Why Texas Will Be the Next Team to Get Left Out of the BCS Title Game

There are few teams in the country with a resume like Texas, but odds are a good resume won't put place the Horns' in Miami on January 8.

Sure the Mack Brown's team is ranked No. 2 but it will take a slew of events to keep them in the driver's seat.  Sure in the past Texas has controlled their own destiny but this season is slightly different.  So let's get to the meat of this equation.

October 11:  Texas hangs around after being down early against Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl, puts the clamps on Sam Bradford in the second half and takes down the then No. 1 ranked Sooners. Horns' jump to the top spot.

October 18:  Texas puts the first 35 points on the board against Chase Daniel, blasting Mizzou 56-31.  (The game was not as close as the scores makes it seem.)  'Horns stay No. 1.

October 25:  Undefeated Oklahoma State rolls into Austin and plays tough, but still rolls out a loser 28-24. (This one was as close as the score makes it seem.)  Still No. 1.

November 1:  Texas goes to Lubbock to play the Red Raiders.  Brian Orakpo and Quan Cosby both go down with injuries.  The Longhorns play their worst game of the year, only to stage a comeback and take the lead with a little over a minute left on the clock.  Graham Harrell completes a pass to Michael Crabtree with three seconds remaining.  Crabtree shakes off an arm tackle and struts into the endzone with one second left.  Texas falls 33-39.  Drop to No. 4.

So Tech jumps to No. 2, Oklahoma quietly moves to No. 5, Texas drops to No. 4. 

Seemed like the whole thing would figured itself out.  Most of the nation assumed the Tech/Oklahoma matchup would be close.  If Tech were to barely edge out the Sooners then they would be on their way to the BCS Championship Game.  If OU squeaked by Tech, most of the country probably would still think Texas was the better team so there would be no argument.  But just to further prove the NCAA needs a playoff, Oklahoma smashes Tech 65-21 in Norman this past Saturday.  And now the fun begins.  Three teams with identical overall and conference records:

So it seems simple, Tech barely beats a wounded Texas team that played terrible in Lubbock.  The Sooners play well but still lose to Texas by 10 on a  neutral field.  OU bashes Tech at home.  Seems fairly simple, Texas won on a neutral and just scored too soon in their away game.  OU didn't play a tough away game this year and lost in Dallas.  Tech was dismantled in their only away test this year and were the beneficiary of bad tackling on a nearly un-tackle-able player. 

Texas moves to No. 2 in the BCS, OU hops to No. 3 and Tech falls to No. 7.

As of now Texas owns the BIG XII South tie-breaker due to their higher BCS ranking.  But...

OU goes to Stillwater this weekend for their Bedlam Series with Oklahoma State.  If the Sooners put the hammer down on Oklahoma State (who Texas was able to beat by just four points) in anywhere near the same fashion they did Tech then presumably Bob Stoops and his team will be on their way back to the Big XII Championship Game for the sixth time in 12 years.

Not so fast, Texas fans.  Do not go rooting for Oklahoma State just yet, an OU loss to the Cowboys on Saturday breaks the three-way tie in the South, leaving Texas and Texas Tech tied at the top of the division.  The bad news for Texas is the Red Raiders own the tie-breaker because of their head-to-head victory of the Longhorns.

Now, a Tech loss and a OU win will put Texas in Kansas City in two weeks but chances are with Tech playing Baylor on Saturday and the Red Raiders still having a shot at the Big XII Championship Game, Mike Leach will rip Baylor's 98th-ranked pass defense apart.

Even if the stars were to align just right and Texas did make it to Kansas City in two weeks, the Longhorns would still have to play a 13th-ranked Missouri squad with payback-minded Chase Daniel in the cold.  Texas has never won a Big 12 title game outdoors, and with a struggling ground game Colt McCoy will need to be at his best to beat the Tigers who face Kansas in this weekend at...  Arrowhead Stadium, the sight of the Big XII title game. 

So with the Tigers already playing what is essentially a rivalry/warm-up game this week in Kansas City, saying Missouri might have a bit of an advantage in the title game over whoever wins the Big XII South might be not be a stretch.

Both Alabama and Florida have tough tests in front of them, and both of those teams taking a loss before the end of the season isn't at all out of the question.  The Big XII could possibly end up with two teams in the National Championship game.  At this point, surprisingly, that probably gives Texas the best chance at backing their way into Miami. 

So on behalf of every Longhorns fan:

Go Baylor! Go 'Noles!  Go Tigers!