joseph Addai a heavy workload, and good things will happen for the Colts if he is able to produce.

When push comes to shove, this is going to be a close game either way.

The Colts are fortunate enough to have plenty of recent experience in that regard, as each of their last two games have gone down to the wire. They barely lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3, and they played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tough on Monday night.

My guess is that the Colts are going to play the Chiefs tough on Sunday. This time, their efforts will result in a W.

Prediction: Colts 20, Chiefs 14