Scouting Skinny on State: What to Expect from Mississippi State on Saturday

A little more than a year ago, Georgia's traveled to Starkville to face their mongrel mutt counterparts of the SEC West. The 'Dawgs, who were already reeling from a poor start, suffered a salt in the wound loss, their first in Starkville since 1956.  Georgia's AJ Green-less offense was largely impotent, scoring but two field goals until crossing the goal line with about a minute and a half remaining in the contest. Both teams come into this year's meeting 2-2.  

Series History: Georgia leads 16-6; 11-2 at home; 9-2 in Athens. 2010 MSU 24, Georgia 12, first loss in Starkville since the 1950's.

2011 Record: 2-2, 0-2 SEC

Coach: Dan Mullen, 2nd year, 11-6 

Recruiting Class Ranking: 44th (Scout, Rivals)

Wins: 9/3 @ Memphis (1-3 Conference USA) 59-14; 9/24 Louisiana Tech (1-3 WAC) 26-20

Losses: 9/10 @ Auburn (3-1 SEC) 41-34; 9/17 LSU (4-0 SEC) 19-6

Vs SEC: Feast or famine. 34 points and 381 yards in a loss at Auburn, and 6 points and a 193 yards (only 52 rushing) in a home loss to LSU.

FBS Rankings:  Passing Yardage - 75th/209.8 yards/game (vs. Georgia  43rd/257); Rushing Yardage -  26th/217.5 yards/game (vs. Georgia  42nd/185.7); Team Scoring - 53rd/31.3 points/game (vs. Georgia 26th/37.3); Scoring Against - 58th/23.5 points/game (vs, Georgia  55th/23.3)

Offense: Mississippi State utilizes a "Tebow Style"/Florida Spread offense. Mullen was Tebow's offensive coordinator and is considered a cutting edge innovator of the spread running attack. Though MSU's attack is nearly perfectly balanced this season, with 870 yards rushing and 839 yards coming through the air, the running game remains the cornerstone of its offense. It should be noted, however, that almost 40 percent of their rushing total was rung up in a 41-34 loss at Auburn, and 40 percent of their passing yardage came against Memphis in Week 1.

MSU's spread centers around quarterback Chris Relf. A Tebow-like load at 6' 4", 245 pounds, Relf poses a real threat when he calls his own number. To date, Relf has rushed for 233 yards. Though averaging just under 3 yards a carry on the season with his longest run being just 17 yards, Relf's constant threat, reading and probing, really keys this offense. 

While passing has never been his strong suit, born out by his modest per game attempts, yardage and completion rate in 2010, he appears to be attempting to throw more this season, and his completion rate has risen slightly from 58 percent last season to over 61 percent. Relf, like Aaron Murray, has thrown three interceptions thus far. If Relf falters or if MSU is forced into comeback mode, look for bullpen relief from Tyler Russell (9-17-1 for 193 yards). Nevertheless, look for State to establish the running game with the option, draws, counters, powers, and reverses, all staples of the spread. 

Combined with Relf's rushing yardage, senior running back Vic Ballard's 407 yards this season constitutes about 40 percent of State's offense. Ballard averages an impressive 7 yards per carry, much of it between or just off tackle. His production is supplemented by running relief from sophomore LaDarius Perkins (146 yards, 4.6 per carry).

State's passing game id predicated on play action passes, and the MSU receiving corps does not feature a marquee target. As might be expected in the spread offense, the ball is spread around to a number of players. To date, ten different receivers have caught between 4 to 8 passes apiece. The top two receivers at this point are Ballard and Perkins leaking out of the backfield.

Junior Chad Bumphis leads the wideouts with 7 catches for 99 yards, and he has also been on reverses, as has redshirt freshman Jameon Lewis (6 catches, 80 longest), and has even attempted a "trick-eration" pass. The bread and butter for this catching crew is when Relf and his running posse get opposing DBs to bite up in run support, allowing receivers to be freed up from feigned blocking assignments.

The offensive has a blend of experience and youth. Redshirt freshman center Dillon Day and sophomore left guard Gabe Jackson are flanked by largely senior veteran players.

State likes to score early and has scored about of one-third of their points in the first quarter, and 60 percent of their total points in the first half. Their game is not well-suited to coming from behind in the 4th quarter.

While State has been very efficient in the opponent's red zone this season, scoring on 13 of 15 opportunities for an 87 percent success rate, their touchdown conversion rate, 6 of 15, is only 40 percent inside the enemy twenty. By comparison, Georgia has managed to find the end zone on 10 of its 15 red zone opps, while scoring only one less occasion (12-15) than MSU has.

Strategy: Simple. focus on shutting down the run. Don't create running lanes by applying too much pressure, which, of course, is contrary to Georgia's style. Force Relf and company into passing situations often. When Relf is forced to throw the ball 25 times or more, he is out of his element and has a low winning percentage. In this process, avoid allowing big plays in supporting the run. The front seven will largely be responsible to this task. Of course, this is more easily said than done.

Defense: MSU employs a 4-3 defense with a secondary consisting of two corners, a strong safety, and a free safety that can be employed in different ways. State face the challenge coming into the season of replacing a veteran linebacking corps.

While they have given up but 163.5 yards rushing per game and have yielded under 200 yards per game through the air, they are giving up 23.5 points per game. Of note, they have given up touchdowns on 50 percent of the encroachments into the State red zone.

Teams have moved the ball on them, ringing up over 20 first downs per game. Opponents are completing almost 71 percent of their passes and have an edge in time of possession. Their philosophy would appear to be a bend but don't break mentality, They have intercepted 5 passes and recovered 3 fumbles.

Their leading tacklers are strong safety Charles Mitchell (19 solo, 17 assists), linebackers Cameron Lawrence (15/18) and Brandon Wilson (14/18). 

They have recorded 8 sacks for losses totaling 51 yards, 4 of those coming against Louisiana Tech last week.

Strategy: Control the ball with first downs and keep Relf sidelined. Pound away at the defensive front and dink and doink to loosen the secondary with short play action completions and screens. Wait for the chink in  the secondary to show itself then burn their DBs with the big play. 

Special teams: The Bulldogs kicking game is solid but unspectacular. Junior placekicker Derek DePasquale is 7-8 on field goal attempts thus far and has converted all of his PATs. His longest field goal, however, is only 42 yards. Sophomore punter Baker Swedenburg has averaged just under 41 yards per punt on 24 opps, with a long of 53 yards. 

While the punt return unit has has few opportunities this season with only nine returns, they have shown big play capability. DB Jonathan Banks has carried the lion's share of the load, but receivers Chad Bumphis returned a punt for 82 yards against Louisiana Tech last weekend, and wideout Jameon Lewis has a return of 17 yards. Opponents are averaging 12 yards per punt return versus State's coverage.

MSU is averaging just under 16 yards per kickoff return, while allowing opponents almost 22 yards per return.

Penalties: 26 penalties for 191 yards

Prognosis: Georgia's Bulldogs get the nod due to the game being played between the hedges in Athens. However, if Russ's boys can't stop Bully's running game, it might become a shootout similar to the one that MSU had at Auburn with team scoring last winning the game.