Too Many Factors Against Notre Dame's Chance for BCS Game

With yesterday's thrashing of Purdue, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have won three straight football games.  They've turned around a disappointing 0-2 start and have shown improvement and more consistency with each win.

Thoughts of a 10-2 season are creeping into the back of Domers' minds.  Thoughts of making a BCS game have risen from the ashes of a perceived lost season.

Do the Irish have a chance to make it to a BCS game this season? It would take more than a miracle.

N.D. needs to win out and finish with a 10-2 record

Three loses won't cut it. Notre Dame needs to win the rest of their games and the odds of this happening are very small.

Games against Boston College, Air Force, at Wake Forest, and at Maryland are very winnable and the Irish should be favored in each.

However, tree teams stand in the way of a 10-2 record: USC, Stanford and Navy.

It helps that the USC (4-1) game is at home.  It doesn't help that the game against No. 7 Stanford (4-0) is on the road.

It doesn't help that they only get one week to prepare for Navy's triple option offense, either.  The Middies have won the last three of four against the Irish.

The four at-large bids are already almost gone

With five BCS games, including the National Championship, only four at-large bids will exist after the winners of the six BCS conferences have been determined.

Unfortunately, these four bids are likely to be filled by teams with better credentials than the Irish will have at season's end.

It looks like No. 7 Boise State (4-0) is going to take one of these bids. 

In 2010, Boise got picked off by a 13-1 Nevada team, which kept them out of a possible BCS Championship Game, but they beat Nevada yesterday, and it looks like clear sailing the rest of the way for the Broncos.

The SEC is going to place two teams in a BCS game: No. 1 LSU (5-0), No. 2 Alabama (5-0), and No. 10 Arkansas (4-1) all have a chance.  Two of them are going to get in.

Now we are down to two at-large bids remaining.

The Big 12 is going to place two teams in a BCS game as well: No. 3 Oklahoma (5-0), No. 6 Oklahoma State (4-0), and No. 11 Texas (4-0) all have a chance.  Two are going to get in.

Now there's one bid left.

Although not a guarantee, there's a chance that the ACC could send two teams this year.  No. 8 Clemson (5-0) and No. 13 Georgia Tech (5-0) could both qualify.

Clemson has already piled up enough quality wins (Auburn, FSU, and Virginia Tech) that their resume should be enough, even if they finish with two losses.

Georgia Tech still has to play Clemson, Virginia Tech and Georgia.  This doesn't seem that difficult, but they could see Clemson twice, once in the regular season and once in the ACC Conference Championship Game.

Michigan's schedule could sink the Irish

There's a strong chance the Big Ten will send two teams to a BCS game. One will be the conference champion, likely No. 4 Wisconsin (5-0).  The other could be No. 12 Michigan, a team which defeated Notre Dame earlier this year.

Michigan still has to play No. 14 Nebraska (4-1), No. 19 Illinois 5-0), Michigan State (4-1) and Ohio State (3-2).

The Wolverines won't see Wisconsin in the regular season. 

Nebraska got beat bad by Wisconsin last night in what was their first real test, and this year's Ohio State team is its worst in years.

Notre Dame favoritism will help their chances

One factor that will work for the Irish is the favoritism they receive from the pollsters. 

In the latest polls, for example, they've been ranked in the "others receiving votes" column ahead of Georgia (3-2), North Carolina (4-1), Tennessee (3-1), Missouri (2-2), Pittsburgh ( 3-2), Penn State (4-1), and South Florida (4-1).

Each of these teams can claim they've had as good, or a better season, than the Irish.