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NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread: 5 Best Bets for Sunday

James BrownSep 23, 2011

The NFL schedule for week three is filled with plenty of exciting games to watch and wager on.

Sifting through the latest NFL odds looking for the best bet is a favorite pastime of football fans across the country, but finding the best bets is not always an easy endeavor.

After investigating the schedule looking in search of the best bets, I have uncovered these gems for week three in the NFL.  

St. Louis Rams (+4) over Baltimore Ravens

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The Ravens started the year off with a resounding victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers only to be pounded by the Tennessee Titans the following week.  

The Rams have yet to win this season and are suffering through injuries to key personnel.

So why are they a best bet in week three?

Sam Bradford is looking more and more comfortable in his new offense, as evident by the big numbers he put up against the Giants on Monday Night Football. Bradford posted a career-high 331 yards, and he should be able to expose the Ravens secondary on Sunday.

The latest NFL odds have the Rams as four point home underdogs, and that will attract plenty of public money. The line has opened at 3.5 and has been bet up to four points.

This is a bit surprising when you see how the Ravens are as road favorites. The Ravens are 3-10 against the spread (ATS) in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0, clearly struggling to cover the number on the road.

It might be surprising for most football fans that the Rams actually rank higher than the Ravens when it comes to total defense in the NFL.

The Ravens are on upset alert, and the best play is to take the Rams plus the points.

Rams +4

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over Carolina Panthers

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The Cam Newton bandwagon is just about filled.

In fact, Newton has looked so good and earned such a following that the oddsmakers named the Panthers a three-point favorite in this game.

I will take these points.

Rookie signal-caller Blaine Gabbert goes for the Jaguars, and he has looked impressive in relief a week ago against the Jets. He completed five of his six pass attempts in limited action, and actually should give the Jaguars a better chance to win.

This offense is fueled by the running of Maurice Jones-Drew, who will be able to get big gains against a Panthers defense that is missing two starting linebackers.

The Jaguars are fifth overall in the entire in NFL in total defense. This statistic has been overshadowed so far this seasons, but the Jags defense will be big problems for the Panthers on Sunday.

The betting public is backing the Panthers, with 83 percent of the sports betting money coming in on the home team. The home team is the wrong team though, and the Jags will make headlines with a big road victory.

The Panthers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall and will fail to cover the number again.

Jaguars +3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) over Atlanta Falcons

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This line opened up at the Atlanta Falcons minus two and was subsequently hit hard by sharp bettors, moving the line to Tampa Bay -1.5.

The public is still flooding money in on the Falcons to the tune of 81 percent for this game after watching the Sunday Night game against the Eagles.

The Bucs are in a spot I love to look for.

The won on the road outright as an underdog and come home overflowing with confidence. The Falcons are a different team on the road as they shown in Week 1 against Chicago.

The Bucs will establish the run and quarterback Josh Freeman will lead the Bucs to victory.

The Buccaneers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall and will keep a good winning percentage for football betting backers.

Tampa Bay -1.5

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Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) over Detroit Lions

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Always keep an eye out for a divisional home underdog in the NFL.

The Minnesota Vikings need a win now or they can start looking for things to do during the NFL postseason.

The Lions are the NFL’s favorite team to bet on this year and always attract a ton of attention, and this week is no different. Adrian Peterson can still run the ball and the Lions are 13th against the run (The Vikings are 10th).

The Lions are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite and will struggle to win this game. The Vikings pull off the upset and beat the Lions for their first win of the season.

Vikings +3.5

Chicago Bears +3.5 over Green Bay Packers

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I repeat, the divisional home underdog deserves a second look in the NFL. That play gets even more enticing when that team has revenge in mind.

The Bears are a much different team at home, and know how to defend against Aaron Rodgers and the explosive Packers offense.

Bears running back Matt Forte is playing for a contract and is off to a great start. After a tough week trying to protect quarterback Jay Cutler, the offensive line will respond with a strong showing.

The Green Bay Packers rank dead last in the NFL in pass defense. The Bears are 6-2 ATS against a team with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.

The Bears cap off a 'dog weekend with a win over the Packers.

Bears +3.5

Good Luck this weekend!

James Brown is a B/R Featured Columnist. Feel free to contact James at jtsneaks@gmail.com

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