5 Reasons Why the San Francisco 49ers Lead the NFC West After Three Weeks
Following the 49ers ugly victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, Matt Maiocco of the CSN Bay Area tweeted the following:
49ers (2-1) lead the NFC West over Cardinals and Seahawks (1-2), and Rams (0-3). #getyourplayoffticketsnow
If you noticed the subtle sarcasm, you are not alone. I think his point is that it is way too early in the season to get excited about this team being in first place. Well, I couldn't agree more.
After all, we have seen this dance before. In 2008, the 49ers started 2-2 only to finish 7-9 and out of the playoffs. Two years ago, San Francisco started 3-1 but lost seven of their final 12 games to finish at 8-8. This pretty much indicates that starting a season on a good note doesn't necessarily translate to finishing that way.
Still, it beats the heck out of starting 0-5 like we saw last season.
Today I am going to focus on five reasons why San Francisco sits atop the NFC West at this early stage of the 2011 season.
5. The NFC West Is Still Weak
1 of 5No matter which way you slice it, the NFC West is still the weakest division in the entire league. While each team had attempted to improve via free agency, it appears that this "improvement" hasn't translated well to the field on Sunday's. Other than San Francisco, the other three teams are a combined 2-7 with only one outer division win.
Lets take a look at these mediocre teams for a second. It will give you a better indication as to why San Francisco has a full game lead in the division.
Arizona Cardinals: 1-2
I had indicated before that Arizona's trade for Kevin Kolb would not solve their issues and could lead to a marginal upgrade overall. Well, that is exactly how it has played out thus far. Arizona is averaging about 20 points per game (19.7), which places them in the bottom third of the league.
Kolb has been an upgrade over Arizona's trio of signal-callers last season, but it hasn't translated to wins on the field. He is completing over 60 percent of his passes and does have a quarterback rating in the low 90's. Still, Arizona has struggled in other aspects of the game, mainly pass defense, where they rank 25th in the NFL. Some say you are only as good as your quarterback, but it seems with Arizona, that your quarterback is only as good as your team. Right now, the Arizona Cardinals just aren't that good.
Seattle Seahawks: 1-2
Despite a surprising victory over the aforementioned Arizona Cardinals, this team isn't that good. After playing San Francisco relatively close in the season opener, Arizona got shut out and destroyed by the vastly superior Pittsburgh Steelers in week two. That game is more of an indication of where this team is that than the win against Arizona.
Their offense is just abysmal, at 10 points per game. Tarvaris Jackson has been sacked 14 times in three games and isn't able to get the protection that he needs to find fluidity on offense. The only reason why Seattle has won a game is because their defense ranks in the top half of the league.
St. Louis Rams: 0-3
Their schedule has been brutal to start the season, and it doesn't promise to get any better coming up. St. Louis has Washington, Green Bay, Dallas and New Orleans on the slate in their next four games. There remains an outside shot that this team actually starts 0-7, which would take them completely out of the playoff picture.
While the schedule is difficult, the Rams aren't doing themselves any favors. They are dead last in the NFL in rush defense (174.3 yards per game) and rank 23rd in pass offense. It may be too early to call Sam Bradford's 2011 season a sophomore jinx, but he hasn't played well thus far. The former No. 1 overall pick is completing just 50 percent of his passes and has two touchdown passes in three games. The Rams are also 31st in point differential, minus 20 points per game.
Draw your own conclusions here, but it does seem that these other teams have a lot more issues than your San Francisco 49ers. Each team is struggling a great deal in nearly every aspect of the game and don't appear to be getting any better.
4. San Francisco's Rush Defense Is Among the League's Best
2 of 5It doesn't appear that the 49ers are missing Aubrayo Franklin much this season. They rank third in the NFL in rush defense, giving up slightly more than 60 yards per outing. Granted, they haven't gone up against a top rush offense thus far this season. Seattle ranks 28th, Dallas 30th and Cincinnati 17th. Still, they have been extremely impressive in this aspect of the game.
Some experts concluded that Ray McDonald would only be a pass rushing specialist in the NFL, but it hasn't turned out that way so far this season. He has been extremely stout in rush defense and surprisingly holds up against zone blocking schemes. Through three games, he has recorded seven tackles and is able to free up linebackers by taking on double teams.
Another aspect of San Francisco's rush defense that may surprise you is how Isaac Sopoaga has stepped up in replacement of Aubrayo Franklin. He is doing a stand-up job up the middle and doesn't allow many holes for opposing offenses. The majority of yardage that offensives have gained on the ground against San Francisco has been on the outside.
I also like the way Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman are complementing one another. They truly look like one of the best inside linebacker tandems in the entire league. I don't expect that to change anytime soon either.
San Francisco's rush defense is for real, and if this success continues, there is no doubt in my mind that they will be able to force opposing offenses into more third-and-long passing situations, which favors their secondary a great deal.
Note: The 49ers have not given up a 100-yard rushing game since November of 2009 (25 games), when Ryan Grant rushed for 126 yards.
3. Defensive Scheme Seems to Be Confusing Opposing Offenses
3 of 5New defensive coordinator Vic Fangio promised to implement a new style to San Francisco's defense and has he ever. This unit has been able to disguise blitz packages and zone cover reads a great deal thus far this season.
You are seeing them blitz from nearly every angle of the defense. Corner, safety, inside linebacker etc.. This keeps opposing offenses off balance and enables San Francisco to utilize their most talented players more than before.
What this does is create mismatches for offenses both on the outside and the inside. It enables San Francisco to force them out of the comfort zone and into situations where success could be limited. The simple nuance of changing blitz packages throughout the duration of a drive will hamper the timing of opposing offenses.
Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman blitzing from the inside with either Ahmad Brooks or Parys Haralson dropping back from the outside is an example of this. If San Francisco is able to continue this nice mix on defense, it will end up creating more turnovers and scoring opportunities.
Remember, San Francisco ranks No. 1 in the NFL in turnover margin at plus-six.
2. NaVorro Bowman Is Doing a Great Job Opposite Patrick Willis
4 of 5One major question heading into the season was whether or not NaVorro Bowman could fill the large shoes left by Takeo Spikes departure to San Diego. So far, he has done that and more. Through three weeks, Bowman is fourth in the NFL in tackles with 30 and leads the San Francisco 49ers in that category.
He has done a great job working within the confines of Vic Fangio's scheme. This means that Bowman hasn't strayed from what has been practiced like a lot of first year starters usually do. Instead, he has done a great job in coverage and blitzing. The ladder has been extremely effective, as Bowman has pressured the quarterback multiple times over the first three weeks. Although he is yet to come away with a sack, these pressures have a dramatic impact on the fluidity of opposing offenses timing routes etc..
Bowman's coverage ability has surprised me a great deal too. He had major issues in this regard as a rookie last season. It looks like the former Penn State star has worked with the coaches and even Patrick Willis a great deal on this so far. This makes him a complete player.
One thing that I haven't covered in regards to Bowman is probably the most important aspect of his play: Patrick Willis. The All-Pro linebacker's numbers are down and for good reason. Offenses are honing in on him a great deal thus far this season, which makes sense.
That said, they will not be able to do that moving forward because Bowman has played so well. Look for offenses to go away from the major concentration on Willis and start to focus a little more on Bowman. When this happens, No. 52 will be in position to dominate in the front seven. This causes dramatic matchup concerns for offenses and leaves quarterbacks and ball-carriers extremely vulnerable up the middle and on the edge.
I had predicted that NaVorro Bowman would be a Pro Bowl performer relatively early in his career, but there is no way I thought he would play like that just three games into his second season.
1. Alex Smith Playing the Best Football of His Entire Career
5 of 5Saying that "Alex Smith is playing his best football" doesn't really mean much. After all, he has been a below-average starting quarterback since coming into the league in 2005. This cannot be said over the course of Smith's last eight starts; just look at the stats.
.602 completion percentage, 1,542 yards, 10 touchdowns, two interceptions (5-3 record).
Statistics aside, there seems to be a new aura in regards to how Smith holds himself on the football field. He seems to have a whole lot more confidence than in previous seasons and is acting the part of a true leader for the offense. With Frank Gore struggling, this aspect of Smith's performance cannot be understated.
Right now, you can say that Smith is the "great game manager;" he is throwing for less than 200 yards per game but is completing about 70 percent of his passes and has one turnover in three games. That said, I noticed a little bit of a change in the 49ers offensive philosophy late in their win against Cincinnati on Sunday.
They opened up the offense a lot and used more spread formations, something that Smith does extremely well. This creates gaps in the defense and enables him to find zones to throw the ball. Jim Harbaugh said they were working on that in practice last week, so let's hope he continues to implement this style more often moving forward.
At this point, Alex Smith has earned the confidence to be given the "keys to the offense." This means that San Francisco needs to open it up more moving forward and give him a chance to take his game to the next level. After all, this is precisely what he has done over his last eight starts.
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