Heisman Stock Watch: Big Ten Quarterbacks

The Heisman trophy hasn't made an appearance north of the Mason-Dixon line in quite a few years.

The onset of SEC dominance and the prevalence of the powerful spread passing offenses of the Big 12 over the past decade has made it hard for the Big Ten to get national respect that paves the way for Heisman votes in December.  

Since Ron Dayne won the trophy in 1999 the only other Big Ten player has done so was Troy Smith in 2006.

While players like Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Mark Ingram, and Cam Newton were busy captivating the country, some of the Big Ten's best were struggling to garner a national reputation.

Part of this problem lies on the defensive side of the ball, and isn't really a problem at all.  

Players like Brandon Graham—an outstanding defensive end and possibly the most dominant individual player in the Big Ten in 2009—wouldn't move the Heisman needle on a championship team, much less the bad Michigan defense that he almost single-handedly carried.  

Same goes for players like James Laurinaitis, Jared Odrick, and Erasmus James, all outstanding defenders.  Circumstance is everything.  

Even Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh, one of the best defensive tackles of the past 20 years wasn't able to even crack the top three in Heisman voting*.  

Had Charles Woodson not been good enough with the ball in his hands to get snaps at receiver and punt returner—not to mention the bump he got from Peyton Manning's choke job against Florida that year—the Heisman would still be a purely offensive award.

Thankfully the Big Ten has had a recent resurgence at the quarterback position.

That is even more true this year with the addition of Nebraska to the conference along with its electric dual threat quarterback Taylor Martinez, as well as Russell Wilson's transfer to the land of beer and cheese to lead the Badgers for the 2011 season.

So as we approach the beginning of the Big Ten conference season it is time to take a look at just what kind of a shot each Big Ten quarterback has at making a splash in the Heisman race.

*(The original article claimed Suh wasn't invited to the ceremony.  However, he was invited, and received 815 votes to finish fourth --- the highest fourth place vote total in Heisman history.  Thanks to the commenters who caught this error., a hat tip to both of you.)

Not Even in the Discussion

Before we get to even the most implausible but still somewhat possible fringe Heisman candidates, it is time for a little house cleaning.  

By that I mean, let's take out the trash.  

Five teams feature a quarterback (or in some cases a pair of quarterbacks) that are so laughably far away from even being mentioned in the same sentence as the word "Heisman".

It serves us best to point and laugh at each of them before we move on to bigger and better quarterbacks.

Rob Bolen/Matt McGloin, Penn State:

Neither of these two can even win the starting job in what is less a quarterback competition and more a slap fight between a couple middle school girls.  

How could either have any hope of gaining the support of even the most dyed in blue Nittany Lion fan while still splitting time under center.  

On top of it all, Rob Bolden is playing bad enough that he might be hurting his Heisman chances in the coming two seasons when he could plausibly be penciled in as a candidate.

Joe Bauserman/Braxton Miller, Ohio State:

Any chance a Buckeye had at a Heisman this year rolled out of town in an ill begotten loaner car when Terrelle Pryor set out on the road to fame and glory in the NFL's supplemental draft.

Yes, that was intentionally oxymoronic.  Want to know the case against Bauserman?  Two of 14 for 13 yards.  In one game.  

I don't care if he throws for 500 yards a game the rest of the season, only spearheading a world peace initiative or announcing a cure for the common cold at halftime of the Michigan game is going to make Heisman voters forget 2/14/13.  

As for Miller, sorry kid, it just isn't your year.

Edward Wright-Baker, Indiana:

Ed needs to concern himself with Indiana winning more than one game, not himself winning the Heisman.

Robert Marve/Caleb TerBush, Purdue:

TerBush doesn't even sound like a real name.  Did someone make it up to screw with the fans of other Big Ten teams?  However, Marve is an interesting case.  

The former Miami Hurricane certainly has talent, and more name recognition than the rest of the quarterback contingent hanging around the bottom of the Big Ten.

It would take a Herculean effort to get Marve past the fact that he is now, and will for the foreseeable future be, the quarterback for Purdue.  If Drew Brees couldn't do it, don't hold your breath.

MarQueis Gray, Minnesota:

Gray has the kind of physical skill set that offers an intriguing possibility of a dark horse candidacy.  

He is a powerful runner in the mold of Cam Newton, and is very clearly the only thing his team has in the way of an offensive playmaker.  

However, Gray is nowhere near the passer Newton was and is stuck on a Minnesota team that should be focused on simply avoiding double digit losses this year.

If he rapidly improves and can drag Minnesota to five or six wins this year, then we can put him in the dark horse category for 2012.  That is a pretty big "if".

James Vandenberg, Iowa Hawkeyes

Vandenberg makes it off the dreaded first slide by virtue of three things:

- He is the unquestioned starter.

- He is on a good team.

- He has had a solid season thus far.

Vandenberg moved into the full time starter role over the off season and has never looked back.

Before his big move, Vanderberg played backup to quarterback/great American, Ricky Stanzi, and got a few starts because of injuries to Stanzi over the last two years

Vandenberg's season has been solid thus far—minus a loss to rival Iowa State.

Only if he is able to carry the Hawkeyes through an undefeated season, and let's face it, anything less just won't cut it.

There are worse games to point to as a launching point for a Heisman campaign than Vandenberg's three touchdown fourth quarter to bring the Hawkeyes back from a 24-10 deficit against Pitt last Saturday.

On the season Vandenberg has thrown for 825 yards, including his 399 yard effort last week, for seven scores with a 61 percent completion rate.  These numbers aren't otherworldly, but in terms of what the Iowa offense requires it is good enough.

Unfortunately, what is good for the Iowa offense isn't good for a Heisman run.  Vandenberg is for all intents and purposes a poor man's Ricky Stanzi: smaller numbers, less name recognition, and a love of America that compared to Ricky Stanzi is almost French.

Vandenberg is, even in the most generous case, a year away from even breaking in to the fringes of the Heisman race.

Stock - Rock bottom.

Nathan Scheelhaase, Illinois Illini

It is no coincidence that the resurgence of the Illinois offense coincided with Nathan Scheelhaase's movement to the top spot on the depth chart as a redshirt freshman.  

Last year he was exactly the dual threat that Paul Petrino's pistol offense required.  

Scheelhaase's running ability as a quarterback was a perfect match with running back Mikel Leshoure, and Scheelhaase registered 868 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.  

As a passer Scheelhaase was not dynamic, but within the offense he was good enough to move the ball and keep defenses honest.

He finished the season with 1825 yards passing, a 59 percent completion rate, and 17 touchdowns to eight interceptions.  

However, there were four games in which he failed to pass for over 100 yards compared to only three games of 200 or more yards.

As a sophomore Scheelhaase has seemingly taken another step forward in his passing ability.  

Through three games he has passed for 504 yards and three touchdowns at a much improved 72 percent completion rate.  

His touchdown numbers are low—just three on the year—to go with two interceptions, but he also has run for 184 yards and two scores on the ground.

The biggest question facing Scheelhaase entering the 2011 season was whether he could find a way to become a more efficient passer.  

Completing passes at less than a 60 percent clip was fine for a RS-Fr.

If the Illinois offense was going to take a step forward—especially after losing Leshoure to the NFL—Scheelhaase was going to have to do a better job.  

So far that has been the case as his completion rate has improved over ten percent.  

The toughest challenge of the early season was the game against Arizona State, in which Scheelhaase was 11 for 15 and 135 yards in the win.  

This kind of improvement should serve Scheelhaase well in the future, and by his junior and senior year could make him part of the conversation.  But for right now the only stiff-arm he is getting is from the many Heisman voters who aren't impressed.

Stock - Very low value now, but an intriguing long term investment.

Taylor Martinez, Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Nebraska quarterback is a bit of a wildcard for two reasons.

To begin with, this is the first year that Nebraska plays in the Big Ten, which offers a whole new challenge in terms of opponents.  

The only BCS conference team that is on both last year's and this year's schedule for the Cornhuskers is Washington.  

It is hard to say whether the Big Ten presents a tougher defensive test overall for Nebraska.

Two wildly different sets of common opponents make total defensive stats harder to take as gospel and there are a number of skilled defensive teams in the Big Ten.  

Penn State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Iowa have all put together above average defenses in the past couple years. Ohio State has easily the most raw talent in the conference on its defensive depth chart.

But, more importantly for any discussion of Heisman merit is Martinez's style of play.  Even though the option offense has long left the Nebraska program, Martinez is much more similar to players like Scott Frost and Eric Crouch than classic drop back passers.  

Last year Martinez thrust himself into the Heisman discussion early on the basis of some truly outstanding numbers on the ground—that kept pace with another player to come later in this list.  

Over the first seven games of the 2010 season Martinez rushed for over 100 yards in five. He had a season high 241 against Kansas State, as well as scoring 12 touchdowns during the same span.  

All this production on the ground opened up the secondary for easy passes, and Martinez took advantage to the tune of 1046 yards on a 59 percent completion rate.

However, the sixth game of the season against Texas was a sign of bad things to come for the Nebraska signal caller.  

Held to just 21 rushing yards Martinez was bottled up as a passer as well. This situation would show itself again as Martinez's nagging ankle injury got worse over the course of the season.  

In the final seven games of the season Martinez passed for less than 600 yards, and most surprisingly was held to just 95 yards rushing.  

Martinez didn't score a rushing touchdown after the fifth game of the season and threw four interceptions to two touchdowns in the last half of the season.

This season Martinez has started at the same torrid pace.  He already has 384 yards and six touchdowns on the ground and 490 yards passing with three touchdowns to two interceptions.

However, the low completion percentage (48 percent) is troubling as are the quality of the teams Martinez has compiled such high yardage numbers against.

If Taylor Martinez wants to take the step from September Heisman contender to December Heisman finalist, he is going to need to improve his completion numbers.

He also has to avoid injuries that hurt his ability to be a threat on the ground.  If other teams or injuries slow Martinez down on the ground his game falls apart.

Stock - Average value now, but extremely volatile.  Buy with caution.

Dan Persa, Northwestern Wildcats

Chicago's Heisman candidate is still waiting to make his debut this season.

Persa was one of the leading quarterbacks in the Big Ten a year ago.

This year he had a chance to push his game to another level to establish himself as a mainstream candidate for the Heisman a year after an Achilles injury cut his season short.  

However, the Achilles injury has continued to bother him and thus far has kept him from getting on the field.

Persa's candidacy to date relies on his performance last season, and thankfully he did not disappoint.

Through just ten games last year Persa passed for 2581 yards with 15 touchdowns and just four interceptions with a completion rate of 74 percent and 8.5 yards per attempt.  

When Persa wasn't throwing ridiculously accurate passes to his receivers, he was running for another 519 yards and nine touchdowns.  

These are especially impressive numbers when one considers that Dan Persa averaged 310 yards of total offense per game.

Northwestern as a team averaged just 81 more yards than that on the season.

With Persa's injury the Wildcats have been forced to rely on back up quarterback Kain Colter who has performed admirably but couldn't lead the Wildcats past Army last weekend.

The good news is that Persa is set to return after this week's bye week and looks to be fully healthy.

While a healthy Persa should be more effective than first year starter Colter, it is going to take more than a few billboards in the Windy City to move Persa into the serious discussion with only nine games to establish himself as a legitimate Heisman candidate.  

A run to Indianapolis for the first Big Ten championship game would be a good start.

Stock - Moderately valuable, but not enough time for that value to mature.

Kirk Cousins, Michigan State Spartans

Kirk Cousin just might have come along a few years too late for a Heisman run.  Tall, statuesque, immobile pocket passers just don't get the same love they used to.  

Outside of Sam Bradford, most of the quarterback winners this past few years have skewed toward the dual threat variety.

Thankfully, Cousin's numbers both on the field and in the win column have been very good so far in his career.  

The 2009 Spartans only got to six wins in a disappointing season.

As a sophomore starter Cousins showed promise throwing for 2680 yards with 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a completion rate of 60 percent.  

In 2010 the raw numbers improved only marginally.  Cousins threw for only 145 more yards and one more touchdown and interception.  

However, his completion percentage went up seven percent and most importantly the team finished with 11 wins and a share of the Big Ten title.

This year Cousins has already thrown for 734 yards and four touchdowns to just one interception with a 72 percent completion rate.  

The only black eye on the season so far for Cousins is a loss to Notre Dame last weekend.  

However, the run game was ineffective and Cousins had to shoulder most of the offensive load, and did so with 329 yards passing on over 50 attempts.

Cousins is in a similar position to James Vandenberg (or more appropriately, Ricky Stanzi in 2010).

Because of the team he plays for—one that is solid but lacks the visibility and name recognition of a major program like OSU or Penn State—he will be reliant on the rest of his team to help him win a Big Ten title and reach a BCS bowl game.  

Even then it will be tough to break through.

Cousins has the benefit of having delivered a speech at Big Ten media days this summer.  

While it doesn't help his numbers, it did help put his name in the mind of the national media as something other than the poor quarterback that had to deal with Alabama's wrath in the Capital One Bowl last January.  

Every little bit helps.

Stock - Good value but low ceiling.

Denard Robinson, Michigan Wolverines

The college football world has been in the clutches of the Denard Robinson experiment for well over a year now, and it still seems like nobody really understands what they are seeing.

Robinson was mostly breathtaking in 2010, but spent too much time either injured or ineffectual to stay in the Heisman race past September.

To say that he was just in the Heisman race in September lacks the seriousness with which many had taken his seemingly overnight transformation from gimmicky wildcat quarterback to deft spread and shred practitioner.  

After two years of Rich Rodriguez offenses failing to find the dynamic signal caller that the offense relied on, there was Robinson to save the day.  

He was electric against UConn with 383 yards of total offense in a blowout win to christen the new Big House.  

A week later under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus, Robinson put up an unheard of 502 yards of total offense and three touchdowns, including the winning score with under 30 seconds left in the game.  

A 494 total yard performance against Indiana to start Big Ten play would be his last truly dominant game.

The rest of the season was a mix of injuries, stalled drives, and dazzling touchdowns.  

Robinson finished the year with 1702 rushing yards (6.6 ypc) and 2570 passing yards (63 percent comp rate, 8.8 ypa) while scoring 14 rushing and 18 passing touchdowns and throwing 11 interceptions.  

This was despite the fact that he missed time in most of the Wolverine's games, including almost a complete half against Iowa and the second half and three overtimes against Illinois.

This year with a new offensive coordinator things were supposed to look different, but that hasn't exactly been the case.  Robinson is still the team's leading rusher and the second leading rusher in the Big Ten (behind Taylor Martinez).  

What is different is Robinson's passing numbers.  His completion percentage against Notre Dame was just 46 percent.  

Yet in 11 completions he passed for 338 yards and four touchdowns including the game winner with two seconds left on the clock.

What does all this mean for the coming year and Robinson's Heisman chances?  Who the hell knows.

One thing is for sure: Denard Robinson is capable of a wide range of outcomes every time he takes a snap.  Want to see a simple pass for first down?  

You might get a 45 yard heave into double coverage for a touchdown or an interception on a screen pass (a screen pass!).  Want to see Robinson to pick up a few yards?  

You might see him run into a wall of defenders or slice through a hole in the line that is barely visible and be off to the races before the safeties even realize he is still on his feet.

Honestly, it is all in play right now.  While that isn't good for the cardiac health or sanity of Michigan fans, it is more than exciting to watch.

However, if Robinson hopes to extend his Heisman candidacy past September this year, he is going to need to work on passing the ball more consistently, keeping the Wolverine offense on the field by converting third downs, and staying healthy.

Stock - Think dot-com stock in the late 90's.  This thing is going to grow dangerously fast, but could collapse and take the whole thing with it at any moment.  The whole thing in this case is the Michigan offense.

Russell Wilson, Wisconsin Badgers

Eight slides in and we finally get to the meat of this thing.

Russell Wilson is a legitimate Heisman contender the likes of which the Big Ten has not seen since the last guy who won.  Let's run down the list:

History - Wilson came to Wisconsin from NC State where he was a first team all-ACC quarterback in 2008 and second team all-ACC in 2010.  

While at NC State he passed for 1955, 3027, and 3563 yards with 76 touchdowns to just 26 interceptions.  On top of that he added 1083 rush yards and 17 touchdowns.

Team - After producing three thousand yard rushers, eleven wins, a share of the Big Ten title, and a Rose Bowl birth in 2010, the Badgers entered the season as the unquestioned conference favorites and a top ten team with the addition of Wilson.

Wilson fills the only glaring weakness the Badgers had coming in to the season.

Stats - Through three games Wilson has already thrown for 791 yards and eight touchdowns on a 75 percent comp rate (to only one interception) while adding 110 rush yards and a touchdown.

There is no way around it, Russell Wilson at this point in the season has more going for him than almost any other quarterback in the country.  

His team should at least seriously challenge for the Big Ten title—if not the BCS title game.

His offense has and will put up Playstation-like numbers in games against anything but top-25 defenses. He is already well known on the national stage.

If the Badgers win the Big Ten and Wilson produces like history shows he is capable, there is almost no chance he doesn't at least receive an invite to New York this December.

Stock - Strong and only getting stronger.  The real deal folks.