The Big 12 Has Already Lost Nebraska, Colorado, and Texas A&M: What Comes Next?
The Big 12 is within a few nods of the head and a couple handshakes from becoming a completely new look conference. With the exit of Texas A&M, and potentially Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, the Big 12 is quickly becoming a conference that is less potent than the Mountain West.
Nebraska and Colorado have already jumped ship and are playing in the Big 10 and Pacific-12, respectively.
Should those other moves take place, it is very possible the Mountain West would have better teams with the likes of Boise State, TCU, and San Diego State to name a few.
So, what is the future of the Big 12 if there are only six teams left? What schools will they turn to in order to rebuild back into a powerhouse football conference?
There are several options.
Should the Texas Longhorns Stay or Go?
1 of 5To survive, historical force Texas must defeat Missouri, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. This would spur interest from schools in other conferences and put Longhorn football back on the map.
Otherwise, Texas may look into joining a conference such as the WAC or go independent altogether. They already have the Longhorn Network to rely on.
If the Big 12 was going to force Texas out, one might think they would have already done so in order to keep Texas A&M, Colorado and Nebraska. Whatever the reason for not acting sooner, it still may be a viable option depending on how the rest of this season plays out.
Could the Longhorn Network Become the Big 12 Network?
2 of 5Make the Longhorn Network a Big 12 Network? Actually, Texas doesn’t seem interested.
Didn't Texas A&M try that? Surely, conversations with Oklahoma have gone down that road. No, it seems Texas has set its course.
Texas, for the moment, seems adamant at not giving up the LHN or bringing folks into the fold to share it. At one point, they offered to share the LHN with Texas A&M, but when the Aggies hesitated the Longhorns bolted.
Oklahoma is now doing the bolting, from the Big 12 to the PAC-12 and taking Oklahoma State with them, a mandated action by the state legislature. You get two for one in Oklahoma.
And what will Missouri do? Will they stay now that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are leaving? Missouri may actually be headed to the Big 10 along with Nebraska.
Filling the Void
3 of 5Another option is to add teams who are willing to go along with LHN and pick up the crumbs as best as they can. The consideration then turns to what teams? The Big 12 will need six total, which is no small feat.
Who is available?
BYU - they have already said no to the Big 12 and have their own reasons not to join. See link below.
Air Force - not a good “conference” team, but good at football. However, their teams on the women's side provide little competition.
UTEP - with 18,000 students one might think the synergy is there for UTEP to grow. But the market they are in languishes. UT San Antonio has a better chance to be a major market university in the next 25-50 years.
SMU - the school has just 6,000 undergrad students, not to mention a small stadium. The Big 12 needs big players in its stadiums, fans, supporters, and family. Though the market they are in is good, the school itself hasn't grown into a major university in the last 50 years, and probably won't in the next 50.
TCU - could they be persuaded to not go to the Big East and stay closer instead? The problems with SMU are the same problems with TCU. One big difference is they are getting a new stadium that they are expected to fill. TCU might be a viable choice and would help hold the Dallas-Ft. Worth market.
New Mexico and New Mexico State - New Mexico State, with a student population of 18,00, is serves a very small TV market and the state market is poor for football. New Mexico has a student population of 34,000 and ranks as one of the largest schools in the country. Unfortunately, they can't quite get the funding or fan interest to graduate into a big time school in athletics.
Wyoming - here's a good FCS team that is currently playing out of its league and doesn’t know it. With a student population of barely 12,000 and the lowest state population in the U.S., Wyoming is better suited to the Big Sky conference than the Big 12.
Houston - a major U.S. population market, 40,000 students, and an endowment approaching a half billion, Houston could grow in the next 10 years into a major collegiate competitor in any sport. This would be a solid candidate for the Big 12.
Rice - 3,600 undergraduates, 3,400 graduates, and not much support for football. Same problem as SMU and TCU, only worse.
Colorado State - this school may surpass Colorado in fan base and get the Denver market back. Colorado State has a larger student population than Colorado, and nearly a half billion endowment says alumni support is good. The Denver metropolitan market makes it a contender.
Boise State - good candidate but it's a small market and not well rounded as an athletic program beyond football. And the blue field gimmick would have to go, because the Big 12 isn’t into gimmicks. Though Boise has 21,000 students, its endowment is a paltry $61 million.
Nevada and UNLV - Nevada are up and coming but play in a small market. Though UNLV has a student population of 30,000, they can't get off the ground in athletics or money. It will languish for Nevada will surpass anything UNLV does in this regard. Nevada has just 18,000 students but they are growing and have a nice stadium.
San Diego State - with a solid California market, good fan base, and good stadium, this could be a viable Big 12 school. 34,000 students and their basketball and football programs are hitting their strides. The TV market is also very good. The PAC-12 may have done themselves a disservice by overlooking them.
Fresno State - perhaps if you add San Diego State, Fresno State could be a good trip for basketball, baseball and other sports where you need two for a road trip. But with 25,000 students, it is dead last in money among all of these schools.
Hawaii - too far away and too expensive to travel. Like Fresno, poor, but they do have a good facility for both baseball and football. A great draw, big distractions, and 20,000 students that will only increase. Hawaii is another unknown, and certainly the PAC-12 should have looked at them. Maybe the Big 12 should too.
If the Big 12 added both California schools, Hawaii and Boise State, then came back for Air Force and Colorado State, it would have a winning combination.
That would allow all teams to play each other and leave room for two non-conference games. There would be a natural “Pacific” and “Plains” divisions and a 14th game for two schools—the Big-12 Championship and then bowl games. That would make 13 games for all schools, 14 for as many as seven or more, and 15 for two of them.
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Make the Big 12 a Texas-Only Conference
4 of 5The Big 12 could very easily be comprised of all Texas schools.
Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas State, Texas San Antonio, Texas El Paso, Rice, Houston, SMU, TCU, and North Texas State could all theoretically be candidates. This would allow each team in the conference to compete for the title of best team in Texas.
The Big 12 champion could hopefully then head to a BCS bowl each year and gain revenue for Texas institutions.
Of course there are other options. None of the teams listed make up for the ones being lost. They are simply the best of what will be left once the current conference is completely gutted.
This could leave the Big 12 merging with the best of the Mountain West, whose teams already rejected BYU from having its own channel and network access.
Where Does the Big 12 Go from Here?
5 of 5Which option do you favor? Independence for Texas? A Big 12 that merges with the best of the Mountain West? Or the fourth option, a “Texas Conference?”
As long as Texas is dedicated to the LHN, it is going to be forced out or accept teams in the Big 12 that are not much more than the glory of the Mountain West.
The remaining Mountain West teams would probably then have to scramble into the WAC. That would be ironic, since the Mountain West was born from teams made up of the WAC.
The bottom line? Texas accepts its fate in a reduced stature Big 12 along the lines of the Big East, or is forced into independence.
Why BYU will not join the Big-12:
5 Reasons Texas Goes Independent:
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