MLB Playoffs: ALDS Game 1 Pitching Analysis and Predictions

After one of the most exciting ends to the regular season in the history of Major League Baseball, the playoffs kick off tonight with the first games of the American League Division Series. The Tampa Bay Rays face the Texas Rangers at 5:07 PM Eastern Time, and the Detroit Tigers square off with the New York Yankees at 8:37. Let's take a look at the slated starters for both Game 1 matchups, and see which teams have the best chance at taking an early lead.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers: Matt Moore vs CJ Wilson

CJ Wilson 2011 Stats: 16-7, 2.94 ERA, 223.1 IP, 206K, 74BB, 1.187 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9, 8.3 K/9, 3.24 FIP

Matt Moore 2011 Stats (AAA): 12-3, 1.92 ERA, 155 IP, 210 K, 46 BB, 0.968 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9, 12.2 K/9, 2.20 FIP

The Rangers, without Cliff Lee for this year's playoff run, will send staff ace CJ Wilson to the mound to seek an early advantage. Wilson has been dependably excellent this season, ranking in the top 10 in the American league in ERA, hits per nine innings, strikeouts, and strikeouts per nine innings. Wilson pitched quite well in the postseason last year for the Rangers, posting a 3.70 ERA, 1.110 WHIP, and a 17/10 K/BB ratio over 24.1 innings pitched. 

The Rays will take a different approach to Game 1, starting Matt Moore, an unproven but exceedingly talented prospect. Moore has only made one Major League start prior to what will undoubtedly be the biggest game of his career so far. He has also acquitted himself admirably, lasting five innings while surrendering no runs and striking out 11. 

While Moore is undoubtedly an excellent prospect with a promising future, the edge for this Game 1 matchup has to go to the veteran Wilson, who has proven himself as both a legitimate MLB ace, and as a strong postseason pitcher. Look for a low-scoring contest in which the Rangers go ahead for good in the sixth or seventh innings, once Moore has tired a bit and begins to make mistakes.

Prediction: Rangers 5, Rays 2

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees: Justin Verlander vs C.C. Sabathia

Justin Verlander 2011 Stats: 24-5, 2.40 ERA, 251.0 IP, 250K, 57BB, 0.920 WHIP, 0.9 HR/9, 9.0 K/9, 2.99 FIP

C.C. Sabathia 2011 Stats: 19-8, 3.00 ERA, 237.1 IP, 230K, 61BB, 1.226 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9, 8.7 K/9, 2.88 FIP

The later of today's two Division Series matchups features an absolutely fantastic pitching contest between Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia and Cy Young award favorite Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers.

Verlander has put together a historically excellent season, twirling a no-hitter and leading the league in wins, ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, and ERA+ (170), while receiving serious consideration for not only the Cy Young, but the AL MVP award. Verlander has been the most exciting man in all of baseball this season, giving the impression that he could legitimately throw a no-hitter every time he steps onto the mound. Even the most die-hard fans of other teams tune in to Tigers games to see the masterclasses he puts on every five days. Verlander has accumulated a league-leading 8.6 WAR (wins above replacement), and is clearly, far and away, the most dominant pitcher in either league this season. The thought of facing him 2-3 times in a series should be keeping every postseason team awake at night.

C.C. Sabathia, however, should not be overlooked as a dominant ace. Most of his numbers are as good or better than those he posted in his Cy Young-winning 2007 season, and he would be a strong candidate for the award this year did he not pitch in the same league as Verlander. Sabathia's career postseason numbers are not excellent (4.66 ERA, 1.565 WHIP in 77.1 IP), but he has been the consistent ace of the Yankees oft-troubled rotation this year, and should continue to be a serious worry for any teams facing the Bronx Bombers this fall. 

Sabathia is one of the top five starting pitchers in the American League, but no one this season has come close to matching the incredible accomplishments of Verlander. This game should be a nail-biter of a pitcher's duel, but expect Verlander to will the Tigers to victory on a dominant pitching performance despite the Yankees' high-powered offense.

Prediction: Tigers 3, Yankees 1