NFL Picks Week 5: Why New York Jets Will Upset Patriots in New England

The New York Jets will be heading into Foxbourough this week showing the world that they are holding their heads high and as usual, their mouths will be open (perfect media fodder). They will also, on the inside more likely, be level headed and realistic. They are coming off back to back ugly losses, both on the road and they need to make a statement.

Two weeks ago they made the dreaded “East Coast team traveling west” trip to Oakland where they got out hustled and were outmatched physically. The Raiders did to the Jets what the Jets usually do to everyone else.

Hoping for both a bounce-back win and a statement win, they then headed into Baltimore Sunday night. Sunday night’s highly anticipated Jets-Ravens game did not quite deliver.

It featured two of the worst quarterback performances of the year or two of the best defensive performances of the year depending on how you look at it. I still can’t figure out whether it was bad O or great D.

The Jets now find themselves sitting at 2-2 with a game at New England this coming Sunday. Despite how bad it has gotten, a win on the road Sunday, and they have the same record as their rivals.

If there were ever a time for Rex Ryan to remind us how good his team can be, and is, it would be this coming Sunday. Rex is going to stand at the podium and proclaim his team the better of the two, letting everyone listening know that they’re going to go into Gillette Stadium angry and hungry and ready to play smash mouth football.

I agree with what Rex Ryan has not yet said (but will say). Here are four reasons the New York Jets upset the New England Patriot s on Sunday.

The New England Patriots Are the Worst Pass Defense Team in the NFL

Four weeks into the NFL season the New England Patriots, statistically, have the worst pass defense in the NFL. Their secondary is highly suspect and it has shown through four weeks.

The Patriots rank last in the NFL in pass yards allowed and yards per pass attempt. To be completely fair, they are also second to last (31st) in terms of pass attempts thrown against them. This just means teams recognize the weakness and are going after it.

Four weeks in, the Patriots haven’t exactly faced the cream of the crop either; they have surrendered a total of 1,507 passing yards to Chad Henne, Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jason Campbell.

The four previously opposing quarterbacks have an average quarterback rating of 90.825 against the Patriots this year and they completed 67 percent of their passes against the Patriots. All four guys threw for more yards against New England than they have against anyone else.

Enter Mark Sanchez. Prior to the Baltimore game this past Sunday, Sanchez had a quarterback rating of 89.4. He had thrown six touchdowns to just four interceptions, had completed 62.5 percent of his passes. In those first three games of the season, he was sacked a total of nine times and hit a total of 16.

Now, take away the Jets starting center Nick Mangold, through the team into M&T Bank Stadium, more commonly known as “The Bank” and tell Mark Sanchez he has to work behind from the get go. You just created an unfortunate recipe for disaster.

The Ravens hit Sanchez 10 times, sacked him four times, and their ability to stop the run and their lead forced Rex Ryan to call passing plays on traditionally running downs.

Sanchez will be going from the Ravens defensive line, 11 sacks through four weeks, to the Patriots line, five sacks through four weeks. Ray Lewis will not be in the mix, and due to injury neither will New England Patriot linebacker Jerod Mayo, Sanchez also won’t have to worry about the ball hawk Ed Reed.

The Jets offensive line is floundering week after week, but so is the Patriots defensive line.

You wouldn’t expect it, but a trip to Foxbourough might be just want the doctor ordered for Sanchez and the Jets pass game.  

The New York Jets Will Contain Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski

As bad as the Patriots pass defense is, the Jets is that much better. They rank second in the NFL in passing yards allowed and have picked off seven passes through four weeks. The Jets haven’t faced the most stellar competition either through four weeks.

Tony Romo, Luke McCown and Blaine Gabbert (both for Jacksonville), Jason Campbell and Joe Flacco have average 6.05 yards per completion against the Jets.

Tom Brady is notorious for hitting targets like Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski for short gains that develop after the catch. Wes Welker has 616 receiving yards through Week 4, 227 of them have come after the catch. That’s 36.8 percent.

The story is the same for Brady’s second favorite target Gronkowski. He has 296 receiving yards thus far, and 122 of them have come after the catch. 41.2 percent.

The Jets are an outstanding tackling team in the secondary and in open field. Two of their top five leading tacklers are in the secondary (Eric Smith and Antonio Cromartie).

Brady has completed 109-of-163 pass attempts thus far this season, 40 of them to Wes Welker. Gronkowski doesn’t even have half that number (he has 18 receptions). Rex Ryan is a defensive specialist and guru; he lives for big games and thrives under pressure.

He will come up with a defensive scheme that limits Welker’s receptions and forces Brady to hit other targets such as Gronkowski, Deion Branch and Aaron Hernandez and if he really has to, maybe even Chad Ochocinco.

New England Is Depleted Defensively with the Loss of Jerod Mayo

The New England Patriots had one unfortunate thing happen in their big win at Oakland this past weekend. They lost linebacker Jerod Mayo for up to six weeks. As avid Patriots fan Bill Simmons said on his pod cast Monday morning, “We had two good defensive players, and now one of them is hurt.”

Mayo was the heart and soul of the Patriots linebacker core; a solid tackler and a great leader. He was the team’s second leading tackler and he won’t be easily replaced.

This will serve as great news for the Jets running backs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson. Both backs have gotten off to slow starts this season for various reasons. The Jets have fallen behind in several games, limiting the flexibility of play calling (specifically run plays).

Their defense, whether the Jets are trailing or ahead in the game, have been giving up more points than usual, in turn forcing the Jets to score points. It is tough to get into a flow as a running back when your number of carries is limited and when your team is slinging the ball up and down the field trying to stay in the game.

No Jerod Mayo, and a mediocre Patriots line, present a perfect opportunity for Rex Ryan to remind himself, and the league, who he (and his team) is. They have a perfect opportunity to play New York Jet football this week.

If Green and Tomlinson can fight through the first line of defense and get into the open field where Mayo normally is, they will have a shot at breaking tackles and stretching out some of their runs, a recipe of success.

New England Cannot Capitolize on the Jets Offensive Line Issues

As I mentioned earlier, the subpar Patriots secondary is a welcome sight for Mark Sanchez this coming weekend. But it gets better for the young quarterback. The Patriots only have six sacks through four weeks as a team.

Jason Babin of Philadelphia and Jared Allen of Minnesota have more than six, on their own. The New York Jets line has been unable to block anybody, but this week that’s fine because the Patriots line is just as unable to hit anybody.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick switched to a 4-3 defensive scheme this season and through four weeks it hasn’t worked well. They cannot rush the passer, or defended the pass. Through four weeks, they only send extra pressure on 26 percent of quarterback drop backs, fourth fewest in the NFL.

It’s understandable considering how poor their secondary is. If the corners and safeties get burned on a four man rush, I’m sure Belichick is afraid to consistently send five or six men.

Sanchez will have time this weekend to sit back in the pocket, read the defense, read his progressions and find his open man. He won’t face the pressure he faced last week from the defensive line, the line backing core, or the secondary.

He will have enough time to make sound decisions, and in doing so, he will play a solid football game and lead the Jets to an upset over the Patriots.