Five Reasons Why the Gators Will Beat the Tide: A Response to Mark Schlabach

Mark Schlabach, in his most recent column for ESPN.com's college football section, lays out an argument for why Alabama will beat Florida in the upcoming SEC Championship Game.

Let's walk through some of these rationales, one by one, and dispel them for the myths they are.

"Alabama has the necessary ingredients—a stifling, physical defense and a punishing, ball-control offense—to slow the Gators down."

1) Stifling Defense? Yes.  Alabama has held its opponents to 15 touchdowns this year, allowing an average of only 248.5 yards per game.  That is pretty impressive. 

However, their opponents aren't exactly offensive juggernauts.  In fact, besides Georgia and possibly Ole Miss, the Tide really haven't played anyone who has a legitimate offense all season.

The Gators have a legitimate offense.  Teams that have been suggested as having GREAT SEC defenses (LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, to name a few) have been gashed for 51, 49, and 56 points, and 475, 398, and 519 yards, respectively.  All three of these teams went into their games with the Gators ballyhooed as having great defenses.  All three got smacked in the mouth.

2) Punishing, Ball-Control Offense? Yes.  Alabama has a huge offensive line, two good backs, a competent QB and what seems like only one legitimate threat at wide-out.  With Saban as the coach, it is a no-brainer that they run the ball all the time and very well.  With close to 2500 yards on the ground (2418) and 30 rushing touchdowns, it would be my guess that Saban will pound the rock all night, to keep the Gators offense on the sideline and keep the clock running.  

The Gators have a quietly GREAT defense.  Opponents have averaged 12.25 points per game, to the Gators' six trillion.  Very good offenses have looked VERY mediocre against this crew. If the Tide want to run the ball all night, they will have to outrun one of the fastest linebacking group in the country.  When they find that they are down a couple of scores (which I think will be midway through the 2nd quarter), they will try to throw.  And the Gator secondary will eat JP Wilson alive like he was JP Losman throwing on the Patriots.

3) "With Cody healthy again, Alabama's defense should have more than enough to slow the Gators down."

An interior lineman is going to slow down the Gator running backs?  C'mon, Mark, that just doesn't make any sense.  Sure, we may try and slip a few runs up the gut.  But the most reasonable assumption is bouncing these track stars to the outside.  Or better yet, let Tebow do some play-action to himself, then sidestep Mr. Cody on his way into the secondary.   It would be fun to see Cody try and track down Demps or Rainey.  They would have time to resuscitate the spirit of The Bear on a Ouija Board by the time he caught up with them. 

4) "It's hard to find many coaches who are better than Saban at preparing a game plan."

Try Urban Meyer.  No disrespect to Mr. Saban, who, although has no ethics. is definitely a hell of a coach.  But Meyer is easily comparable, if not better, than Saban.  With two bad teams playing, this would be a fun game to watch with the quality of coaches on either side of the field.  With two GREAT teams playing, this is gonna be the most exciting game of the year. 

The advantage that Meyer has, I believe, is in the assistant coaches.  It is hard for me to understand why more teams aren't looking to the Gators' assistants as the next crop of GREAT head coaches for their teams.  Charlie Strong, Dan Mullen and company are in my opinion some of the best in the business.  With more time working with Meyer than the Tide assistants have had with Saban, and more big game experience (this coaching staff has been to a COUPLE of big games, while the Tide are making their debut with this coaching staff), the Gators have the edge.

5) "Alabama doesn't have to be as explosive on offense because its defense won't surrender many points."

This is the worst argument in the article.  The defense won't surrender many points?  Have you been watching ANY of the Gators games in the last month?  They are going to score points.  Lots of points.  Whether Alabama's defense holds the Gators under their season averages is a reasonable thing to say.  But it would be a miracle if the Gators don't put up at least 30. 

And Finally, a Bonus Point:

"Senior quarterback John Parker Wilson attempted only 16 passes, completing eight throws for 134 yards with one touchdown."—referring to the Iron Bowl.

Wilson has not been called on to perform this season because he really hasn't needed to.  In the games where the Tide played good defenses, Wilson has very bland statistics, throwing very few TDs and an uncomfortable number of INTs.  If the Tide get down at any point in this game, and they have to call on Wilson, welll....rammer Jammer is not gonna echo through Atlanta.