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NFL Picks Week 4: Score Prediction and Analysis for Monday Night Football

Andrea HangstOct 3, 2011

Tonight, the Indianapolis Colts travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers in the final contest of Week 4. The Colts are trying yet again to snap their winless streak, which currently stands at three, and the Buccaneers are looking to prove that the potential for dominance that emerged in 2010 is well on its way to being fully realized.

Alas, this will not be the game to truly judge the talents of the Bucs, as the Colts aren't likely to prove much of a test. Indianapolis will be starting backup Curtis Painter at quarterback, with Kerry Collins still suffering from concussion symptoms, and is fielding a team that has seen its elite players fall to the wayside without Peyton Manning on the field.

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The Colts have two defensive players, defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who can easily make a difference for the team tonight. But as we saw in the team's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, two defensive superstars do not a complete team make.

Furthermore, the Buccaneers have an exponentially better offensive line than the Steelers; this will keep Tampa quarterback Josh Freeman upright and able to throw both deep and shallow balls to receivers Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn, as well to tight end Kellen Winslow.

The otherwise poor Indianapolis defense should provide a great venue for Freeman to right his course. Though Tampa is 2-1 through three games, he's thus far had a disappointing season, throwing for just 682 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions.

Tempering these weak passing numbers are running backs LeGarrette Blount and Earnest Graham. Blount gets most of the carries on first and second downs, with Graham spelling him on short-yardage and goal-line formations.

One major issue for the Buccaneers that has continued from last season is their propensity to either win or lose games by a close margin, and there are ways for the Colts to capitalize on this. Tampa's defense is middling against the run and struggles against the pass. Should Painter get into a rhythm, he can give Tampa a run for its money, requiring the team to win the game with offense rather than defense.

It will be hard, however, for the Colts to do this. Painter's uninspiring performance this preseason is what gave way to the signing of Collins. While Collins hasn't been as helpful as hoped, he's still the starter and would be under center tonight if not for his lingering concussion symptoms.

While Tampa has seen a number of close games since 2010, I don't see tonight's being difficult enough to warrant a tight contest.

Indianapolis has a significant test tonight. The Colts haven't managed a win against any team, poor or good, all season; it appears that quality of opponent won't inform the team's overall performance, tonight or any week.

All in all, I think that even if the Colts threw everything they had at the Buccaneers tonight, it won't be enough to notch their first win on the season. Indianapolis' infamous season will continue on the same path that it walked upon when entering Tampa: winless and in trouble.

Final Score: Tampa Bay 30, Indianapolis 13.

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