Little Giants, the Sequel: Previewing Notre Dame vs. Michigan State

Michigan State at Notre Dame

South Bend, IN; 3:30pm NBC

These teams certainly won't need any introduction this Saturday when they take the field under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus.  Last year's game is more than fresh in the minds of both teams.

Perhaps the gutsiest call of the season came last year in the last play of the first overtime between these two teams.  Michigan State had held Notre Dame to a field goal on its overtime possession, and the Spartans, it seemed, had been held to a field goal as well.

Instead of settling for the field goal, Mark Dantonio called a fake field goal, punter Aaron Bates threw a seam route to Charlie Gantt, and "Little Giants" became the play to talk about for the next few weeks.

From that point on, the trajectory of the two teams couldn't have been any different.  Michigan State, its first test passed, rattled off wins against Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern and Penn State en route to a share of the Big Ten title, a Capital One Bowl birth and an 11-win season.

Notre Dame continued its early season slide by losing to Stanford and eventually losing starting quarterback Dayne Crist to injury.  The Irish salvaged the season with a few close wins on the back of an improved defensive effort and got a bowl win against the turnover-prone Miami Hurricanes.

Fast forward a year and roles are strangely similar to what they were before the game in 2010.  The Irish opened the season with big expectations and a crushing loss to Michigan, and the Spartans come into 2011 trying to prove to everyone that it isn't back to the "same old Spartans."

Vegas favors the Irish.  Turnover margin favors the Spartans.

History guarantees that no matter who wins, it won't be easy.

When Michigan State Runs the Ball

The Spartans have one of the best trio of running backs in the country in juniors Edwin Baker and Larry Caper, and sophomore Le'Veon Bell.  Baker is the No. 1 back of the three.  He took the starting duties early last year on his way to a thousand-yard season.  So far in 2011 he leads the team with 141 yards (5.9 YPC) and a touchdown.  Bell broke out as a true freshman last year before seeing his production drop off in the second half of the year.  This year he leads the Spartans in touchdowns (three) and is second in yards (109, 4.7ypc).  Caper has emerged as the third down specialist of the group and is already the leading receiver from the running back position (three receptions, 37 yards).

The one question mark surrounding the Spartan's ability to produce yards on the ground is the state of the offensive line.  Michigan State lost three starters over the offseason, both tackles and center.  The battle to replace these starters has involved a number of underclassmen and two position switches from the defensive line.  So far this year the line has struggled to produce at a better than average level—only four yards per rushing attempt—against less talented competition (Youngstown St., FAU).

Working to stop the Spartans will be a big and talented defensive line.  Lewis Kapron-Moore, Sean Cwynar, Ethan Johnson and Louis Nix are all regular fixtures on the Irish three-man defensive line, and the unit gave fits to the Michigan offensive line last week, disrupting the Wolverine run game and holding the running backs to a combined 10 yards on eight carries.  For the season, Notre Dame has only allowed 3.5 yards per rush.

Behind the line in the Irish's 3-4 defense is primarily Manti Te'o, the middle linebacker and do-it-all man on the Irish defense.  Through two games Te'o leads the Irish in tackles (14), and is tied at the top in tackles for loss (two) and sacks (one).  The rest of the linebacking corp, including Carlo Calabrese and Dan Fox, has been solid but not spectacular so far for the Irish.

Advantage: Even

Michigan State's running backs are too good to stop completely, but the Irish front seven is strong enough to get the best of the inexperienced Spartan front line. 

When Michigan State Passes the Ball

The Spartans backfield gets even better when you move from running back to quarterback.  Third-year starter Kirk Cousins is one of the better signal-callers in the nation and could be in line for a number of postseason awards with a good year.  Cousins has been deadly accurate over the first two games, averaging better than 80 percent for his completion percentage on 42 throws for 400 yards.

Half those yards have gone to the Spartans new all-time leader in receptions, BJ Cunningham.  Cunningham has 203 yards on 14 catches and one score this year.  When Cunningham is covered, Cousins can go to Keshawn Martin, a dangerous playmaker who is also used in the return game and trick plays.  The third option at wide receiver is former quarterback Keith Nichol.

If those options are covered, the Spartans can always look to a pair of very talented tight ends: Brian Linthicum and Dion Sims.  The Spartans will face the toughest task yet this season when they square off against Harrison Smith and the rest of the Notre Dame secondary.  Smith has all-American talent and anchors an experienced group that has seven outstanding quarters of pass defense to its name so far this season.  The eight quarter (plus two minutes at the end of the third quarter) is the final quarter of last week's game when Denard Robinson passed for 279 yards and three touchdowns in just eight completions.  A couple of those touchdowns came at the expense of Gary Gray, one of the Irish starting cornerbacks that was victimized by the flurry of jump ball fade routes run last weekend.

Even with Robinson's super-human effort at the end of the ND/Mich game, the Notre Dame defense is holding its opponents to just 53 percent passing, 233 yards per game, and three interceptions to five touchdowns allowed.

Advantage: Michigan State

Notre Dame's pass defense has been mostly solid, but that was in a full game against "Turrible" BJ Daniels, and three quarters of Denard Robinson at his shakiest.  If Robinson can explode for more than 200 yards in one quarter, Kirk Cousins should be able to pick apart this secondary without too much trouble.

When Notre Dame Runs the Ball

The Irish have a solid one-two punch at running back, with primary running back Cierre Wood handling most of the workload and bigger back Jonas Gray coming in as a change of pace.  Wood has 238 yards in two games this season and is doing it at 5.2 yards per attempt, while adding two scores.  Gray has 10 carries on the year and has racked up 83 yards on them.

The steady success on the ground is partially thanks to a big and experienced offensive line—the Irish's five linemen average 6'4", 305 lbs.  Right guard Trevor Robinson is the most experienced, with over two years starting experience.  Zack Martin, Braxston Cave and Taylor Dever also have a year of starting experience under their belts.

Lining up opposite the Irish offense is a promising, but ultimately inexperienced, defensive front seven.  The headliner of the group is defensive tackle Jerel Worthy.  Worthy has already garnered mention as a possible top-10 draft pick in next spring's NFL draft, and he is the cornerstone on which the Spartan defense is built in the post-Greg Jones year.  Flanking him are Tyler Hoover and Anthony White, both of whom have been solid players for the Spartans.  Sophomore William Gholston has the physical potential to be a game-changer in the end, but he is still young and inconsistent.

Behind the front four are three good, but young, linebackers.  Max Bullough steps into the gaping hole left by the departed Greg Jones, and while Bullough is a long way from replicating the production of Jones, he has stepped into the role nicely and provides a solid tackler at the heart of the Spartan defense.  Chris Norman is another solid, yet young, option at linebacker for the Spartans.

Advantage: Even

This more than likely skews toward the Irish, but points are deducted for only doing well against Michigan and not setting new rushing records.

Look at how low the bar for Michigan's defense is.  You can't be considered a real rushing offense unless you put up 300 yards on eight yards a carry.

Anyway, Michigan State is still young in the front seven, hasn't played anyone worth a damn and won't get the respect until it is earned.  The Irish should be able to move the ball at five-ish yards per carry and get Wood over 100 yards for the day.  If not, then MSU might have itself a defensive line.

When Notre Dame Passes the Ball

It gets caught by the other team.

That's it.  That's the joke, folks.  Tip your waitress.

But in all seriousness, Tommy Rees, why you do dat, huh?

Notre Dame quarterback Tommy Rees does that because he is still a sophomore, and these things take time.  Lucky for the Irish, there is plenty of good to go with the quick shots of bad.  Rees has a 70 percent comp. percentage, 611 yards and five touchdowns in two games.  Rees is capable of making all the throws that the offense requires.  The problem is (and this was obvious on both his interceptions in the ND/UM game) Rees has a tendency to lock on to receiver Michael Floyd and not notice swarms of safeties and cornerbacks swirling around waiting for an interception.

Although to be fair, if you had Michael Floyd to throw to, you would probably zone in just as much. Floyd is without a doubt one of the most physically dominating receivers in the country, and could have been a first round draft choice last year.  Just this year Floyd has 25 receptions for 313 yards and two touchdowns.

When Floyd isn't open and the ball isn't being forced to him through a cloud of defenders, the Irish have TJ Jones and Theo Riddick to throw to.  Both are solid but unspectacular receivers that thrive next to a guy who dominates most double-teams.  The real second receiving option, however, might just be tight end Tyler Eifert, who already has 144 yards.

The defensive backfield for the Spartans is led by team captain and all-Big Ten safety Trenton Robinson.  Robinson joins corner Johnny Adams as the only two returning starters.  Darqueze Dennard gets the nod at the other corner spot after figuring heavily in the rotation last year.  Sophomore Isaiah Lewis gets the nod at strong safety.

Now, the thing is, we don't know much about this group.  Robinson is very good and Adams is solid, but Michael Floyd was an assassin last year against this team going for two touchdowns on six catches for 81 yards.  The Spartans have yet to face a pass offense with a pulse this year.

Advantage: Who the hell knows?

I know you read this looking for all the answers, but this is far and away the hardest thing in the preview to predict.  Notre Dame has an uncoverable monster at one wideout spot, and three solid pass catchers who would very much like single-coverage all game, thank you very much.  Rees is capable of getting the ball to these guys with little trouble...until he has a sophomore moment and locks in on Floyd despite Floyd being 30 feet off the field getting water and getting cheerleader phone numbers by the hand full.

Meanwhile, MSU lost two starters off a very good defensive secondary, but replaces both with young players who have marginal starting experience.  Even with a deep and experienced secondary last year the Spartans gave up 369 yards and four touchdowns in this game to Dayne Crist a week after a concussion.  Oh yeah, and someone has to cover Michael Floyd again this year.

I can see Tommy Rees throwing four interceptions and a touchdown or four touchdowns and an interception.  I could see Michael Floyd putting the team on his back for 180 yards and two touchdowns, or only getting three catches because the Spartans blanket him and let anyone else beat them.

With all else being even, this is the matchup of the game.  Consider it "Tommy Rees' propensity for drive killing red zone interceptions into triple-coverage" vs. "Michigan State's ability to contain Floyd and the Pips long enough for Rees' brain to short circuit."

How Does It All End?

If I were a betting man—and if gambling were legal—I would be throwing money at Michigan State like my life depended on it.  Consider that the Spartans are getting five points from a team that:

- Has a defense that allowed 28 points to be scored in the last fourth quarter it played, leading to a 17 point comeback and two go-ahead touchdowns in the final 1:12.

- Has an offense that has turned the ball over 10 times in two games, with half of those turnovers coming deep in the opponent's territory.

Logic says that Michigan State wins this one by at least seven points.  MSU is a solid team that takes care of the ball and builds long drives on a balanced offense led by a third-year starter at quarterback.  The defense is fundamentally sound and made its living forcing turnovers in 2010.

Notre Dame is a sports car with flames pouring out from under the hood while a half drunk man power slides through intersections and glares angrily at other cars.  Fast, powerful, capable of some of the very best maneuvering you've seen out of an automobile, but liable to blow up at any moment.

Yet, logic and reason don't have ways to account for the Irish playing a game at home with their back to the wall after starting the season ranked 16th then losing two straight games under very fluky circumstances.  On top of that, one would think that pretty soon Tommy Rees would start to get it.

In the end I think the game is close, because it is always close and will always be close when these teams meet.  We most likely won't be treated to overtime this year, but look for the game to be decided in the final two minutes.

Michigan State 31 - Notre Dame 30