Michigan St. vs. Notre Dame Predictions: Analyzing Key Matchups

Michigan State has doused Irish dreams in recent years. This time around, Notre Dame looks to stifle the Spartans and get their season back on track.

After a soul-crushing defeat last week at the hands of the Michigan Wolverines, Notre Dame trudges back to South Bend a desperate team.

The Irish are favored coming into this game, but it sure doesn’t feel like it.

Last season, Michigan State shocked the Irish with a late touchdown in East Lansing, running a fake field goal for the game-winning score.

Notre Dame should have revenge on its mind coming into this game, but they are also intent on salvaging some semblance of success from the mangled pile of rubble that is their 2011 football season.

Michigan State will be their toughest opponent thus far, and a victory would definitely be a springboard for Notre Dame.

Notre Dame's Pass Game vs. Michigan State's Pass Defense

Though he’s made more mistakes than Brian Kelly would prefer, Tommy Rees has actually been very good since taking over as Notre Dame’s starting quarterback.

He has connected on just under 70 percent of his passes for 611 yards and five touchdowns coming into this game. He is also averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.

Michigan State DE William Gholston could give the Irish offensive line some issues, but both Zack Martin and Taylor Dever have been excellent in protection this season.

As long as Martin and Dever can anchor their positions, Notre Dame line will be able to keep Rees upright against the Michigan State pass rush.

The Spartans' pass defense, meanwhile, struggled against Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic, and Notre Dame’s offense is sure to be a step up in class.

Michael Floyd and Tyler Eifert are among the best in the nation at their positions, and Theo Riddick and TJ Jones aren’t too shabby, either.

Rees will have to limit his mistakes, but if he’s able to make the proper reads, he should have no problem carving up the Michigan State secondary.

EDGE: Notre Dame

Notre Dame Rush Offense vs. Michigan State Rush Defense

The Irish have been outstanding in the run game to begin the season. Cierre Wood has patiently danced between defenders to the tune of 5.2 yards per carry. Jonas Gray has plowed his way to 8.3 yards per rush.

Fumbling the football has too frequently infected the Irish backfield, but when they’ve been able to avoid this affliction, both backs have been excellent.

Against admittedly inferior opponents, Michigan State’s run defense has been remarkably stingy. The Spartans have allowed just 2.8 yards per carry and have yet to surrender a rushing touchdown.

Much of the credit for those numbers can go to Michigan State’s massive defensive tackle, Jerel Worthy. Worthy steadies the middle of the Spartan defense with a Vince Wilfork-like combination of size and quickness.

While Notre Dame’s offensive line has generally paved a smooth road for Irish runners, the center and guard positions are a bit of a weakness.

In short yardage situations, the middle of the line has struggled to maintain leverage against both South Florida and Michigan, which does not bode well against a stacked defensive line such as Michigan State's.

Coach Brian Kelly’s shotgun running schemes will allow Wood and Gray to avoid Worthy and rack up some solid yardage totals, but when the Spartans know the run is coming, they’ll stuff the Irish in their tracks.

EDGE: Michigan State

Michigan State Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

Kirk Cousins has been remarkably effective so far this season, completing nearly 80 percent of his passes and averaging 9.4 yards per attempt. His stat line becomes slightly less impressive when considering the porous defenses the Spartans have faced, but Cousins has a well-established reputation for being an extremely efficient passer.

The Notre Dame pass rush is overflowing with potential, but hasn’t delivered yet this season. The Irish have just three sacks on the year, with only 0.5 coming from a defensive lineman.

Against MSU, Notre Dame will have to rely on its defensive front to generate pressure on Cousins, as the Spartans’ talented group of receiving threats won’t often allow the Irish to blitz.

Michigan State’s receiving corps provides a diverse collection of skill sets. B.J. Cunningham and Keith Nichol offer size, leaping ability and reliable hands on the outside. Tight end Brian Linthicum can stretch the field down the middle. Receiver Keshawn Martin is a speedster who can attack a defense from the slot, backfield, or flanks.

Cousins is by far the most accurate passer that the Irish have faced this season. Unless the anemic Irish pass rush suddenly wakes up, he’ll have no problem picking apart the Notre Dame secondary.

EDGE: Michigan State

Michigan State Rush Offense vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense

In last year’s matchup, Notre Dame was unable to contain Michigan State’s stable of powerful rushers. Unfortunately for the Irish, the Spartans return all three of the backs that racked up a total of over 200 rushing yards last season in East Lansing.

Mark Dantonio’s offense is predicated on a punishing rushing attack that batters opposing defenses with a constant rotation of well-rested runners. Edwin Baker, LeVeon Bell, Larry Caper and newcomer Nick Hill all figure to receive more than a few carries Saturday.

Though the Irish defensive line has struggled to pressure quarterbacks, Ethan Johnson, Sean Cwynar, Louis Nix and Kapron Lewis-Moore have all been excellent at occupying blockers and clogging up running lanes. This has allowed Manti Te’o and his crew of Irish linebackers to rally to the football and shut down opposing runners.

As a result, Notre Dame has allowed just under 2.4 yards per rush to opposing running backs and has only surrendered one rushing touchdown on the season.

Michigan State will undoubtedly make every effort to shove the run game down Notre Dame’s throat, but the Irish rush defense will be stout, as it has been all season. The Spartans may end the day with a solid yardage total, but it will take a whole lot of carries to get there.

EDGE: Notre Dame

Special Teams

In the return game, the advantage clearly goes to Michigan State. Keshawn Martin is always one move away from going the distance and though the Notre Dame coverage units have been solid, Martin is the best returner they’ve faced this season.

On the Irish side, Theo Riddick has shown flashes of brilliance on a few kick returns, but he’s botched just as many opportunities by mishandling the football.

The field goal kicking advantage goes to Notre Dame. Spartans kicker Dan Conroy has missed two of his four field goal attempts on the year.

While Irish kicker David Ruffer has misfired on one of his attempts as well, he’s already established himself as one of the most reliable placekickers in the nation.

In the punting game, despite Michigan State relying on a freshman and Notre Dame sending out a three-year starter, the edge sits squarely with the Spartans. Irish punter Ben Turk was atrocious against Michigan and has a penchant for shanking kicks at inopportune times. If it comes down to a battle of punting and field position, Michigan State has the advantage.

EDGE: Michigan State

Coaching

Mark Dantonio and Brian Kelly are similar in many ways.

Both got their start as an FBS head coach at the University of Cincinnati. Both parlayed success there into a higher profile gig in the Midwest. Both are thoughtful tacticians and skilled motivators.

And their styles couldn’t be more different.

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly is an innovator of the spread offense. His system relies on pace and space. Kelly wants his quarterbacks to get the team up to the line quickly and get the ball into the hands of play makers in the open field.

Mark Dantonio is old school. His teams are built in the trenches and on the ground. His offense uses the pounding run game to set up the play action pass. Dantonio cares passionately about his team, but remains calm and reserved at all times in contrast to Kelly's fiery disposition.

As similar or different as these two may be, they are among the best coaches in college football and the match-up between them is too close to call.

EDGE: Even

Intangibles

Desperation is a stinky cologne, but it's a good motivator.

After all the hype surrounding the Irish coming into the season, Brian Kelly cannot afford an 0-3 start. Notre Dame was the better team in each of its losses, and the Irish know it. They are frustrated but not broken.

Michigan State, on the other hand, is riding high after consecutive romps over Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic. The Spartans are prepared for their first test of the season, but they are just that— untested.

There’s no way to know for sure what’s percolating inside the minds of the young men on both sides of this matchup, but I’d imagine the Irish are quite aware that a loss in this game would not be tolerated. Though Michigan State would very much like to win this game, there's just not as much at stake for the Spartans.

Throw in a raucous crowd in South Bend, and the Irish certainly have the advantage.

EDGE: Notre Dame

Final Prediction

First and foremost, this game will be a battle.

Both rush defenses will be stout, and both teams will throw the ball with impunity, turning this contest into a high-scoring affair. Michigan State will control field position, but the Notre Dame offense will continue to move the ball effectively, as it has all season.

Tommy Rees will toss four touchdowns against zero interceptions, with Michael Floyd running wild against an over-matched Michigan State secondary.

Kirk Cousins will do his best to keep up, passing for a few scores of his own. In the end, the Irish will cash in on the bulk of their scoring opportunities and pull out yet another thriller against the Spartans to get their season back on track.

FINAL SCORE: Notre Dame 41 - Michigan State 35