Monday Night Fantasy Breakdown: Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

Rankings based on top 32 QBs, 50 RBs, 75 WRs and 30 TEs

Indianapolis Colts (Colts Schedule)

Opponent Defensive Ranks

Tampa Bay Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 23rd (114 Yards/Game)

Rush TDs Allowed: T-13th (2)

Tampa Bay Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 23rd (271 Yards/Game)

Passing TDs Allowed: T-10th (4)

Indianapolis Offensive Cast

Curtis Painter (QB Week 4 Ranking: No. 30)

2011 Season: 5-of-11 for 60 yards and zero TDs

Ugh.  It looks like the Colts will have to go with Painter tonight as Collins is still dealing with concussion issues. With a career 33.3 completion percentage and not a single TD to his name, you might be better off going with no QB if your league subtracts for interceptions.

Kerry Collins (QB Week 4 Ranking: Not Ranked)

2011 Season: 48-of-98 for 481 yards and two TDs

Collins will sit this one out with a concussion.

Joseph Addai (RB Week 4 Ranking: No. 23)

2011 Season: 39 carries for 189 yards and one TD, seven receptions for 52 yards and zero TDs

Addai looked terrific last weekend for the first time in a while and should get another chance to prove his worth against a weak Tampa rush defense tonight. With the Colts starting QB Curtis Painter in this one, you can expect a heavy dose of Addai which could end up giving him low-end RB2 stats for the week.

Delone Carter (RB Week 4 Ranking: Not Ranked)

2011 Season: 22 carries for 82 yards and zero TDs, zero receptions

Carter has a future here in Indy, but his value at this point is pretty much just along the goal line, which isn’t bad for TD-heavy leagues, but you can do better.

Reggie Wayne (WR Week 4 Ranking: No. 19)

2011 Season: 14 receptions for 196 yards and one TD

Wayne obviously has no chance to be that dependable No. 1 fantasy receiver we’ve all come to know over the last seven seasons, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be completely useless either.

Kerry Collins isn’t a 10th of the QB Peyton Manning is, as plainly shown by Reggie catching just 14 of the 32 targets he’s seen on the season, and Curtis Painter could end up being much worse. Still, at least the Colts are trying to get him the ball.

Tampa doesn’t have the greatest secondary, so even if they stick CB Aqid Talib on him all game, Reggie should still be able to come up with some low-end WR2 fantasy numbers by game’s end.

Pierre Garcon (WR Week 4 Ranking: No. 43)

2011 Season: 12 receptions for 149 yards and zero TDs

With Manning, he’s a WR2. With Collins, he might only be a WR4. With Painter, who knows, but at least these two hooked up well when Painter came into the game last weekend.

If you played him, don’t expect more than mediocre numbers at best.

Austin Collie (WR Week 4 Ranking: No. 71)

2011 Season: Eight receptions for 53 yards and zero TDs

Painter may learn how good of an outlet receiver Collie is real soon, but I just can’t rank Austin any higher than this. Indy won’t go with too many three-receiver sets this year, much less tonight with an inexperienced QB under center.

Dallas Clark (TE Week 4 Ranking: No. 11)

2011 Season: 10 receptions for 83 yards and one TD

Dallas is far too talented to start putting him down in the 20-25 range, but until I see a good game out of him and/or the Colts QBs, he simply doesn’t have the same value as he did in the past.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Buccaneers Schedule)

Opponent Defensive Ranks

Indianapolis Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 22nd (113.3 Yards/Game)

Rushing TDs Allowed: 30th (4)

Indianapolis Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 18th (252 Yards/Game)

Passing TDs Allowed: T-5th (3)

Tampa Bay Offensive Cast

Josh Freeman (QB Week 4 Ranking: No. 20)

2011 Season: 72-of-106 for 682 yards and two TDs

Freeman, as usual, has been extremely vanilla thus far in terms of fantasy and I’m not sure I expect much more from him in this one. Tampa should be able to shellac Indy all game tonight, albeit with most of the pounding done on the ground.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Josh throw a couple of TDs, but somewhere around 225 yards and one TD should be enough for a Buccaneers victory.

LeGarrette Blount (RB Week 4 Ranking: No. 10)

2011 Season: 42 carries for 167 yards and two TDs, one reception for 13 yards and zero TDs

This might be the game the Buccaneers run the hell out of LeGarrette Blount. Against a Colts team they know they can beat, if they just keep at 'em throughout the whole game they'll see exactly what Blount is good for…wearing down an opponent.

Indy hasn’t been a very good rush D for a while now and with this game being at home where he’s thoroughly excelled, you know Blount is in for a good 20-plus carries. Anything less than 100 yards and a TD would be a bit of a disappointment in my book.

Earnest Graham (RB Week 4 Ranking: No. 46)

2011 Season: 11 carries for 30 yards and zero TDs, 20 receptions for 116 yards and zero TDs

Graham has been doing really well in the 3rd-down role this year and is actually a pretty good play in PPR leagues at this point, but that’s as far as it goes with him.

Mike Williams (WR Week 4 Ranking: No. 20)

2011 Season: 10 receptions for 89 yards and one TD

Talk about slow starts! Those who expected Williams to come close to being a WR1 this season have been disappointed to the utmost degree. Opposing defenses have figured out that the Bucs really don’t have anyone else to throw to, so putting Big Mike in double-coverage is pretty much a no-brainer for them.

That being said, it looks like Freeman is still trying to get him the ball and will continue to do so until Williams breaks out.

Against a very mediocre Colts D, this could be the week.

Arrelious Benn (WR Week 4 Ranking: No. 62)

2011 Season: Eight receptions for 71 yards and one TD

The big WR out of Illinois will turn some heads down in Tampa sooner or later, but until he does, leave him on your bench.

Preston Parker (WR Week 4 Ranking: Not Ranked)

2011 Season: 11 receptions for 153 yards and zero TDs

Parker actually has more catches than Mike Williams right now, but that should change after tonight.

Kellen Winslow Jr. (TE Week 4 Ranking: No. 12)

2011 Season: 12 receptions for 130 yards and zero TDs

It’s looking like it will be the same old story for Winslow again this season. His Week 1 production of six receptions on eight targets for 66 yards was nice (even better in a PPR league), but as usual, Kellen can’t seem to find the end zone.

His talent simply doesn’t translate well in the world of fantasy.

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