NFL Picks Week 4: Score Prediction and Analysis for Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football tonight will feature one of the most entertaining matchups of the young season.  The New York Jets, led by Rex Ryan, will visit the Baltimore Ravens, the large and loud head coach’s previous employer.  When the two teams meet, the big hits always seem a little nastier, as Ryan has worked to build the Jets in Baltimore’s image.

For the most part, Ryan has succeeded in his goal, creating a hard-nosed defense and carrying a distinctive (and often obnoxious) swagger reminiscent of Ray Lewis and the rest of the Ravens in the early 2000s.  But regardless of his personality, Ryan had brought results in the form of two consecutive AFC Championship Games.

The Jets, however, looked uncharacteristically bad against the Oakland Raiders last week.  That vaunted defense got eviscerated on the ground by Darren McFadden to the tune of 171 yards on just 19 carries.  That is not the kind of performance anyone wants to see right before they take on Ray Rice. 

The Oakland performance isn’t a complete aberration, either.  Even in their dominating performance against Jacksonville, Maurice Jones-Drew had decent success, nearly hitting 90 yards.  This trend has to be keeping Ryan up at night, and could very well play a huge role in the outcome tonight.

Ray Rice is off to a great start both rushing and receiving this season.  He still hasn’t been held under 95 total yards this season and has three TDs. While I'm sure he was the primary focus for the Jets this week in practice, that doesn't necessarily mean they can stop him, and I think they won't.

But assuming the Jets can keep Rice somewhat in check, this is a game Mark Sanchez has to go win if the Jets want to have a chance.  The Ravens can be exploited through the air, as their corners are the weakest links on their still very good defense. 

Sanchez’s success, however, hinges on the Jets suspect offensive line keeping him clean.  The Ravens can wreak havoc with their front seven and if they can hit Sanchez early and often, this game could turn in to a rout.

I think Baltimore will win and it won’t be particularly close.  Sanchez won’t be able to get comfortable enough to beat the Ravens defense, and the Jets will continue to struggle with marquee running backs.  Ray Rice and the Baltimore defense are in for big nights, as the Ravens win running away.  Baltimore wins 27-14.