Ranking the Big Ten Conference's Strength of Schedule in 2011

The non-conference season is finally over (with the exception of two holdouts that still have one non-con game apiece left on their schedules) and you know what that means.

Better opponents, better play and better games.

The only cupcakes from here on out are those few schools that have been driven to the Big Ten cellar for any number of reasons: Purdue by virtue of injuries; Minnesota by virtue of Tim Brewster; and Indiana by virtue of just being Indiana.

The coming weeks will feature heated rivalries, bitter rematches and the introduction of a storied program into its new digs.

As the next two months play out we will learn a lot about each team as the Big Ten race unfolds. One thing we won't know for a while is who had the easiest path. But that doesn't stop us from trying.

Here is a ranking of all 12 Big Ten schools based on strength of schedules. The rankings were done with a number of factors in mind. Rivalry games at home, cupcake massacres on the road and a lack of long road trips all helped a team's rankings. Rivalry games on the road, tough stretches against ranked teams and a lack of Big Ten doormats on the schedule all tended to hurt a teams chances at a high strength of schedule ranking.

Rankings go from the easiest schedule to the most difficult.

12. Illinois

vs. Northwestern

at Indiana

vs. Ohio State

at Purdue

at Penn State

bye

vs. Michigan

vs. Wisconsin

at Minnesota

Crossover Games: Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern

The Illini have the most advantageous schedule in the Big Ten this year for two reasons. First, every tough game the Illini face will be at home, including both challengers for the Leaders division (OSU, Wisconsin). Second, Illinois gets the arguably the conference's worst four teams on the road.

The more you look at this schedule, the more it becomes clear that Illinois should be able to challenge for double digit wins this year. The hardest road test is Penn State, and that game at this point looks like it should fall in the Illini's favor. Taking two in the home slate is also very possible, with Ohio State in a state of flux, Northwestern getting its first start since last year from Dan Persa and Michigan's boom-or-bust offense. The only home game that seems out of reach is against Wisconsin.

With a little luck the Illini could finish the season with seven wins in the Big Ten.

I'm just as surprised as you are.

One thing is for sure, no team has an easier road to Indianapolis than Zook's crew. If he screws this up there is absolutely no saving his job.

11. Iowa

bye

at Penn State

vs. Northwestern

vs. Indiana

at Minnesota

vs. Michigan

vs. Michigan State

at Purdue

at Nebraska

Crossover Games: Penn State, Indiana, Purdue

There are good and bad consequences to having a 12-team conference that only plays an eight-game conference schedule. The bad consequences are that some teams don't get to play marquee conference matchups. This year, Iowa will miss out on playing Ohio State and Wisconsin, two teams that the Hawkeyes have played very close in the recent past and provide the kind of exciting matchups that result in national broadcasts.  

However, for a team trying to win a conference title, this is also the good news: Missing out on OSU, Wisconsin and Illinios greatly increases the Hawkeyes' chances of running the conference slate undefeated. Iowa should thank its lucky stars for a schedule that includes the worst three teams from the Leaders division.

Add home games against Legends Division challengers MSU, Michigan and Northwestern, and the schedule sets up to be very manageable. The biggest challenge is the road closer against Nebraska.

By that point the Hawkeyes could be playing for a lot more than what I can only assume right now is pride over corn farming or something like that.

10. Wisconsin

vs. Nebraska

bye

vs. Indiana

at Michigan State

at Ohio State

vs. Purdue

at Minnesota

at Illinois

vs. Penn State

Crossover Games: Nebraska, Michigan State, Minnesota

Want to know two easy steps to having a manageable conference schedule?

1. Be the best team in the conference (so that you don't have to play the best team in the conference).

2. Land the conference's worst three teams on your schedule.

Wisconsin's chances at a Big Ten title look even better when you realize that the Badgers get the toughest test of the year, Nebraska, at home, as well as three almost sure-fire wins against Indiana, Penn State and Purdue. Fans in Camp Randall should have a lot to cheer about.

One downside to such an easy home slate is that Wisconsin must face its two biggest Leaders Division challengers, OSU and Illinois, on the road. Additionally, the Badgers must travel to East Lansing for a rematch against the Spartans—the only team to beat Wisconsin last year.

Luckily, if the Badgers can navigate back-to-back away games against MSU and OSU at the end of October, the rest of the schedule sets up well for that goal that eluded the Badgers a year ago: 8-0.

9. Northwestern

at Illinois

vs. Michigan

at Iowa

vs. Penn State

at Indiana

at Nebraska

(non-con) vs. Rice

vs. Minnesota

vs. Michigan State

Crossover Games: Illinois, Indiana, Penn State

The Wildcats are another team that is benefitting from its crossover games. Northwestern, for its three conference crossovers, gets to go play a terrible Indiana team, a disappointing Penn State squad at home and only one tough challenge in the conference opener on the road against Illinois.

This is fortunate since the Wildcats will be travelling to Lincoln and Iowa City for two tough Legends Division games. However, this is balanced out by both Michigan teams having to travel to Evanston to play the Wildcats.

Most advantageous for the Wildcats are two things. First, the only back-to-back road games involve a trip to Bloomington, before the Wildcats have to square off against Nebraska. While you might call that a trap game, it doesn't feel like a very dangerous one.

Second, if the Wildcats can navigate the first two-thirds of the conference season, the last three games are all at home and include a non-conference matchup against Rice, followed by a game against Minnesota before Michigan State comes to town to close the season out.

If the Wildcats can win five of the first six—definitely possible given the circumstances—the last two home games could put Northwestern in the driver's seat for the Legends Division crown.

8. Purdue

(non-con) vs. Notre Dame

vs. Minnesota

at Penn State

vs. Illinois

at Michigan

at Wisconsin

vs. Ohio State

vs. Iowa

at Indiana

Crossover Games: Minnesota, Iowa, and Michigan

The Boilermakers Big Ten schedule looks a little more daunting because of the one game that isn't a conference test. Because Purdue already used its bye week last weekend, it still has to play its toughest non-conference opponent, Notre Dame, this weekend.

Pair that with a trip to Wisconsin followed by home games against Ohio State and Purdue's most hated rival, Iowa*, to start November, and the Boilermakers won't have an easy road.

Thankfully, between the ND game and November, the Boilermakers have a bit of relief in a stretch that includes home games against Minnesota and Illinois, and road games against two traditional powers, Penn State and Michigan, that aren't as powerful this year.

Cap it all off with a road trip to take on Indiana, and the Boilermakers have the kind of schedule that any team but Purdue could turn into five or six wins.  

For this outfit, three Big Ten wins would be a pretty good season.

*Big Ten mandated crossover rival not guaranteed to be actual rival.

7. Minnesota

at Michigan

at Purdue

bye

vs. Nebraska

vs. Iowa

at Michigan State

vs. Wisconsin

at Northwestern

vs. Illinois

Crossover Games: Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin

Sure, the Gophers have to play the two odds-on Big Ten championship favorites. But that blow is marginalized by the fact that the Gophers get both Nebraska and Wisconsin at home and have a bye week before the October 22 homecoming game against the Huskers.

Minnesota's toughest road tests are a trio of Legends Division opponents—Michigan, MSU and Northwestern. The other road game is most likely to be Minnesota's only Big Ten win the rest of the way—a road trip to West Lafayette to face Purdue October 8th. But that is far from a guarantee.

There aren't many positives for Minnesota fans outside of the comfort that home games against Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska should at least mean that real football comes to the Twin Cities four times this fall.

6. Penn State

at Indiana

vs. Iowa

vs. Purdue

at Northwestern

vs. Illinois

bye

vs. Nebraska

at Ohio State

at Wisconsin

Crossover Games: Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska

The first six weeks of the Big Ten season line up quite well for Penn State. After a trip to Bloomington for what should be an easy win, the Nittany Lions get two home games against Iowa and Purdue. Next comes a road trip to Northwestern and a visit from Illinois before the bye week.

Not a bad six-week stretch, right?

Problem is the Nittany Lions' schedule is severely backloaded. The last three games are a home game against Nebraska, followed by road trips to Columbus and Madison to finish the season.

Even if the Nittany Lions can win four of the first five—a tall task that would include taking two of three against Iowa, Northwestern and Illinois—Penn State is still looking at a very tough challenge to break .500 in the Big Ten this year.

That would be more than enough for another bowl game, but not enough to comfort fans that were expecting a bounce back from last year's disappointing finish.  

Maybe next year.

5. Ohio State

vs. Michigan State

at Nebraska

at Illinois

bye

vs. Wisconsin

vs. Indiana

at Purdue

vs. Penn State

at Michigan

Crossover Games: Michigan State, Nebraska, Michigan

The Buckeyes suffer from a much different problem than Penn State. Ohio State gets to get all four of its toughest games out of the way in the first five weeks of the season. But this isn't an optimal situation for the Buckeyes.

Due to suspensions from last season's NCAA violations, Ohio State will still be without a handful of players, including a starting right tackle and the team's leading returning rusher and receiver for the first home contest against Michigan State.

Those players won't have much time to adjust as the Buckeyes travel to Nebraska the next week and Illinois the week after. A bye week gives Ohio State a break before a visit from Wisconsin. The last four games of the schedule are much more manageable. Home games against Indiana and Penn State should most likely be wins, as should a trip to Purdue.

The one possible stumbling block in the back end of the schedule could be an away game against rival Michigan to end the season. However, if things go poorly for the Buckeyes early in the Big Ten season, not even a win in The Game might be able to save interim coach Luke Fickell's job.

4. Michigan

vs. Minnesota

at Northwestern

at Michigan State

bye

vs. Purdue

at Iowa

at Illinois

vs. Nebraska

vs. Ohio State

Crossover Games: Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State

The Wolverines' season couldn't have started much better. Now it is time for a reality check.

Michigan has run into a brick wall in October following hot starts in each of the last two seasons, and this year looks to be much the same.

After a warm up game this weekend against the hapless Gophers, the Wolverines have back to back road trips to Northwestern and Michigan State.After the bye week and a home game against Purdue, Michigan again has a pair of challenging road games, this time against Iowa and Illinois.  

The final two games are at home, but don't offer much in the way of relief. First Nebraska visits in what should be a game in which the Wolverines are a heavy underdog. Finally, Michigan faces its old rival, Ohio State.

Looking over that slate of games, it becomes clear that the Wolverines have the odds stacked against them in the race for the Legends Division crown. Of the four other teams that could plausibly make a run for the conference title—sorry, Minnesota—the Wolverines will be on the road against three, while facing the odds on favorite at home in the second-to-last week of the season.

If Brady Hoke can get this team to Indianapolis, maybe he really does poop gold.

3. Michigan State

at Ohio State

bye

vs. Michigan

vs. Wisconsin

at Nebraska

vs. Minnesota

at Iowa

vs. Indiana

at Northwestern

Crossover Games: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana

Michigan State's run to the conference title last year was aided in part by an advantageous schedule that laid out well for the Spartans. The Spartans didn't travel any farther than Detroit over the first half of the season, and the first road game out of state was Northwestern.

This year karma has come back to bite the Spartans.

The road slate this year features trips to three Legends Division challengers in Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern. The Iowa game will be a particularly emotional affair, as the Spartans received the only regular season loss of 2010 in a total beat-down in Iowa City. The other road game is no picnic either—a trip to open the Big Ten season against Ohio State. Winning more than half of these road games would be an impressive feat for the Spartans.

The home lineup provides some relief in the form of Indiana and Minnesota—two easy wins on paper. However, the Spartans will see Wisconsin for the second year in a row at home, in what should be a game that Wisconsin looks to get some revenge of its own. Throw in a home game against rival Michigan, and the Spartans won't get many easy Saturdays this year.

Michigan State will need a Herculean effort to repeat as Big Ten champs this year. Even six Big Ten wins—an optimistic guess for the Spartans given the circumstances and patchwork nature of MSU's offensive line—doesn't figure to be enough for an invite to Indy.

2. Indiana

vs. Penn State

vs. Illinois

at Wisconsin

at Iowa

vs. Northwestern

at Ohio State

bye

at Michigan State

vs. Purdue

Crossover Games: Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan State

If being the best team in the conference is an easy way to ensure your schedule is just a bit easier than the rest, being one of the worst works the other way.

On top of playing all five Leaders Division opponents, the Hoosiers pick up three stout tests from Iowa, Northwestern and Michigan State.

The Big Ten slate begins with Penn State and Illinois at home, before the Hoosiers leave Bloomington for a two-week road stretch against Wisconsin—sure to send Hoosier fans into the throes of some serious 'Nam-like flashbacks—and Iowa.

Next, the Hoosiers get Northwestern at home and Ohio State on the road, before the bye week and a season-closing pair of games at Michigan State and a homestand against rival Purdue.

The way the Hoosiers' schedule sets up makes a 1-7 Big Ten season seem less than a 50-50 proposition. All four road contests should be blowouts at the hands of superior opponents, as should home games against Illinois, Penn State and Northwestern. The only hope for the Hoosiers rests in the final game against Purdue, a team that at this point in the season is playing better than Indiana.

If the Boilermakers stay healthy—try to control your laughter there, sports fans—then Indiana could conceivably be touchdown underdogs in the final game of the season.

Zero wins in the Big Ten is a real possibility here, folks. Not exactly the first-year record that Kevin Wilson imagined when he took the job.

1. Nebraska

at Wisconsin

vs. Ohio State

bye

at Minnesota

vs. Michigan State

vs. Northwestern

at Penn State

at Michigan

vs. Iowa

Crossover Games: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State

Welcome to the Big Ten. The schedule-makers didn't do the Huskers any favors when drawing up Nebraska's inaugural season. Nebraska's three crossover opponents just happen to be the Leaders Division's three marquee names: Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin.

Nebraska kicks off the season with games against two of them, first at Wisconsin then at home against Ohio State.

After those two games, a bye week and a trip to Minnesota are the only relief for Nebraska, before five straight challenging games. First, the Huskers get both Michigan State and Northwestern—fellow Legends Division challengers—at home before going on the road in back-to-back weeks to Penn State and Michigan. The final game of the season is back in Lincoln against Iowa on the Friday after Thanksgiving.

The only way the Cornhuskers' schedule could get tougher would be to switch out the struggling Nittany Lions for a strong Illinois team, but even a trip to Happy Valley is no joke given the home-field advantage in Beaver Stadium.

Try to enjoy the welcome tour, Nebraska. You get to do it all over again (sort of) in 2012.