Why the Philadelphia Phillies Can Win World Series Behind Roy Halladay

Another year, another clinch.

While securing the Philadelphia Phillies' fifth straight playoff appearance with a complete-game, shutout victory over the Houston Astros (the same route taken to last year's division championship), Roy Halladay proved again why he's the best pitcher in the National League.

An ace among aces, the veteran hurler ranks among the NL's top five in every major statistical category (ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched, wins) and looks poised to lead his Phillies back to the World Series.

There is no safer bet in the chaos of playoff baseball than Roy Halladay on the mound in October. Here's why.

He's the Best Pitcher in the National League

I know I addressed this in the first slide, but it bears repeating.

Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in his league, bar none.

There are arguments to be made for other NL pitchers—Clayton Kershaw has a better ERA, Ian Kennedy has more wins, Zack Greinke has more strikeouts per nine innings—but a better scrubbing of the numbers distinguishes Halladay from the rest.

If we only take account of the things a pitcher can control, chief among them walks and strikeouts, Halladay ranks above his rivals. He allows fewer walks per nine innings than any pitcher in the game and leads his league in strikeout-to-walk ratio for the fourth consecutive year.

According to FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), an advanced metric that attempts to remove the inconsistencies of fielders and batted ball placement from the equation of ERA, Halladay has been the best pitcher in the NL by a wide margin (2.10 to Clayton Kershaw's 2.37). He also has the best WAR in baseball, his 8.1 placing him well above AL MVP candidate Justin Verlander's 6.7 mark.

Halladay's high ERA—if you could even call it that—is likely due to a bit of bad luck. Among the top pitchers in the NL his .304 batting average on balls in-play is higher than Kershaw's .272, teammate Cliff Lee's .288, Tim Lincecum's .274 and Ian Kennedy's .274.

All of the dependent variables accounted for, Halladay performs better than any other NL pitcher.

He Keeps His Team in the Game

Talking with other baseball fans I've often made the casual observation that Roy Halladay's bad starts are rarely bad enough to bury his team early. He gives up few home runs, and because of that, even when he gives up hits, it rarely results in a barrage of runs.

And wouldn't you know, the numbers validate that observation.

Since the Phillies average exactly 4.5 runs per contest, let's say that a Phillies starting pitcher must allow four earned runs or less in order to keep his team in the contest. In a different context that might not be true, but it's a sensible starting point for trying to measure these things.

And no one in the NL is better than Roy Halladay than doing exactly that.

Since Halladay arrived in Philadelphia last year, he's started 57 games where he allowed four earned runs or less. Only Tim Hudson has equaled that feat on as many occasions.

In the playoffs that kind of damage control makes a big difference, it saves bullpen arms and forces the opposition to pitch in more high-leverage situations.

No doubt, Roy Halladay's Phillies ought to benefit tremendously from his stingy ways.

He Pitches Deep into Games

In the playoffs it's advantageous to have a starter go seven or more innings for a couple of reasons.

One, it helps save the bullpen in a long series. More importantly, though, it creates a bridge to the back end of a bullpen. If the starter goes seven innings the manager usually has the luxury of then handing the ball to his two most dominant relieves (in Philadelphia's case Antonio Bastardo and Ryan Madson).

And once again, no one does that better than Roy Halladay.

Halladay has hurled seven or more innings 51 times since joining the Phillies, four more then Felix Hernandez, the second-best over that same period of time.

His Experience Against the AL East

Roy Halladay doesn't just know the AL East, he knows he can dominate the AL East. With the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees still the most likely candidates to win the American League crown, that knowledge could prove useful in a World Series matchup.

Over Halladay's last five years in Toronto the right-hander won more games against the Yankees than anyone else in baseball, posting an 11-2 record to go along with a sparkling 2.30 ERA.

And although his numbers against the Red Sox over that same period of time are not quite as impressive (9-8 record, 4.01 ERA), 21 starts against Boston gives Halladay a level of familiarity with the Boston lineup that ought to help.

More than anything, I think the fact that Halladay pitched in American League ballparks under American League rules for so many years gives him an edge most NL pitchers can't claim. Halladay understands the nuances of the game in each league, and in the World Series, that kind of insight helps.

Now, He's Been There Before

Last year's foray into the playoffs was a first for Halladay, and with it came the amazing (no hitter!), the good (solid start against Giants foiled by Cody Ross) and the meh (an injury in Game 5 of the NLCS).

This time around Halladay has the benefit of perspective, and I would imagine a better of idea of how to best exert himself.

Halladay's strengths play well in the postseason, and this year he'll get a chance to show the world why.